The Rebel

[shanahan]

chilly and overcast this AM here, but supposed to be mid 60s and sunny by afternoon.
I keep falling to \"uh oh bango\" looking for some value and expecting strong showing off the rest.  But I have a question for the board:

For the 3YO - how many races are too many in a short period of time?  In other words, I am tossing Cardiff Giant and Royal Express simply due to this being the 4th race in 2 months or so...thoughts?

Although Noble\'s Promise did win at the distance at KEE, that was poly and Cuvee\'s offspring are nothing special as dirt routers.  Toss.

Like most others, I thought Dublin\'s last was quite good, yet troubled.  However, the move forward with just 20 days off could spur regression.  But he\'s been stabled here the whole time, and I know DWL is murder on 2nd time off layoff.  Probable.

Lookin\' at Lucky puts on blinkers (bad stat for Bobby B) after a win?  Add to the fact he\'ll be the fav, no thanks. Definitely not on top.

Leaves me here - uh oh bango, pleasant storm, Dublin on top, with LAL, all trifecta = $15 for the $1.  $2 ex box the top 3.

[jack72906]

I like Dublin today as well. It seems as if everything is \"in place\" for him to win. 2nd off layoff, a good rider switch, and he loves the track. He\'ll be tough to beat.

LAL is still my favorite to win on May 1 which is why I\'d like to see him get beat today:). He\'s lightly raced and should be in great form with only 2 preps going into the Derby. IMO, the addition of blinkers will help him with his tendency to start \"lookin\'\" around when he pokes a head in front.

I agree with you on the \"too many races\" angle. It\'s one of the first things I look at with 3yo this early in the season. I would still look a little deeper into those races though to see if there was trouble, if the horse was compromised by pace or a bad post, and the overall effort put in that day.

Good luck.

[miff]

\"Lookin\' at Lucky puts on blinkers (bad stat for Bobby B) after a win? Add to the fact he\'ll be the fav, no thanks\"

Shan,

The blinkers on call was made by the great Garret Gomez who, for some reason, recommends blinkers on to many trainers for many horses.

Uh Oh Bango is interesting but I wonder if a mid March debut for TC player signals something was wrong along the way or he was tired from his 2 yr old season. The same is true of Super Saver in the Tampa Derby.


Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Lookin\' at Lucky puts on blinkers (bad stat for
> Bobby B) after a win? Add to the fact he\'ll be the
> fav, no thanks\"
>
> Shan,
>
> The blinkers on call was made by the great Garret
> Gomez who, for some reason, recommends blinkers on
> to many trainers for many horses.
>
> Uh Oh Bango is interesting but I wonder if a mid
> March debut for TC player signals something was
> wrong along the way or he was tired from his 2 yr
> old season. The same is true of Super Saver in the
> Tampa Derby.
>
>
> Mike


Mike, looks to me like the connections of SS have the sheet of another SS, Street Sense, nailed to the wall, and are looking to follow the same plan.

As for the Rebel - a lot of question marks, so it might be a good spot to play for some chaos. With all speed/stalker types entered (Dublin will be closer), Pleasant Storm will be allowed to do his thing unhindered from the back, and will like the 1 1/16 layout better than the short-stretch mile. Has a better shot at sucking up for 4th or so, but the odds are going to be huge with LAL and Dub taking a ton of money. Worth the risk as a key.

[Leamas57]

The Rebel is interesting and does suggest some chaos with many track and surface and equipment variables.

Re UOB, he ran wide outside Rule the whole trip at DD and almost won. I am not as impressed with Corbett as I see him pressing the pace--Turf Paradise can make a jockey want to be on the front a lot and Corbett seems to have that habit, though in past trips on UOB he did keep him off the pace a few times. I would like the horse more with someone else on board.

I keep going back to Royal Express as a horse that could make some noise at a price--it\'s mostly because of the speed combined with the Royal Academy sire and the fact that he stayed on at DD on a very heavy surface. I would only want to iclude him in exotics, not as a key.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

I have this feeling that Noble\'s Promise is going to run out of his mind today!  6, 2, 7 buckle my shoe chalk chalk chalk style?  hmmmm in my opinion,  looks like it may possibly be.  Oh and just to add, Dublin is just all over the place for my taste.