Santa Anita Derby 2010

[JimP]

I can understand why the trainer would be grousing about the jock\'s ride. That\'s what trainers do. What I don\'t understand is why some on this board are agreeing with Baffert about the ride. Isn\'t saving ground a major component of sheet handicapping theory? All I saw GG do was try to ride the horse to a ground saving trip. He got cut off by another horse and there was a penalty assessed for that. That infraction may or may not have cost LAL the race. That can be debated. But why is the GG ride being criticized? I don\'t get it.

[alm]

According to one report Gomez said Espinoza yelled \'I told you I was gonna get you\' when he nailed him...which prompted Gomez going after him after the race.

I don\'t know if it\'s true...all I know is that the horse was compromised pretty severely by the incident.  

Like a lot of pre-Derby prep outcomes, this one gives us a betting opportunity.  Think Unbridled in the Fla Derby. I wouldn\'t have gotten 11-1 in the KY Derby if Unbridled had been cranked down in Florida...that\'s for sure.

Or to look at it another way: would you rather have Secretariat coming out of a lame Wood Memorial or Eskenderya coming out of a dominating performance in the Wood?  Think Bellamy Road for the answer to that one.

[number5858]

ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...The horse that ran second in the SA derby looks
> interesting to pick up the pieces at the bottom of
> the super in the Derby.

I agree, looked like he could run all day. You have to think that Setsuko might benefit from the extra distance in the Derby. Did you see how nice this horse looked in the PP? Had that beautiful arched neck, and his coat was top notch from what I could see on TV.

[ajkreider]

I never know how to figure how the way a horse looks in the paddock translates into track performance.  It\'s probably talked me out of more winning bets than it has gotten me winners.

Maybe I just don\'t know what to look for.

[miff]

Hi Al,

Escy will go into the derby;

neg-1-2

    0

    3 1/2

I think that is very different from say Bellamy Road or others which moved up to 5+ point tops in their derby prep, off poor foundations.You know that horses do not come with off/on switches or instruments to control how fast they run in \"pre derby\" preps.I don\'t believe for one second that LAL was not fully cranked anymore than I believe that ESCY was not fully cranked.I\'m certain that Baffy/TAP  did not want their horses to peak before the derby but there is really very little magic they have to accomplish that.

Anyway,I think the LAL fans received a bonus with LAL\'s derby price, while it will hurt those of us who were tossing LAL in the derby.For the record,even with a clean trip on Sat, he had no shot on running down the winner.

LAL fans, are you concerned that LAL was outrun from the 1/8 pole to the wire by a slug,Setsuko, after doing NO RUNNING during the entire race, incident or not?

Good Luck
Mike

[alm]

Mike

I don\'t view it that way...meaning you thought that a trainer has very little impact on a horse\'s readiness.  If I did, I would never hit winners from guys like Nafzger, who rarely wins off a layoff...he usually preps one or two races before laying them down.

We\'ve got a little mare who is coming off a long layoff, she has worked every week and we plan on at least one \'non effort\' race before putting pressure on her.  In fact her prep race will be a sprint...really a long workout...whatever that race looks like on paper won\'t be an indication of her ability nor our intentions.

Mind you, I am not saying LAL will win the Derby, but I do not think that Baffert had this horse at a peak for the SA.  In any case, he has brought horses to peak efforts for the big dance far better than Pletcher ever has ... and he always will.  Check out whether he precedes the KY with a series of 5-furlong works (two fast then one slow.)  Let\'s see if he does that again...if so, that indicates to me that the horse\'s best shot is ahead.

Re: your point about Bellamy Road, I know that you are right.  BR was no ESK.  Still, my point is valid...ESK has beaten the same horses in FLA and NYC by about the same distance in about the same time.  Pletcher has had him at his peak for a month...needs to keep him there for another month.  He\'ll screw it up.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

What is LAL\'s peak?  The race at Oaklawn with \"all that trouble\"?  The race before at Santa Anita, where his entrymate set the pace, allowed him to come inside and pushed Noble\'s Promise 3-wide?

This horse has been over-rated for awhile now.  He ran the excellent race in the BC Classic on a big-time \"closer\'s track\".  I guess he has a shot to be an \"Impeachment\"-type, where he could close for 3rd or something.  But he doesn\'t have the tactical ability or the acceleration of a closer.  Baffert going \"over the top\" about the \"terrible ride\" by Gomez was ridiculous.  Since when is it \"you can\'t be inside on that track\"?  Isn\'t that how the horse beat Noble\'s Promise two back?  By riding the inside and saving ground?  

Agree with Miff that it is too bad this horse got exposed to a degree this weekend.  I was hoping he was going to be the Derby favorite.  Just hoping that enough people believe that he could have won if not for Gomez\'s terrible ride on Saturday........

[Uncle Buck]

Miff, when you say \"TOSS\" LAL, what do you mean exactly from a constructing a ticket perspective?

[Dana666]

I agree (sadly) he got exposed. But, the track on BC day was not a closers track - it was all inside and close up for two days, go back and read the charts and see where the winners were for goodness sake, that race along with the Oaklawn race were his two super efforts, and Jerry got the Oaklawn number correct whereas Rags didn\'t, and he probably bounced in the SA derby, too, but I missed a few key signs, like why didn\'t he race until February? And now only has 2 preps going into the Derby - and that\'s not enough in my opinion. I did say much earlier that he had matured early, and the rest of his class might catch up, and then his advantage would be gone, and I think that has happened. When I said he\'d be 10-1 on Derby day, I meant that would be a fair price, he\'ll likely be much lower. But if you ran well against that bias on BC day you really ran well. I\'m not saying anything about any other day, but get the facts straight there please. As far as Baffert criticizing Go-go\'s ride - it just explains the folly of synthetic tracks -if now, saving ground in a route race is bad, then the whole handicapping of synthetic tracks is upside down. What DVD he was referring to I don\'t know. Lucky would really have to explode on Derby Day and run a new top to be near Esky, and I don;t know where that number is going to come from. I\'ll be watching the workouts closely for more clues. If the Derby were this past weekend, we\'d be taking odds on Esky\'s triple crown price, not his price in the Derby. Can you imagine how pissed a lot of people would be in Pletcher trains the next triple crown winner??? Will be very interesting four weeks coming up.

[jimbo66]

Dana,

I will tell you what, why don\'t you go back and the read the charts. Here is a link:

http://www.breederscup360.com/archives/2009/2009-breeders-cup-results-and-replays/

There were 7 \"dirt\" races over the two days.  Guess how many wire jobs?  Zippo.  

Yes, the two days BEFORE the Breeders CUp speed played well, but not for the Breeders Cup.  LAL was \"with the track\" his race, not against it.

Yes, agreed that LAL\'s BC and Oaklawn races were his best, but he didn\'t get into that much trouble in the Oaklawn race.  I like his trip better than Noble\'s Promise any day.  He lost a length or so, when slightly checked.  NP got rushed to a premature move because of the idiotic ride by Nakatani on Dublin, had to put the speed horse away early, then had to put Dublin away, who is a damn good horse, then had to hold off LAL who sat off the warring horses.  

As for TGJB getting the Oaklawn race right, I would agree.  But I would bet a lot of money that TGJB likely missed Sydney\'s Candy\'s last race (which American Lion also came out of).  He had the horse going back 2 points in that race and almost a non-contender on Saturday (not even factoring in that the horse was moving backwards and sitting on 0-2-x).  Now, I guess that SC will look like he is sitting on a 5 point forward move or something like that.  Looks like TG has SC\'s last race ~3 point slower than Beyer and Rags.

[Dana666]

I didn\'t say wire-to-wire, I said close up, say within a length or two turning for home and most importantly INSIDE! If you were outside, you were dead meat, ESPECIALLY on Saturday. Only the Mare Classic (with an insane face pace early) on Friday and Zenyatta on Saturday were horses who came for far back. I don\'t have the time or energy to go back and validate what I already know. I only mentioned that b/c I have heard people mention that, maybe it was the same guy before???

Just from memory on Saturday, all these races were won by inside horses who were close up turning for home: Dirt Mile, Juvenile, and Sprint - all inside run-ups!
There was an earlier stakes race (first race I think?) that was also won by an inside run-up. Please I can\'t waste time restating the obvious. That\'s why I followed Lucky so closely b/c I thought his BC race was one for the ages, and it really showed me his class.

[Dana666]

I checked the charts quickly, and in none of those races I just mentioned was the winner ever more than 2 lengths back at the 3/4 pole; and only Dancing in Silks was off the rail for a 1/4 mile, all others were on the rail most all of the race. What charts are you looking at???

[miff]

Dana,

Being close up at 3/4 pole is NOT how a track bias is looked at. Not sure I know what you mean but the friday and sat for BC 2009 favored off the pace horses,most of the ones that \"cut it\" were nowhere at the end.Inside or not is not in debate.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Dana,

There were only 7 dirt races.

Zenyatta came from dead last. (there was no insane pace in this race, it was par)
Life is Sweet came from dead last.  (yes, pace was very fast).

They both looped the field.

Man of Iron came from dead last.

Vale of York was mid-pack, on the inside, saving ground.  No bias, just saved ground.

Furthest Land tripped out, from a pocket trip, sitting 4th.

Informed Decision was outside, stalking, the entire way.

She Be Wild was in the 2 path most of the race, then down to the inside on the 2nd turn.

Measuring how \"close up\" runners performed by where they were after 3/4 of a mile is something you may want to do, but that is certainly not standard.  Pace is measured after the quarter and half.  

3 of the 7 races, or 42%, were won by horses in dead last the early part of the race.  

That is not an inside speed track.

[miff]

Buck,

The best tosses(out of the money) you will find in racing are horses that will take lots of money in the exotic pool. Choices are always overweight in the exotic pools, especially very short priced horses.

LAL lost lustre on sat imo,and I am certain he will not take nearly as much money as I thought before saturdays exposure, to quote Jimbo.LAL is a gutsy blue collar type imo but I find difficulty in imagining that he has the raw talent to overcome a less than good trip on May 1.Really, who has LAL ever run away from? His all out margins of victory have been life and death close finishes except for one race.Escy, you point out beat nothing, but BUCK, he\'s trouncing these nothings, no?If the same horse or close to the same horse shows up on May Ist, it\'s just a matter of how far he will win by. I\'ll admit that is a big IF and Escy has to answer the question of resiliency and attendance to faster early splits.

I don\'t get caught up in Baffy or this trainer or that one. Been around horses too long to not know that there is no difference in the top 20+ guys, it\'s all about the horses talent, period.Give me the most talented horse everytime with an average trainer and others can have the best trainer with a less talented horse.

Mike