Congrats...

[TGJB]

...to the TG user and sometimes poster on this forum who nailed the SA pick 6 yesterday for 300k plus.

[jack72906]

I wonder if it was Doc smithkent. Oh the irony...

[TGJB]

Funny, but no. The guy in question is probably the top day-to-day pro player, one of the guys Dr. Kent says don\'t exist.

[magicnight]

Sounds like it\'s high-quality kibble with steak for at least one lucky rescue dog tonight. Congratulations!

[Dana666]

Would be interesting to see how he/she structured the ticket and the strategy used. That kind of info. is worthwhile.

[Rich Curtis]

Dana666 wrote:

\"Would be interesting to see how he/she structured the ticket and the strategy used. That kind of info. is worthwhile.\"

It was a $2400 ticket: 2X2X5X4X5X3. Note: This amounts to about a one-unit play for him. It wasn\'t a too-many-eggs-in-one-basket sort of play. It was the kind of play that he could lose early and take it in stride.

As a rule, if he is singling a horse at nice odds, he\'ll put in backup tickets in addition to the main ticket, expanding the coverage around his single. But this play had no such horse. It was based more on an opinion that several favorites figured to be over-played. He left these horses off his ticket altogether.

Also as a rule, he plays every SoCal carryover. Indeed, despite spending the bulk of his time in Toronto and Miami, he plays SoCal every day through most of the year--such is his conviction about the potency of TG numbers on SoCal racetracks, both turf and synthetic.

Ticket:

Race four: Leaving New York, Warrens Casino Guy (leaving out, among others, Tiz Argent, whose odds weren\'t justified by his TG figures, and who drew outside and ended up losing to LNY on ground).

Race five: Mr. Saturdaynight, Peacock Alliance (playing against Came Aboard).

Race six: Sky Marni, Malusita, Suances de Espana, You Can Dream, Multitasker.

Race seven: Leedstheway (fast early numbers, fast for Mullins, back with Mullins), Captain Kali, Rainbow Goose, and Flashmans Papers (playing against the Puype favorite, Achak, off a two-point new top first 4YO).

Race eight: Striking Dancer (off an O2X), Freedom Star, Stardom Bound, Spirit Seeker, Dream Empress (leaving out the Mott; good numbers were on real dirt and Mott not firing this meet).

Race nine: Champion Ride, Miss Seamless, Laugh Till I Cry. (The first-timers in this race, a Kruljac and a Hofmans, were not much according to Andy Harrington of National Turf, who is never wrong except when he is.)

[jack72906]

Thanks for posting this Rich. Is this how you normally play your exotic tickets? As opposed to the A-B-C ranking of horses?

I\'ve been using the ABCs recently and I understand Crist\'s idea behind structuring tickets this way to be able to spread for less money. Unfortunately, the majority of the time I have the right horses and have done a decent job handicapping but I\'ve been mixing and matching the wrong way. Frustrating.

[Rich Curtis]

Jack,

   You\'re welcome. Let me make it clear that it was my friend who had the Pick Six. I did nothing except watch, root, and listen.

 To answer your questions: He will often put in backup tickets in addition to a main ticket, but he doesn\'t use the Steve Crist ABC method. He considers it too arbitrary. However, he does agree with the principle behind the method: If you are right, really right, about certain races, then you have earned the space to be somewhat wrong about other races and still hit the thing.

[magicnight]

Thank you. I think I understand everything, except the part about Toronto.

[miff]

Congrats,tough pick 6. Like most pick sixes, a few things have to go your way as was the case here.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Thank you, Miff. I agree that a few things have to go one\'s way--if for no other reason than to make up for the things that invariably go the opposite way.

[smithkent]

The DOC salutes anybody that hits a pick 6.  I think you guys have me wrong- I love betting on horses. I especially enjoy the challenge of constructing a multiwager bet that doesn\'t break my bankroll.  I love the pick 4 and have several big scores with that bet. I\'d love to be a regular pick 6 player, since that bet has the odds in your favor when there is a carryover.  You just need a level of capitalization way beyond a mere physician can support- I have a mortgage and two kids in college you know.  

The subject of pro pick 6 players is interesting- there is an area where I\'ve heard you could make a living if you are deep pockets enough. I understand it is a sketchy sort of living- you also have the tax issue to deal with since you will hit IRS limits with that bet every time.  The tax treatment of horse betting is quite disadvantageous- think or how you are taxed by the state right out of the pools, and then have to pay tax again on your winnings- double taxation!

So yes- I can envision this scenario for being a pro horse player-really making a living.  I\'d play the pick 6 only on carrover days.  I\'d have capital of at least 1-2 million to allow for expected losing streaks.  I\'d live offshore in a tax haven where my winnings wouldn\'t be doubly taxed.  I play as a whale with a service that cut my effective takeout to around 5-7%

But for us regular players, takeout and double taxation makes the game ultimately financially unbeatable.

That doesn\'t mean it shouldn\'t be played for other reasons though.

[FrankD.]

Doc,
Time to hone your math skills and horse racing knowledge a bit.
The pick 6 has the highest take out of any wager in North America typically 25 % at most tracks.
Even if you reside in Bora, Bora you are still cashing the ticket in the US and are subject to 20 % fedreal tax + applicable state tax. IE: NY 8 % so on any ticket over $ 5,000.00 28 % is automatically taken out before your paid.
Your now up to a 53 % take out or double tax as you prefer.

Please let me know the house that will give you a 46 % rebate to get to a 7 % net take out ? I\'ll sign up pronto.

Also when you get to the third day of a carryover at a major track and are heading towards a $ 500,000.00 pool your betting against the syndicates that start putting in $10,000.00 and up combo tickets.

I played the pick 6 heavily back in the 90\'s. I hit one for $ 80,000 and several over $ 10,000.00 on typical investments of $ 400.00 - $ 1,200.00.
When the pick 4\'s came into play I changed over to investing a few hundred dollars at a time on multiple tickets and have cashed many 3 zero tickets from 1 to 10 times on some hits.
The pick 3 is an awesome bet if you like one price horse and use him 3x3 or 4x4 in 5 or 10 dollar tickets.

Leave the pick 6 carryovers to the pro\'s and syndicates unless your playing your address or phone number !

[miff]

Just for info there is \"pro\" pick six crew in New Jersey that hit one for $800K a few years ago.From one participant in that group, I am told they are just about even after a few years. They usually bet about $15k on big pool days.

Out of Florida, there is another group that has fared somewhat better, hitting a few big ones(one for $1.5 million). These guys have made a profit over the years in this pool.

I\'ve studied and gambled in the P6 pools(ny and cali) for as long as it\'s been around and have been an\"only\" ticket in NY a few times(never an only in Cali where the pool is normally triple NY)

As I mentioned to Rich Curtis, there is usually an element of \"good fortune\" when you hit a large ticket, that great trip or nose photo you win etc.As a general rule, you will have much more \"bad fortune\" in this pool as willed by the Gods, bad trips, bad rides, etc.Getting all six home is extremely difficult. I know many regular daily players who have never hit a pick six over years.

I was concerned when the BRIS \"syndicate\" started to put hundreds of players together making tickets for $5OK and more on occasion but that turned out to be a rather harmless group.I do not feel that the pick 6 pool can be beat just by large tickets.Case in point, Rich Curtis\' ticket of $2.5k is a nice size ticket but I will bet that there were many people who invested more than that and did not hit it.

Lastly, as to takeout in the pick six pool,in my mind that negative factor is substantially mitigated by pool size and dead money.

Mike

[FrankD.]

Many good points Mike especially about overcoming the takeout with volume. There is a large pick 6 player at the Albany Tele-Theater that will typically play 4-5 k on his own. You always here about when he hits a good one but many more days there\'s a lot of money going down the drain !

The best pro-group story ever was a group out of Philly back in the 80\'s that travelled all over the country when there was a big pool. I was living in Chicago at the time and they had a crazy wager called the Super Bet at Hawthorne & Arlington. It was much more difficult than the pick 6, you had to hit the exacta, exacta & triple in 3 consecutive races. It was nuts and the multiples got crazy !

This group had come into town a few times and took it down for several hundred thousand dollars 4 or 5 time that I knew of. In July 1985 the pool at Arlington Park was $ 800.000 and they came in and bet over 20 k. No one hit. The next day it was 1.4 million and they bet in excess of 40 k and it was not hit.

July 31st 1985 it hit 2.4 million and they came in to be 50 something thousand and were told they were barred from the track. There business was no longer welcome. Dick Duchossois the owner of Arlington Park threw them out.

A Greek restaurant owner hit it that day solo for 2.4 million. This guy had 4 restaurants and paid 5 loan sharks every week of his life !
He figured he got even and quit gambling. True story, no one ever saw him at the track again, he stopped calling in sports bets etc...

That night by amazing coincidence Arlington Park burnt to the ground !!!