La. Derby

[albany]

I believe there are a number of reasons to believe that Stay Put may out run his odds in the La. Derby.  First, his 2 for 3 record at the Fair Grounds obviously indicates he likes the track. His only local loss was in the Risen Star in which he was seriously compromised by a slow pace and wide trip around both turns. There appears to be considerably more speed in the La. Derby to set up his late run. I prefer Stay Put over the other closer (Ron the Greek) because he should be in a better striking position. In this regard, it should be noted that he is showing more speed in his works for this race. I particularly liked his 1:00 1/5 move on 3/19 when he finished on even terms with his very fast stablemate Cash Refund. Finally, his trainer, Steve Margolis, has been red hot of late.

My current intention is to play him more heavily underneath. Is there anything in Stay Put\'s numbers or pattern that would suggest that I should be more aggressive?

Albany

[shanahan]

Albany - I think they all have to catch Discreetly Mine who I feel goes right to the front with WWW.  Stay Put has every chance int he world to improve and be the one to catch him.  I don\'t see Ron the Greek staying on at the end.  Island Soul is the one I can\'t figure...Albarado for Pletcher?

I\'m playing the 2.4.7/ 2.4.6.7.9.11.13
$1ex=$18

[albany]

Shanahan:

Do you think Discreetly Mine needs the lead or can he rate? I think he\'ll be really tough if he can rate off the pace.

Albany

[nyc1347]

Im loving the 5 A little warm in this race.. expecting a top effort off nice rest and forward pattern.  i think Ron the Greek is a toss this race..  Discreetly should react off last as well as Fly Down.  Pletchers horse doesnt scare me in here.. improved a lot total and against this field will be more likely to run evenly from what i see.

I think the 9 and 13 could be used and could pop really good today though.


In a betting perspective this seems to be a great exotic opportunity.  Il be wagering a $30 exacta box 5, 9, and 13, $4 tri box with those.  Will also tri-key the 5 on top with the 9, 13 with all for $10. and a part reverse for $2 the 9, 13 with 5 with all and hope for bombs away in 3rd place.  Good Luck everyone!

[shanahan]

alb - after listening to the radio shows this am and the FGDS gal, your horse is likely to one of the top favs...good luck.

[albany]

Hope not. I believe his true value to be about 4.00-1. I expect he\'ll be overlayed at 7.80-1.

[sekrah]

I love the #13 Drosselmeyer

Using the 7,9 underneath and I think Im gonna throw the 5 A Little Warm in there.. Good numbers and pedigree suggests he\'ll like the longer distance.

[drbillym]

I actually think wowwowwow will try for the lead but a surprise could come from the 12, backtrack.  Just cuz he was a 25000mcl and is 30-1 M/L, he should not be overlooked.  He has no choice but to leave.  If he gets the lead, the jocks will prbly think he\'ll fade and not challenge him at all.  He may never look back, and you know the odds will be huge.

[sekrah]

My problem with Wow Wow Wow is the one time they put a hold on him and tried to get him to rate (Optional Claimer 50k, Jan 3rd at FG). He fought Jacinto like hell the whole time and had nothing left.  DWL needs to stop being a tool and run this horse at 6f-7f where he belongs.   DWL 4% in 175 graded stakes.