Ok lets run down the Florida Derby!

[nyc1347]

1 - Soaring Empire -   Not a fan of horses who come into a race that do not get thru a 2 year old number.  Could improve, pair, or who knows and even at a nice price I will pass.  Too many question for me.

2 - Lentenor - Got thru his 2yo top and paired.  Ive seen so many times horses pair top efforts throw an off race then hit a new top.  With only a month off and already a 7.5 point improvement along with the first time dirt I will say an off effort is more likely than not here.

3 - Pulsion - Bounced off a top effort last year but improved a lot.  had rest and forged 3 points from the 11.  Im expecting a top or new top here but only by a 1 point or so at best going consistent with the horses pattern.  i say a 6 here at best.

4 - PLeasant Prince -   got thru his 2yo top and forged back to it last out.. another one i would expect to run pretty well..  id say a 6-7 effort here

5 - Game on Dude -  one of those horses that run too fast, too early and is completely mis-managed.  Its rare a horse starts its career with a 5 and then of all things improves more with only 30 days off to a 4.5.. now only has 21 days off?  Sounds like this one is doomed. I will pass.

6 - First Dude -   Got thru to a new top last out and this one would be explosive to me any day of the week IF it actually had rest.   Although a new top is possible the 27 days off is makes me wanna slap my head an say damn it!  I would give a pair at best.

7 - Rule -  Got thru his 2 year old top but has shown last year that the 2 effort took something out of him.  Even with the 30 days off I would expect a regression of sorts off the 1 effort and a bounce is possible as well. I will pass.

8 -  Ice Box -  5 point new top first out this year which would normally indicate a bounce next out with no rest to me.  had a full month off and actually improved but with 28 days off again and 2 top efforts I will most like think this one wouldnt run another new top.  MAYBE another 6 and that wouldnt be good here..  even a 2 point improvement wouldnt be good either.. il pass.

9 -  Miner\'s Reserve -   about a 5 point jump and only 21 days off?!  what are they doing?!!?!?!  Bounce city here in my opinion!  Come on really?!

10 -  Best Actor -  ok now follow me here..  runs an 11.. naturally improves to a 9.. tries dirt first time and runs a 15 then a 7.5 (tellin me the 15 was an excuse first time dirt) first time as a 3 year old ( new top)..only 24 days off and runs a 3 point top to a 4.5 (sweet move) and now has 48 days off?!?!  COME ON PEOPLE WHAT ELSE DO YOU WANT THE HORSE TO TELL YOU?!  This is it! DUHHHH  LOL  hes ready to goooo!  this is like your alarm clock rinGing in the morning WAKE UP!! HELLLLO!!! =)

11 -  Radiohead -  improved almost every race and to me is a contender.  I hate the 5 point jump with only 21 days off but being that effort was first time dirt I can say that theres a good chance the horse may regress or bounce but if its 2-3 points only then its still a use in exactas and tris.  

Overall -  Rule has PROVEN to go backwards off a top effort.. Radiohead hasnt but being that the horse jumped forward 5 points is most likely going to mean that it will run an off race.. an off race would most likely still be solid here to get a piece BUT Best Actor has the best pattern.. best timing.. and best chance here to run a new top in my opinion! A new top within the horses pattern would indicate a 1.5 effort.. that be good enough to win to me! also.. TWENTY TO ONE?!?!!?  WHAT?!  GOOD LUCK! YOU KNOW WHAT IM DOING!

[covelj70]

NYC,

Thanks very much for the detailed thoughts on the race.

I have to disagree with you though on Rule\'s pattern.  

I would say it\'s about as healty of a pattern as you could see for a young 3 year old.

He got down to a very big number as a 2 year old then bounced very slightly in winning the Delta Jackpot.  His move backward in that race was very slight considering he was coming off a big new top.

Then, after time off, he comes back and sets a new top in his first start as a 3 year old but it only represents a slight move forward from his previous top.  His slight new top in the Sam Davis is a strong sign of health and given the 5 weeks he has had coming into this, I don\'t think he\'s at all likely to bounce on Sat.

I am not saying to bet him to win because I don\'t think he\'s going to represent alot of value but I wouldn\'t throw him out based on his pattern, to the contrary, I think it\'s an excellent pattern.

Either way.  Good luck and thanks again for the analysis.

[ajkreider]

The 10 and 11 have to overcome the almost certain wide trip going 1 1/8 at GP.  Horses that have done it in the past have been candidates for the best in their crop.  Tough to play, even for a piece.

[nyc1347]

The one point new top with Rule is a very healthy sign.  ALthough I would say that this would be an explosive effort the horse has shown to:

1) need 3 months off from his 2 year old top to run only a 1 point new top.

2)  the 2 tells me that the 8 points of overall development is a number that this horse finally reacted to and the 1, which is obviously faster, should do the same with only 35 days off.

3)   i question base on pattern:  

a.  will this horse run a new top?   no bc it needs 3 months off based on pattern.
b.  will it pair?   well last time the horse had a month off with the 2 effort it went backwards 1.75 points so most likely not.
c.  will it go backwards?  based on the 2 being an effort the horse reacted on with 7 weeks off why wouldnt the 1 do the same thing if not even more?

C to me would be the most logical pick out of the three.

4)  when running these 3 year old races i dont want to play a horse that will pair (unless its a monster number where the horse proved it can come back to) or might be good enough with an off effort.  I want to play a horse showing that it is moving forward in nice steps and shows that it is pointing to a nice forging effort this time out with no questions in my head.



With Best Actor:

1.  has proven with rest it can go forward nice (2 months off).  Has 2 months going into this one and is as fresh as can be.
2.  has proven with less rest to still get thru a top effort.  Important cause off the short rested top is now getting the well deserved rest.
3.  moving in nice steps forward and according to pattern we can project a new top next time out.
4.  has run a mile and an 1/8 and that effort was a new top.
5.  Jokey and Trainer combo have a positive ROI at GP (if your looking at that perspective) and check out the 7 starts they have together.. even though its small the trainer has his horses ready for Javier.
6.  the 15 seems to be an excusable race and should not be part of the thoro pattern analysis in my opinion.

So many positives against so many questions with other horses as well as too many slow horses AND your getting a 20 to 1 morning line!  Its a no brainer to me!

[nyc1347]

and for you workout freaks here is the work tab:



Best Actor 03/15/2010  GP   4F  :49.55  Dirt  Fast  B    
 03/08/2010  GP   5F  :59.85  Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/27/2010  GP   5F  :59.60  Dirt  Fast  H    
 02/17/2010  GP   4F  :48.00  Dirt  Fast  B    
 02/09/2010  GP   4F  :49.70  Dirt  Fast  B

[mjellish]

I think u are making to much of the slight backward move Rule showed.  This was on a sloppy track and he dueled thru quick fractions for the day and fought gamely in a winning effort.  take the slop effort out of the pattern, same way your excusing BA 15 effort when breaking from the 9 post at 1 1/16 at CD.  What does Rule\'s pattern look like then?

[nyc1347]

I understand what you are trying to say BUT its not like Rule ran an 8 in the slop and then came back to a 1  (which would give an indication that the horse hated the slop).   The 4 on the slop was right in line with an off (regression) effort for Rule telling me that this was an effort race.  THAT specific effort was a bounce off of a 2.25 effort.  

With Best Actor the Dirt race 15 is no where near in line with ANYTHING.  Do u personally think that a 2 point move forward (the 11 to the 9) made Best actor bounce 6 points with a month off?!  That doesnt make sense at all.  It makes even less sense when he came back with a brand new top next out and then ANOTHER top off only 24 days rest.  The 15 is NOTHING in this pattern.   With Rule it WAS an effort coinciding with a regression from that 2 and only a month off.  With BA it wasnt.

[nyc1347]

Also want to note that is makes even MORE sense that the 4 was a bounce effort because when the horse did run a 2 effort it came from a 6 point sudden jump!  Any normal horse wouldve probably bounced off the walls with only a month off but he hung in there and ran only 2 points worse.  Overall, he still needed 3 months off for a brand new top last out from that 2 effort and he does NOT have that coming into this race here.  He has the 1 coming into the race but has shown to bounce off the 2 and thats not a good sign to me expecting a top race.  An off or bounce race is more likely in my opinion

[mjellish]

Fair enough.  I don\'t read it that way but I\'ve been wrong before.  I agree that BA looks poised for a top effort, but I think the 10 post is going to hurt him and he has several lengths to make up already.  If I was a show better I would see no value in him at all.  Even if he runs a new top he is likely to get a wide trip, which may be enough to cost him hitting the board.  If he goes 3W 3W at gulfstream at 1 1/8 he may even spit out the bit.  And even if he doesn\'t, depending upon who hits the board with him you may be looking at even money or so to show.  So how do u plan to bet your opinion?

Just curious...

[TGJB]

You\'re basing \"needed 3 months\" on their decision not to run a horse that already had enough earnings for the Derby until February?

[nyc1347]

My whole view is that this is a huge betting race and theres no way he will pay $4 to show even if hes in there with 2 favorites (which is unlikely anyway).  Hes a 20-1 shot and theres a good chance he will go off even more (25 to 40 to 1).  Theres an undefeated colt in here at a ML favorite and the public will go crazy on him especially with a top trainer like Pletcher.  I dont know where you are coming up with a $4 show here. The absolute least I would expect to show would be $7-8 or about %400 return at worst. With that kind of pattern its all a play to me.  I also couldnt pass up the Win and Place either cause it be huge if he wound up winning.

On this play I think the best approach would be a $1 pick 3 races 9-11 all with all with 10.. for $81. I think D\'Funnybone is vulnerable as I thought last time and 6/5 ML with the public money isnt for me.  Its only an $81 investment and not only would beating D\'Funny alone would be big BUT with a 20 to 1 ML on BA this would make this ticket enormous!  Small risk but huge reward!  I think the $81 investment is well worth it and il still have D\'Funny if he runs and will hope for a large price in the 9th too. Im also putting $200 WPS cause its such a huge price and il just leave things be at that point and hope for the best.

From Raw number power alone you are getting 20 to 1 on the fourth fastest horse in the race!  From that point there are many reasons to believe that the faster ones won fire their best.  Anyways,  im risking the $681 cause theres potential here to get $12-$20k+ back here especially if I can get around 40 to 1 or better and catch a couple bombs with the pick 3...  good luck!

[covelj70]

NYC,

I think you are missing the key point.  The fact that he ran a 1 which is a slight new top first out as a 3 year old means that the 2 didn\'t hurt him.  This is a very very healthy pattern.  

Again, I am not going to bet him because he\'s gonna be 2-1, I just don\'t think it\'s smart saying that he\'s gonna bounce bc there\'s nothing in the pattern to suggest that.  You are trying to find something that\'s not there.

Good luck!

[nyc1347]

No. As I look at the horses pattern it shows me that when reaching the 2 level it took something out of this horse only having 1 month rest.   From that 2 effort to the most recent 1 effort that was 3 months of time that went by to get a NEW top effort.   Once again Rule is back to this level where he previously showed a regression only having a month off.  He comes into tomorrows race with 35 days off.  With this being said, if the 2 effort took something out of him with a month off then my opinion is consistent with the horses pattern THIS TIME as well.  Im expecting at least a 2 point regression (or most likely more since he ran a faster race that its never done before).  

The horse was probably put on the shelf til February for rest having the earnings needed for the Derby but that doesnt have anything to do with my view of his racing pattern coming into tomorrows race.

[TGJB]

Let me try this again.

If they didn\'t run him until Feb 13 it was impossible to get back to his top before then (other than his try over an off track immediately following the 6 point top). Whatever the right position on this horse is at the price, the idea that he \"needed\" 3 months is baseless-- there is no way to know what he would have run in January.

[nyc1347]

Cove:

I agree %1000 that this is a GREAT healthy sign! and i think its VERY VERY VERY good that Rule got thru his 2 year old top.  BUT the point is that based on his PREVIOUS effort at the 2 level THIS horse with THIS situation needs more than 35 days off to come back to a new top effort.  THIS pattern is not a forward moving pattern at THIS level unless he has significant rest!  If he went into the derby with 60-90 days off or so from the 1 effort this would be an amazing play cause hes healthy as can be! BUT being that his previous effort at this level showed a regression I am consistent within my opinion that tomorrow with only 35 days off that he should regress or bounce! and I will expect another TOP effort in about 2 more months from now consistent with his pattern.