nyc1347 Wrote:
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> lets DO this.................
>
>
>
> 1 - Radiohead - nothing bad to say about the
> pattern. Could improve but would need a new
> multiple point top effort off 3 months off. 5-1
> ML is not enough for me in this race for that kind
> of play.
>
> 2 - City Trooper - has gone backwards since that
> 3.75 effort and is not a play to me until shows
> some kind of forward move again. Turf to Dirt is
> %14 but that top would be way too much of a
> stretch to win this.
>
> 3 - Ibboyee - bounced last time out and apparantly
> needed the 50 days off. Im not a fan of playing
> horses off any kind of bounce unless there was
> some kind of excuse and this one has no excuse
> other than a true reaction.. il pass.
>
> 4 - Sum Champ - same as the 3 horse but even
> slower. il pass
>
> 5 - Wilcat Frankie - ran huge first out and has
> clearly run backwards from that effort. Probably
> one to use in exotics due to the number power
> within any in between effort of neg 1 to 6 but i
> wouldnt use on top to win.
>
> 6 - Hear ye hear ye - tricky horse here..
> those 2s that have been run are random but all the
> off efforts of this horse are going forward.
> Plenty of rest and should be primed to run a top
> effort with 56 days off from the last effort AND 3
> months off from the last 2 effort. 8-1 ML
> supplies good odds here
>
> 7 - D\'Funnybone - developed 11 points as a 2
> year old then ran horrific on the polytrack. Some
> horses just dont run well on poly but something is
> telling me that this was just a bad bounce.
> Dutrow hasnt run him since that effort and if it
> was just a bad effort on poly then why not run him
> a month or so after? maybe he was saving him for
> now? who knows.. but to me it seems like the horse
> needed rest after running a whole lot last year
> and thats not a good sign especially getting only
> 2-1 ML today. Too many questions for me on this
> one and a top effort at highweight may not even be
> good enough.. so i will pass.
>
> 8 - A little warm - triple paired the 4s and
> seems to me that this one has (perhaps
> temporarily) reached the end of the line. I would
> expect another pair at best but the jump from 15
> to 4 is just too big for me to think anything
> faster than a 4 in this race.
>
> overall - in my opinion, taking into
> consideration that the 1 would need a new top (at
> 5-1) and the 2, 3, 4 are all going back off top
> efforts i wouldnt expect those to run a winning
> effort and win this race compared to the others.
> The 5 horse with number power could be used
> underneath and wouldnt expect a big number with
> short rest that would win this. D\'Funnybone has
> waaay too many questions for me to be answered at
> 2-1 ML and the 8 to me has reached the end of the
> line.
>
> sooooo... Hear ye Hear ye has the best shot to
> not only run a winning effort here with a 2 but
> has nice rest into the race and offers an overlay
> value at 8-1 ML. So Hear Ye Hear He everyone..
> this one is my play.
Agree that Hear ye Hear ye looks pretty good. There are a ton of reasons to throw out that Tampa effort and a lot of reasons to expect that horse to make a big effort here. I also particularly like the type of trip he will get (the presser of a horse that will be in front but is going the wrong direction). His connections will ensure the price is square.
However, I would be cautious playing too strongly against D\'Funnybone. I think you have misread this horse. He was a contender for 2 yo champion last year. It was suicide to run a horse with a 210 tomlinson on pro ride (which is basically turf) but he had to do it because the 2 yo championship was up for grabs -- I doubt a horse coming from NY liked the heat very much (why I didnt think of that BEFORE the breeders cup is beyond me). To me, the Breeders Cup result is not suspicious in any way. Also, this horse is Dutrow\'s KY Derby prospect. The main reason he did not bring him back in December is that he wants to have a horse in early May. On the theory of such long layoffs being suspicious, a person would have played against both This One\'s for Phil and Big Brown in their South Florida debuts because Dutrow took time off with them and worked with them to come back. That strategy would not have worked out very well. My read is the horse is primed and should have no problem coming back to his 2 yo top in this race. While it holds no appeal to me, I think he would be a reasonable bet to win at 2-1. I agree there is risk in that, for the other horses, this race is their target while this horse is looking down the line, but I also note that this horse ran super figs at a pretty early age, and to come back to them now would be entirely reasonable with the expectation that he moves down even further next race. However, we all know that Tricky Dick doesn\'t want to blow out a -4 and then have to worry about the horse falling apart (a la ThisonesforPhil). If one of the other horses in here freaks, this horse may need to run negative to win.
Now, I know that liking the 2-1 favorite is not anything special, but I would not choose to play this race -- it is just the ROTW and what is on the board here. The problem with this race is that there are only 8 horses in the race and the take in the super in Fla is 25%. If this were a 12 horse race at Santa Anita or Churchill, then you would have a ton of super combinations and the rake off those combinations would only be 19% or 20% and you could construct a very good play with D\'Funnybone on top and your horse and/or the horse TG likes in the rotw analysis underneath and have a shot at some real nice payoffs. Here, even if D\'Funnybone is on top and both horses run in the super at ~10-1 each, you still might not get a great payoff because the other Dutrow could easily run in and you are stuck with the fav and second choice in the super out of only 8 horses. The complexion of the super is hugely different if there are only 8 betting choices (1,680 possible super combos) versus 11 betting choices (7,920 possible super combos) or 12 choices (11,880 super combos). Also, the take is spread over the combos, so the more combos there are, the \"thinner\" the take is (just compare the impact of the take on the win odds of two horses in match race versus its impact on the win odds in a 12 horse race).
As a show bettor, maybe none of this matters to you. You can still bet your horse and cash if he hits the board, but that is not a strategy I would recommend. With only 8 horses, a 17% take, dime breakage, and the risk your horse runs in with both Dutrows, then the show payoff will be pretty bad for a horse that was 8-1 to win. Personally, I do not think this race is bettable. However, if somebody put a gun to my head, I would bet your horse AND the ROTW long shot to win and then just cover each of them under D\'Funnybone in the exacta. To me, that would be the most sensible way to play this race. BTW, there is a lot to like in the ROTW longshot in addition to the strength of a being a young 3 yo 0-2-X play in a spot like this. However, that still does not make the race bettable to me.
