Tuscan Evening

[nyc1347]

Second off the layoff and scratched last week to run this week. I think we have a very live one here for Saturdays race with Zenyatta.  Already running negatives and gets 8 pounds.  Im very interested to see the thoro figures for the race but pre-analysis looks like Zenyatta is semi-vulnerable here in my opinion!   Heres the link:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/55774/zenyatta-weighted-at-127-for-santa-margarita

[covelj70]

NYC,

I can\'t tell you the number of times I have thought that Z was vulnerable and tried to beat her (including some bold proclamations on this board) but then about 1/3 of the way through last year, I gave up on that money losing exercise.

She has looked vulnerable many many times on the sheets prior to her races and she has obviously not been beaten yet.

To that end, funny story. Before I go any further, let me make it clear for anyone who doesn\'t already know that I think JB is one of the best handicappers on the planet and if he tells me to bet something I bet it no questions asked so this story is meant for amusement rather than second guessing.

2 summers ago up at Saratoga, JB was doing the seminar.  It was the day Indian Blessing was running at the spa and then Z was running that night at Hollywood.  JB does his usual excellent job capping the Spa card but goes a step further and before the seminar breaks, he suggests that \"whatever we do, save your money to bet against Zenaytta tonight at Hollywood\"

So, being the good listener that I am, I took about half of my days bankroll and stashed it away for the Hollywood simulcast later than night.  Obviously the story ends with me crying in my beer and, 2 years later, all of my buddies who were with me at the seminar that day (but who aren\'t TG users) still send me emails everytime that Z is entered that say \"whatever you do, save your money to bet against Zenaytta\"  Everytime JB\'s ears are ringing I am sure!

Morale of the story, don\'t bet against Zenaytta this weekend.

[Leamas57]

I don\'t know why LIS couldn\'t represent a serious threat here either...might have to consider her as well. Did I see St. Trinians not even break in last? What if the idea was \"if she doesn\'t get out well or you don\'t think she has a good shot, don\'t beat her up and we\'ll run her back against Z....?

Thanks for the link.

Leamas

[bobphilo]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC,
>
> I can\'t tell you the number of times I have
> thought that Z was vulnerable and tried to beat
> her (including some bold proclamations on this
> board) but then about 1/3 of the way through last
> year, I gave up on that money losing exercise.
>
> She has looked vulnerable many many times on the
> sheets prior to her races and she has obviously
> not been beaten yet.
>
> To that end, funny story. Before I go any further,
> let me make it clear for anyone who doesn\'t
> already know that I think JB is one of the best
> handicappers on the planet and if he tells me to
> bet something I bet it no questions asked so this
> story is meant for amusement rather than second
> guessing.
>
> 2 summers ago up at Saratoga, JB was doing the
> seminar.  It was the day Indian Blessing was
> running at the spa and then Z was running that
> night at Hollywood.  JB does his usual excellent
> job capping the Spa card but goes a step further
> and before the seminar breaks, he suggests that
> \"whatever we do, save your money to bet against
> Zenaytta tonight at Hollywood\"
>
> So, being the good listener that I am, I took
> about half of my days bankroll and stashed it away
> for the Hollywood simulcast later than night.
> Obviously the story ends with me crying in my beer
> and, 2 years later, all of my buddies who were
> with me at the seminar that day (but who aren\'t TG
> users) still send me emails everytime that Z is
> entered that say \"whatever you do, save your money
> to bet against Zenaytta\"  Everytime JB\'s ears are
> ringing I am sure!
>
> Morale of the story, don\'t bet against Zenaytta
> this weekend.

covel,

No offense meant, but while I agree with your morale, I also see another morale to this story. Never bet someone else\'s pick blindly, no matter how much you respect them. One only grows and improves in this game by making one\'s one mistakes. Besides, this way I know that the guy that got me in this predicament is close at hand to yell at. LOL.
Thanks anyway for the funny story.

Bob

[TGJB]

If I recall, that was one of only two times Smith came through inside on Z (other being BC) and if he hadn\'t my pick, who ran second, would have won. Could be wrong.

Tuscan Evening does not have any negative figures, hopefully NYC isn\'t refering to the turf sign.

[magicnight]

That was Drysdale\'s Model, yes? I remember that day. She was 30-1. I had her only to win. She got about as close to beating Z as any horse ever did (excepting that stiff job last summer). The exacta paid around $100. Ugh.

[covelj70]

this bit about the negative turf sign thing is a classic

[nyc1347]

ok im going off the top of my memory here as i look at 3984384034 horses a day so dont crucify me.  plus i have to see the race when it comes out.. and what struck me with TE is second off the layoff and scratching in last weeks stakes race.  Or maybe im just wrong again  =)

[covelj70]

The entries are out for the race, TE wasn\'t entered.

[Lost Cause]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If I recall, that was one of only two times Smith
> came through inside on Z (other being BC) and if
> he hadn\'t my pick, who ran second, would have won.
> Could be wrong.
>
> Tuscan Evening does not have any negative figures,
> hopefully NYC isn\'t refering to the turf sign.


That was the 2008 Vanity I think..The only time I thought Zenyatta was going to get beat down the lane.  If Tough Tiz\'s Sis does not get stuck between horses and has to move out I think she wins that one..
Mike moved early with her and she was not as dominant down the lane.

[TGJB]

The race I was referring to was at Del Mar in 08.

[magicnight]

The \'08 Hirsch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vVXuRfjSlA

[Rich Curtis]

Bobphilo wrote:

\"while I agree with your morale, I also see another morale to this story. Never bet someone else\'s pick blindly, no matter how much you respect them. One only grows and improves in this game by making one\'s one mistakes.\"

 I find myself disagreeing with your \"morale,\" Bobphilo, and here\'s why: If you have access to the selections of a proven winner, and if you are a loser, then blindly betting the proven winner\'s selections will probably result in your ending up with more money over the long run. And with this money you can, you know, buy things. Plus there will be endless opportunities elsewhere for \"making one\'s one mistakes,\" as you put it. So one can have the best of both worlds by doing the opposite of what you advise. And really, what are the odds that the loser will EVER become a winner?

[Lost Cause]

magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The \'08 Hirsch.
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vVXuRfjSlA

Below is the one I was referring to....I thought this was much tougher than the one above..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hpUJKQOC64&feature=related

[bobphilo]

Rich,

Personally, the knowledge that my winnings are the result of my own intelligence and handicapping labors are just as rewarding as the money won, and adds immeasurably to it in a way that cannot be quantified.
 
But lets say that your financial return is all that matters in racing. If your records show that blindly betting Jerry’s, or anyone else’s picks, consistently brings you a substantial profit, then fine go for it.

However, I can tell you that all the successful horseplayers that I know always bet on their own selections. That does not mean they are not influenced by the opinions and data of those they respect, but they ultimately respect their own judgment and take responsibility where it counts, with their bets that match their own personal style. This is no accident, if one sees himself as forever a loser that will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Total dependence on the opinions of others is poison to ever becoming a good handicapper.

In a broader sense, it’s always a mistake to blindly accept anything just based on somebody’s “I say so”, and that includes politicians and doctors. I once lost a cousin because he blindly accepted everything his doctor said. \"He\'s the expert\" turned out to be his famous last words before he realized that even the experts make mistakes. By all means get the expert opinions but at least exercise your own final judgment and informed consent. By concentrating on the quality of his data Jerry has made clear that he is not interested so much in being a tout as one who hopes to give people the tools to pick their own winners. The product works best when used as intended.

You ask, “What are the odds of a LOSER ever becoming a winner”. With that pessimistic view, the odds are poor. However the chances are much better if one learns to respect their own opinions and acts like a winner. Of course, some have more ability than others, but anyone with a reasonable amount of rationality can learn to be a better handicapper if he makes that his sole goal rather than just being a blind follower.

Bob