As a rule of thumb I am firm believer in form cycles, bounce theory, development, etc. But I also think it is important to look at more than just the numbers when analyzing them. I think looking at how a figure is earned, and what happened in the race, can often be EXTREMELY important in trying to project where a horse is really at in terms of development.
In Eskendereya\'s case, his first race at 2 came on the lawn at Saratoga, most likely because he is bred to like the grass and Pletcher wanted to get him in a 2 turn race, which can be tough to come by in NY for 2 year olds in the fall. In his debut ESK ran a credible second after rating in mid pack and closing in the stretch. But Pletcher must have seen enough in the race and in the mornings because one month later, for his next race, ESK was shipped over to Belmont for the 150k Pilgrim Stakes. On race day this stakes race came off the grass and was switched to 1 mile on a good main track. And for his first race on real dirt, ESK sat patiently behind horses before splitting the field on the turn. When asked in the stretch, he then powered away from a short 5 horse field to an easy 7 length win and galloped out very strongly. To me, this race and the way he was working leading up to it was a clear indicator that he may actually prefer dirt. The strong gallop out also seemed to indicate that added ground would only help him, and I pegged this guy as one to watch for improvement down the line.
His final start at two came in the Breeder\'s Cup Juv on the Poly at SA. You could say that he bounced. But to me this race was a complete throw out as he encountered trouble on the first turn and didn\'t seem to take to the Poly at all.
The reason I say all of this is that I don\'t think we can really look back too closely at ESK two year old numbers and assess how much development he has left in him, because we really never got to see him run his \"true\" 2 year old top on a fast, dirt track around 2 turns. This is a classically bred, slow developing horse who has gained valuable experience and is beginning to put it all together. He is now being raced under ideal conditions that suit his footing and distance preferences. I don\'t think he has come close to peaking yet. The FOY was only a tip off of what may be yet to come.
Now I am not saying that this is the Derby winner. It\'s still way to early and I would feel much better about ESK if he shows that he can overcome trouble somehow, weave around horses, make two moves in a race or gut out a hard fought photo. I am just trying to make my point about there being more to 2 year old tops than just looking at their sheets and taking the numbers at face value. We have to consider them beneath the context of what a horse was being asked or allowed to do at the age of two.
I\'ve said this here before, but for the sake of making my derby day easy, my personal hope is that ESK goes in the FL Derby, draws the 12 post, gets hung out 4-5W on the first turn, gets stuck behind horses or has to make a middle move, goes wide on the second turn and makes a good showing but gets beat. His figure comes back close to a pair. He then ships to KY and trains like a monster and rolls into Churchill as the 4-5th choice at odds of 10-1 or so. I can then load up on the same horse I have a future bet on and keep things very simple.
I know, it never happens that way. And there is always the Pletcher numbers factor, which is very real and can\'t be underestimated. I\'ll probably wind up on Odysseus or Radiohead or god forbid Dublin or whatever else by the time they go in the gate.
