Endorsement bouncing?

[Dana666]

Anyone have any idea what Endorsement may have run in the Sunland Derby? I\'m guessing around a 0 to 1 (just a guess) which would be a huge jump forward for that horse, so the big question is with more than a month of rest till the Derby, might he pair up and would that make him a factor on May 1st? Looking at the Red Board room sheets, you can see where he gets that stamina from - wow,charmed gift is scary stamina! I think this guy may be very live.

[covelj70]

Dana,

It\'s a good question and one that I think applies to other horses like Ice Box, Pleasant Price, Mission Impazzible and Endorsement.

Assuming your thoughts on Endorsement are right and the same is true for MI (not a prediction, I have no idea what they ran), all 4 of these would have the same issue.

They ran a last number that is fast enough to be at least considered on top in the Derby but its a big new top for all of them.

Now, they will all have 5 or 6 weeks rest to recover from the big jump but even with the rest, it\'s not likely that any of them will move forward again enough to get into that 1 negative/2 negative range that you really need to win the derby.

I think I will have to play against all of them unless something changes between now and then but I won\'t do that with alot of confidence.

[jack72906]

Cove,

I would normally agree with your point about the 1-2neg range, but it seems that this crop of 3yo are a bit slower than others in recent years. A 0-1 might be good enough this year. No?

[Dana666]

That\'s a lot of rest though, don\'t you think? Better than if they ran this coming weekend in the April 3rd preps - that extra week can make a difference. The spacing seems good to me.

[ajkreider]

We\'ll likely be able to figure out some of the bounce factor by looking at the way the horse gets around the track the week of.  Recently, the best looking horses in the runup seem to have done very well in the derby.  

If he\'s sluggish then, he\'s a toss.

[nyc1347]

There will be many horses that will have better patterns than this going into the derby.. Big jump and this horse in my opinion is most likely to bounce then anything else.  even a pair up doesnt seem like it will win this  year so to me its a no brainer.  Toss completely unless your playing underneath to get a very small piece at a big price. (like a 4th place in  the super at whats projected to be a 35-1 or higher horse that day.)

[nyc1347]

From what I have noticed...


horses that jump up big usually bounce or at the worst still regress derby day.

a horse paired who has paired the last racing effort going into the derby and won was running huge figures all year compared to the others.

I cant think of any horse that ran a new top prior, had about 6 weeks off, and won unless u count Barbaro who was forging perfectly in small steps and didnt burn himself..i believe he had 5 weeks off.  

I cant remember a horse who also won going backwards off an effort unless it was a horse already running big.. maybe smarty jones?

Most horses who have won hit a new top going forward randomly that day or were horses that were already faster by far heading into the derby.

Horses like Ice Box, Endorsement, etc are horses who jumped huge just one race prior to the derby and even with rest according to what i see arent likely to win the as they should regress or bounce that day.  I dont think any horse has even paired an effort in the derby jumping big last out even with rest going into the derby.   So on all of these one hit wonders that enter the derby il pass.

[magicnight]

Charismatic jumped 4 and 1/2 points and paired winning the Derby two weeks later.

[TGJB]

I think Lil E Tee did something like that too. All the Derby stuff is in the Archives section on this site.

[miff]

Most of the derby winners over the last 25+ years were moving forward and many ran a top but not a huge one(the slug Giacomo moved far forward in the derby off a set up)

[nyc1347]

i started the horses in 2000 so anything beyond that i have no idea.. im only going by memory but i do know from looking at the archives back in the day that there werent any horses running the kind of fast numbers of today (neg #\'s etc.) that would make a horse bounce off the walls like a sinister minister, etc type horse.  Good horses back then were able to run with less rest and still be in line with pattern and other horses abilities overall.  

I just looked at charismatic and he raced so much as a 3 year old but seemed to get a trainer change to lukas prior to the derby?  this change (trainer im assuming) seemed to be the key factor to him running at the new level consistently as he did prior with his slower races and other trainer.

[magicnight]

That\'s right. Don\'t let having \"no idea\" stop you.

[nyc1347]

Theres a dot symbol prior to his derby race on the thorograph that states something had changed the race before the derby that seems to have made him jump up to a new level.. the dot is a trainer change or maybe medication?  but whatever it was he ran consistently at that point once again but it was at a new level.. a horse racing consistent at a new level 3 is much different than horse racing consistent at a negative level (like horses these days do).. they simply need more rest these days and dont run as much like they did in the past.

[jack72906]

jack72906 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great post Jellish.
>
> Since this pattern \"discussion\" has become so
> spirited and even insightful in some areas I
> decided to take a trip to the archives and look at
> the pattern of the Derby winners the last 10
> years. The number to the left of the horse\'s name
> is their 2yo top and the number on the far right
> is the figure from the Derby.
>
> Here they are...
>
> 8-Mine That Bird  8-5-0(neg)
>
> 8-Big Brown 1-3(neg)-4(neg)
>
> 2-Street Sense 1-2-2(neg)
>
> 4-Barbaro 6-3-1-2(neg)
>
> 4-Giacomo 5-4-5-0
>
> 0-Smarty Jones 0-0-3(neg)-1(neg)-1(neg)
>
> 3-Funny Cide 3-3-1-1
>
> 8-War Emblem 8-10-1-1-0(neg)
>
> 15-Monarchos 7-3-0-3-0(neg)
>
> 6-Fu Peg 6-4-4-2-2

[mjellish]

I don\'t have the sheet in front of me but I remember the horse.  There was no trainer change.   Lukas figured out that the horse was lazy and thrived on running often.  After that the horse woke up.  He ran big in the Lexington and then repeated that in Derby and Preakness.  I keyed Menifee that year and wound up losing on every ticket when Charismatic won.  I didn\'t have him in any position on any ticket except for when I hit the ALL button at the bottom of a few tri\'s.  Sort of like Mine That Bird last year.