NYC, you need to rethink your comments on Rule

[covelj70]

NYC,

As a rule (pun intended), we don\'t divulge any of the numbers that aren\'t on the Redboard Room yet but you should order up the Derby Futures package and check out Rule.

He didn\'t bounce as you were so sure of ahead of time and as you were so cocky about after.

Again, it\'s not about you making a bad call on his pattern (I do that all the time), it\'s about how arrogant you were both ahead of time and after the fact, especially given that you were wrong after the fact.

Separately, I can see you why you like Noble\'s Promise so much purely on his numbers power and his pattern but forget the Cuvee part for a second and just focus on the fact that all of his siblings have run better sprinting than routing, including some that were bred better to route than NP\'s is.

[nyc1347]

Either way I have him running around a top effort Derby day.  To me he was an underlay/toss florida derby day based on 30 days off and so many other horses moving forward at huge prices.. with 6 weeks and his last figure makes him even more of a play going into the derby in my opinion especially with the public money going elsewhere.  I still dont think he will win the Derby though but should be a definite use underneath in my opinion.

[covelj70]

very much agree with your read there for him on Derby day all around.

A paired top and 6 weeks rest with alot of room for improvement left relative to his 2 year old top should suit him well.

I am also with you that he\'s probably better underneath on Derby Day but as you also point out, at the rights odds, it would be temping to try him on top depending on what the others do in their final preps and also how many of them even make it to the gate.

This weekend last year Old Fashioned, I Want Revenge, Quality Road and the Pamplemousse were at/near the top of everyone\'s list and none of them even made it into the gate.

Good luck this weekend.

[miff]

Six weeks rest, pattern, top etc,if Rule is one dimensional speed and gets hooked early in the derby,he has little chance. You forgot those variables.If he gets loose or can sit off,not impossible.

No horse in recent history has won the derby off more than 5 weeks.Because of the positioning of the Fl Derby this year, a few guys will attempt to win it off 6 weeks.


Mike

[nyc1347]

Separately, I can see you why you like Noble\'s
> Promise so much purely on his numbers power and
> his pattern but forget the Cuvee part for a second
> and just focus on the fact that all of his
> siblings have run better sprinting than routing,
> including some that were bred better to route than
> NP\'s is.



Just wanted to comment on this.    Cant we make a case for almost if not ALL of the horses that are attempting to enter the derby that they have outrun their sire numbers based on the TGI already?   ALL of these horses are special horses that have higher than normal average thoro figures (based on an overall average within the sire they have come from).  

With that idea being said a horse like Nobles Promise should NOT be looked at like any ordinary Cuvee horse.  NP HAS proved to have a forging pattern beyond the sires average and HAS run distance multiple times and has improved even more forward beyond the sires average number..the same goes for almost every horse in this year (and ANY YEARS) crop.  

AFTER we get thru the idea that each individual horse has established a certain pattern and they are ALL higher averaged horses with certain special abilities then they should, in my opinion, be compared at THAT point to one another and NOT based on something that is universal (which is that ALL these horses have already outran there expectations as a horse coming from ANY sire based on average).  

NP can get the distance and continues to improve such as LAL, Ice Box, every horse! correct?  This has been my point from starting all my posts.  NP has proven to move up from 6F to 9F and improve.. what makes us think he cant get 1 more furlong?!  especially with a forging pattern and rest?  same woud go for ANY horse who has showed a special ability to outrun a sires average by far and go further as time goes on.. correct?

[covelj70]

the problem is that NP\'s hasn\'t been 9f yet.  He got caught going 1 1/16th last time (albeit by a very nice horse) and that\'s as far as he has been.

I have owned enough sprinters that can get 1 1/16th that can\'t go 1 1/8th (let alone 1 1/4) to know that each 1/16th of a mile makes a huge difference when you have a sprinter\'s pedigree.

Now, if you have a ton of stamina on the bottom-side of a pedigree, we have to be more open minded to a horse outrunning the sire statistics.  Certainly this was the case with Big Brown and when I look at this year\'s crop with Odysseus who although by Malibu Moon, has a ton of stamina influence on the bottom side, including Belmont Winner CONQUISTADOR CIELO and Nijinksy and Round Table.  So, I am alot more open minded to a horse with a sprint sire \"outrunning his pedigree\" when I have this kind of bottom side as oppossed to NP\'s dam sire of Clever Trick.  Now NP does have Proud Trusth and Nijinsky two and three back respectively on the bottom side so that at least can let someone dream about the 1 1/4 but as MJ has said, the way this horse got caught going 1 1/16th in his previous races seems to be more evidence that he doesn\'t want to go the extra few panels.

At least we will get another datapoint when he tries 9f in the Arkansas Derby.

All great debate, if nothing else, this back and forth has forced me to do some of the bottom-side pedigree analysis that I would normally put off till derby week.

[nyc1347]

Either way cove we have a horse that is going forward as he gets older and is running better and better.. IF this horse does not get the extra furlong in the near future its not going to be because he cant get it, its going to be because he is going to react off these top efforts he is running now ( such as summer bird).   I can almost guarantee if he stays in line that he will run much better later in the year no matter what the distance is as long as he has enough rest going into that specific race and hasnt tailed away from his pattern. (such as summer bird again or a curlin type example)  

I think there should be more of an emphasis put on horses who prove they cant go 2 turns compared to 1 turn. Horses who only have 1 turn abilities are limited.. horses with 2 turn abilities can go both.

As horses improve and eventually go two turns there should be no reason that these horses shouldnt be able to go from 8 to 10f as the suggested improvement and pattern continues to go forward.  

Once again, all of these horses are running much better than any sire can show on an average basis and are trained and taken care of much differently than horses who are racing at that average level.  Once they hit this level they will peak at a certain point but the distance has nothing to do with it.  If NP or ANY horse races lets say, as an example, a 0 at 8 F then a neg 1 at 9F and a 1 at 10f  ALL of those efforts are perfectly in line with one another.. which means the horse DID get the distance.   IF NP or any horse couldnt ever get the 10F then YOUR personal opinion would have to be (in that same example) that he\'d run a 0 at 8F, neg 1 at 9F but THEN would have to run a 5 or 6 or worse going 10F ALWAYS..  right?   That doesnt make too much sense to me especially when a horse like NP is running better than 3s this year and has developed from last year already.  Theres no reason to think NP will ever run worse than a 3 this year unless its a bounce of some sorts according to his pattern.

[jeffs]

12 People were fired today at NYRA including John Ryan VP are they tryng to finally show they really care about saving $ I think not!

[miff]

NYRA also has allies in Albany trying to permit NYRA to take over NYC OTB\'s telephone and internet wagering, a money maker.What a pair these nitwits at NYRA have, they can\'t run their own business properly and yet want a piece of operating OTB.

Can\'t think of a worse idea than to increase NYRA\'s role in NY racing. Should pass Albany with flying colors.


Mike