Looking at Baffert

[Dana666]

I have to say I\'ve been very impressed with Baffert\'s handling of this colt. I feel no other horse right now is even close to this guy. What I really liked was running him once on dirt at Oaklawn well before the Derby and then shipping back to California;of course one would expect that he\'d be much better on dirt as most smart strike\'s would be, but there\'s no substitute for experience and then bringing Lucky back to his home surroundings,so he will be rested and in fine shape when he does eventually ship to Churchill makes a lot of sense. I know things can change fast with 3 year olds this time of year, but I honestly don\'t see anyone close to him - he\'s so professional, and he has good speed and the ability to finish. This year you\'ll find a lot of fast colts who will not be finishing and lot of one-paced sorts who won\'t be close enough early - Lucky just seems to fit in every category. I know it\'s not what anyone wants to hear but just the way I see it. Baffert has proven to me he really is a Hall O\'Famer b/c even though he detests synthetic tracks, he has adapted to training and racing on them. The dude knows what he doing.

[Dana666]

Hey, he not only knows what he doing - he knows what he\'s doing, too!

[Silver Charm]

He has changed his handling methods too. Lucky was squeezed once last year. For BC Day. He will not be squeezed again this year until Derby Day.

[Dana666]

That\'s exactly right. That\'s what I\'m thinking. Put him in the SA Derby, back on poly-crap, and then when he gets back on dirt for the derby, he explodes. I feel classic-type horses, built like he is, will almost always exert themselves more on dirt than any synthetic surface, so I\'m really (I think) seeing what Baffert has planned, and I like it. I wouldn\'t even care if he lost the SA derby (like Silver Charm) though that\'s hard to imagine.

[Silver Charm]

That is how you get a winner you can bet out on. By getting into the trainers mind. However let me caution Esky may be the one. People close to him think so and he can run from here to South America without a deep breath.  

We need another Sunday Silence, Easy Goer battle royale.

[Dana666]

Yeah, I would think Esky can run to South America, too. That\'s not always a formula for success in the Derby though - you also need many gears and some serious speed, otherwise that stamina doesn\'t help much. Over the years, I\'ve bet so many long distance plodders who based on pedigree should have been right there but the best most of them did was a minor placing. But those Giant\'s Causeway\'s are like that - my fav. bet is a Giant\'s Causeway going 2 turns for the first time in a maiden race, no matter what the previous form. I\'d be real interested to see how he does in the Wood (?). I\'m wondering if he\'ll be close enough with an expected fast pace in the Derby. He\'s a great looking colt though, no doubt. I wouldn\'t mind a cold exacta in the Derby. That works, too.

[Flighted Iron]

\"I know it\'s not what anyone wants to hear but just the way I see it\".

  Dana,

  Quite the contrary.He\'s already 6-1 futures and with a good showing at SA he\'ll
take a ton of cash in Louisville.With all due respect nearly every horse is vulnerable this may 1st purely due to field size and speculation on distance.Just a guess here,but I\'d wager there\'s several others derby day with figures and fat odds that have a legit chance to win.LAL is all yours(and Silver Charms as well).

 mjs

[Dana666]

For the record, I have a very low win percentage in the Derby, so who could blame you for not liking/betting LAL. But I\'ll say, if I happen to like the favorite, which is rare but does happen,and he were ever to win, I\'d do just fine. It wouldn\'t matter if he were 3-1 - the exotics always pay well, so what do I care? I\'m many years over that handicapping/ego thing where I dream of a 20-1 shot in the Derby that I hammer and make a life changing score. If I have a 3-1 shot who wins, I\'ll bet it right, and I\'ll take out more than the dude who had the 20-1 shot anyway. The problem is I can\'t get the 3-1 shot home! Well see how things may change, but if the Derby were tomorrow, I\'d feel pretty confident. Long way to go though.