Ice Box has a ton of stamina influence in the bottom side of his pedigree

[covelj70]

Ice Box\'s dam won the Glen Falls going 1 1/2 miles, his second dam is by Alysheba and his third dam was the dam of Spend a Buck.

The 1 1/4 should not be a problem for this guy.

He has 6 weeks to recover from what seemed like a big effort assuming Zito doesn\'t run him again.

He has already improved ALOT from his 2 year old top so another move forward in the Derby is very unlikely and his running style is tough in a 20 horse field so there are certainly some question marks but the pedigree is there to go the extra distance and he ran a big one today for sure.

[Dana666]

If you just look at him, he looks like the type that will run all day. I\'m not sure the Florida Derby was a really good field when all is said and done, and Rule, in my opinion, wants no part of anything longer than a mile/maybe a mile 1/16th tops, so you have to take that into consideration. But, hey, Ice Box certainly took a step forward at the right time of year. There will be a very fast pace in the Derby this year, so if the front runners melt down. . .you never know. And Ice Box looks like Man O War compared to Mine that Bird!

[Leamas57]

This IB guy reminds me of a Giacomo type. He will be rolling late but have traffic trouble. Last to first in just a couple of poles. I wonder what his futures line will be now? Leave it to me to miss a Zito horse in a route. I don\'t know where my head was as this pace setup should have been more evident. Rules ability to stay on despite the pace was still impressive, though, and it makes me wonder what he could do with gentler fractions. He might be able to get 10 panels if they don\'t blaze through the first half, though I will not play him to win in May.

Leamas.

[nyc1347]

Yea the ones that will be barreling down the stretch when that pace melts down will be Lookin at Lucky and Nobles Promise!

[covelj70]

NYC,

Maybe a bit of humility is in order after the Best Actor debacle yesterday instead of definitively telling us that a son of Cuvee will have a big closing kick going 1 1/4?  Come on man.

Lookin at Lucky is very very live but let\'s try to keep this at a high level.

[miff]

Fla Derby winner comes up ok, maybe in the TG 1 range(99 beyer).Rule did most of the running and wore down late, after being under pressure the entire race.With a better set up Rule could have a punchers chance of getting 10F.

From the first 4 finishes, three of them were positioned 11, 9, 10 after a very fast contested half.Ice Box,a little green(wrong lead most of the stretch) but tries hard.

Looks like Escandeyra has them over a barrel today, pending being sold and all other related stuff that can go wrong. Not sold on Looking For Lucky\'s grindy style which may be his undoing without a good trip.Noble\'s Promise run down from behind in 2 of his three races,not a good sign for 10f.

Couple of preps to go and someone can easily move up into the picture which is getting clearer.

Mike

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Ice Box\'s dam won the Glen Falls going 1 1/2
> miles, his second dam is by Alysheba and his third
> dam was the dam of Spend a Buck.
>
> The 1 1/4 should not be a problem for this guy.
>
> He has 6 weeks to recover from what seemed like a
> big effort assuming Zito doesn\'t run him again.
>
> He has already improved ALOT from his 2 year old
> top so another move forward in the Derby is very
> unlikely and his running style is tough in a 20
> horse field so there are certainly some question
> marks but the pedigree is there to go the extra
> distance and he ran a big one today for sure.


who was that guy telling us he didn\'t like Tabasco Cat on bottom?

oh yeah, that was me.

still not a huge fan, but there was one outstanding  TC filly who was very successful going long, and that was indeed Spice Island. the genes likely came from her dam.

Ice Box will probably wind up like the typical Zito one-run specialist, and will likely uncork that run a few more times before he\'s done. the problem with these guys is that you never know when they are going to pop (though a fast pace is one of the pre-requisites). yesterday\'s race was ripe for a trip-aided long shot, but I picked the wrong one (or two).

the angle out of the race, as far as I can tell, will be to downgrade the horses that picked up the pieces, and upgrade the ones that ran too close to the pace. the exception to the rule might be, well, Rule. compromised indeed, but his speedy trip is getting a lot of press, and I\'m not sure there will be much value in that info next out. a few of those colts with two runs going in will get better as the year goes on.

[ajkreider]

DRF reports that Ice Box didn\'t switch leads in the stretch.

Wondering what the prevailing view here is, concerning that type of behavior.  

It seems to show immaturity, which can\'t happen again if he\'s gonna be a factor in May.  But, also seems to say something about the quality of horse to run another down, despite that.

[miff]

Ice Box looked like Alydar,on the wrong lead the entire stretch. Sometimes it\'s greeness,sometimes it can be a horses way of trying to get off discomfort/stress.In any case it\'s a negative if it continues.

Mike

[Michael D.]

put Ice\'s sheet over Strike The Gold\'s. adjust 4 points, and it\'s essentially the same thing.

[nyc1347]

The debacle yesterday was that Rule was an underlay as well as the other 2 ML faves. For the most part any other forging horse had a great shot to win at a nice price.  I took the next fastest horse that was forging on the Thoros and he wound up not firing and I am not humiliated by that.  Especially when i used profit money from earlier in the day with that exacta winning and I wound up making over $1000 for the day with the $5.40 to show in the San Luis later on in the day.  

NP should not be on that lead in the Derby so what makes you think he cant get a nice stalking trip and bust a nicely timed move in the stretch?  LAL will be coming from even further back.  I would rather pick a horse like NP who is 2nd off the layoff and will have nice rest into the race (not being fully developed) than a horse like Rule that has seemed to run his limitations temporarily based on the rest and pattern analysis.

[miff]

\"NP should not be on that lead in the Derby so what makes you think he cant get a nice stalking trip and bust a nicely timed move in the stretch\".

nyc,

....he already did that twice at shorter distances and got run down.Pattern and rest are definitely part of the equation,not all of it.


mike

[covelj70]

NYC,

You need to get over yourself.

You are a legend in your own mind and very little of what you talk about on this board has to do with Thorograph.

Please stop posting on phantom profits from races that you didn\'t post about.

If you want to do a TG based analysis and put your neck on the line on any race, great, I would love to see it.  I enjoy thinking about anyone\'s opinion on the TGs and it doesn\'t matter if you are wrong. I am wrong about races all the time, there\'s no shame in that if it\'s a decent analytical argument.

However, when you are wrong please show a bit of humility and whatever you do, stop the nonsense about money you won on races that you didn\'t post on.  Finally, please stop talking about how much money you bet on a given race or how much money you made on a day.  First of all, no one believes you.  Second of all, there are people on this board (not me) that bet real money, not the tidbits you are talking about and you embarrass yourself even more when you make a big deal out of winning $1,000 on a day.  That\'s the tip money for some of the people on this board.

[moosepalm]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 you make a big deal out of
> winning $1,000 on a day.  That\'s the tip money for
> some of the people on this board.


Sounds about right. I\'d pay that much for a good tip, right about now.

[Flighted Iron]

I\'m liking Caracortado if he makes he the post at louisville.Reached a 3 on polycrap.Probable bounce last time,but I hoping it was healthy and he will come back to the 3 in the SA derby.Hoping for that type of line coming back on the dirt
at Churchill.Great tactical speed for position in a huge field and has a nice turn
of foot to pounce.His blood is interesting as well.Hoping he\'s overshadowed by all
the big names in May.


Good luck
mjs