It's A Game Of Percentages, Guys.

[TGJB]

Good to see the board has livened up a bit, and since we\'re still weeks from the Derby and the Rachel/Z thing is still out there, things don\'t figure to quiet down much going forward.

It\'s a game of percentages, and it\'s as wrong to think that pedigree is all that matters in going a distance (especially given the many horses of recent years that have outrun their pedigrees, I believe Michael D. may have some comments on this) as it is to ignore it completely. The \"examples\" bit is overrated, but it means more when you want to DISPROVE something-- and as such NYC\'s point about Curlin and Summer Bird showing later they could handle the distance is well taken. (You can see I\'ve been reading too many legal documents).

Some percentage of horses not bred to go long will do so anyway-- does somebody really want to take the position that no Cuvee will ever run it\'s top at 1 1/4? (Let alone that his TGI is only 3/4 slower going long, there are MUCH worse). But it\'s also true that some percentage of horses off any pattern, no matter how good, will run bad-- somebody need to show me a Thoro-Pattern category of 100%, good or bad.

So it\'s all about odds relative to percentages, not definitive statements.

[Ill-bred]

I will take the position that no Cuvee will ever run its top at 10f.

[bellsbendboy]

You are both assuming a Cuvee sired runner will ever attempt 10 furlongs...

a very big IF. bbb

[TGJB]

I\'ll tell you what, if NP went straight to the Derby from here with no prep (which won\'t happen) and was 15-1 or so, he would be a definite use for me, Cuvee or no Cuvee. That\'s what I mean about it all being price-sensitive-- at 3-1 the pedigree issue would be enough to make me play against him, at 15-1 number power clearly would make me use him.

Let\'s put it this way-- if the race was at 1 1/8th, in 4 weeks, and he drew inside, you could make a strong case he was one of the two most likely winners. You want to completely dismiss him because of the extra eighth?

And by the way, if LAL or NP backs up next time, it\'s likely to be a bounce, not necessarily because of distance limitations.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

Agree.

Any handicapping angle in and of itself is worthless. Distance, breeding, pattern, pace - worthless, worthless, worthless, and worthless. What matters is the legitimacy of that angle vs what the public has priced in (odds relative to percentages as you say).

As for distance and pedigree, when it comes to the Derby, it\'s probably true that colts with speed oriented pedigrees have outperformed those with the classic distance genes over the years, mainly because tactical speed is such an advantage in a 20 horse field; can\'t remember how many well bred horses I\'ve watched/bet on get banged up in back and not fire. Overall though, I tend to think there is value in playing against fast horses with questionable pedigrees as they stretch out (especially in the 2nd and 3rd generation).

Nobles Promise? Cuvee over Clever Trick is troubling, but it’s out there. The TGI looks ok, and the colt gets stamina from his 2nd dam. I used the horse last year in the Futurity, in part because I thought the pedigree was stronger than it looked. Stride in the final 3/16 of the Ark Derby will be crucial as far as I am concerned. I’ll let others smarter than I focus on the pattern, but I don’t doubt  that you’ll find value if you nail that angle.

As usual though, I think the best way to address all of these issues is to just post a pick, let the chips fall where they may.

[miff]

\"And by the way, if LAL or NP backs up next time, it\'s likely to be a bounce, not necessarily because of distance limitations\"


JB,

I think that because you had LAL fairly slow on synths, his last looks like a big jump up and development from 2 yr old. Big move ups, synth to dirt, are not really producing lots of the next time bounces we expect.Have not seen LAL\'s latest sheet but have noticed the dirt move up from synth really not playing as expected next out.Have you noticed something different?


Mike

[TGJB]

I gave a list of some one-and-done synth dirt jumps before Pionneerofthenile ran in the Preakness last year, and we can add him to the list. Somebody can probably find the list, and if they do I\'m sure people will have additions and exceptions.

Zardana will probably be joining it, we\'ll see whether she runs as well at Oaklawn next time. Likewise if Zenyatta runs on it twice in a row close together I think the first will be better than the second.

The other factor, which I have discussed here recently, is that we breed dirt horses in this country, and have been for a long time. Synth not so much. That makes it even harder to know what\'s a bounce and what\'s not.

[mjellish]

I don\'t look at this as a pedigree play only.  I\'ve seen the horse run, I\'ve watched him come down the stretch, I\'ve seen his gallop outs.  To me, what I see trumps pedigree.  As a recent example, Musket Man wasn\'t bred to get 1 1/4, but he ran well through the stretch and out of the Tampa Derby.  I pegged him before the race as the type of horse that would probably make move on the derby turn and fade according to breeding, but I also said he was a hard knocking sort and would include him in spite of his breeding.  He  sure tried hard to get the 1 1/4 and wound up getting a piece (not that this wound up doing me any good). In contrast,  Noble\'s Promise has absolutely shut down is his gallop out.  I would play him at 1 1/8, but nothing further unless they change his running style or he suddenly shows a new dimension, which is possible at this stage of his development.  Look what happened when they decided to take Mine That Bird far back off the pace and let him make one big run.  I know I didn\'t see his Derby race coming.  It happens.

[miff]

JB,

Zardana is actually 4 for 4 on dirt and just may prefer dirt.Zenyatta, also a dirt winner would be a tough read. I was more referencing, ist time dirt from synth that become \"new\" horses on dirt.Quite a few have arrived from Cali to NY,jumped up and stayed there.I know you recommended one, a Hushion horse, name escapes me.

My point is sometimes a horse is in jail on synth and improves sharply on it\'s preferred surface, dirt.


Mike

[Ill-bred]

If no Cuvee tries 10F, I would win the propositon since no Cuvee would have a top at 10f.  :-)

As for the discrepancy between synth and dirt #s and the jump-up issues....I can\'t tell if everyone\'s #s are bad for synth or if the #s are right as they can be, and the synth just prevents them from running that fast.

I agree with TGJB\'s view that longtime synth/first-time dirt runners are prone to jump-up and injury. Seen it quite a few times now. Perhaps the synth campaign does not toughen them up properly?

[TGJB]

My guess is that many of them are getting fit for a long time but not able to really fire because it\'s really not their preferred surface, and when they do get on dirt they explode and hurt themselves. But it\'s a guess.

[miff]

Not a bad take. Several trainers said that the different landing and planting, synth vs dirt is the one of the culprits.

[nyc1347]

With Nobles Promise being one of the fastest 3 year olds in the nation I think you will see him develop and eventually race in even more 10F races as the year goes on (especially towards the second half of the year).  At that point theres a good chance if he stays in line that he will run his top at 10F because he would be running better than he is now as he would progress forward and racing more at that distance.  He would also be prepping for the Classic so this gives him even more reason especially later down the road.

[nyc1347]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My guess is that many of them are getting fit for
> a long time but not able to really fire because
> it\'s really not their preferred surface, and when
> they do get on dirt they explode and hurt
> themselves. But it\'s a guess.





I agree. I do think though that if a horse shows a pattern of in line poly efforts then jumps big on the Dirt with no reasoning other than just that it ran dirt then the pattern should be taken consistently with dirt and poly. The major projection would be a bounce unless the horse had nice rest going into the next race or had rest prior to that dirt effort from a layoff, such as an LAL or NP currently.  Rest is key either way.

I dont think a horse like Pioneer of the Nile necessarily ran terrible second time dirt because of the it just being \"second time\"  but rather it was a Big bounce from a tremendous derby effort and then only having 3 weeks to recover off an effort he has never done before.

[bellsbendboy]

Two distinct arguments regarding Nobles Promise.

As far as the nine furlong race I suspect he would be bet down to an unbettable level ( for me) versus his chances.  Assuming the Arkansas derby he picks up four pounds and stretches a sixteenth, not out of the question, but surely someone else would be a more attractive play.

As far as ten panels the first Saturday in May...........unplayable at any price to win, and very unlikely to get a piece.  It is not so much the mile and a quarter, but the competition and the added weight.  Nobles Promise who worked this morning (a maintenance five eighths) is still not three by the calendar.  He is a very professional colt, in excellent hands and running him in the Ky Derby would probably ruin him as I expect his connections are aware.

To underscore MJellish offered a prop to a poster and I would go a step further/fairer.  I would take \"any\" horse in the gate to finish in front of Noble\'s Promise straight up! bbb