In Retrospect for Derby Fever/popular news

[SonicDonn]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> I love the other threads started this weekend
> asking for the exacta horses under Esky some 29
> days days before \"Old Kentucky Home\" rings the
> air. Gotta love horseplayers!




You would have REALLY loved the following from my March 20 post:




Re: Ok lets run down the Florida Derby! (210 Views)
Posted by: SonicDonn (IP Logged)
Date: March 20, 2010 09:45AM


As far as the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown.

Eskendereya will win the Derby unless something bad (injury, illness) happens to him and has a very good chance to win the Triple Crown.

What odds can I get right now on Eskendereya to win the Triple Crown?

[alm]

Mike

It sounds like you are describing Mine That Bird.  

I\'m pretty sure ESK would have beaten him too, except that nobody did.

I know that you know that the Derby is a complex race/situation and that it is far too early to know where we will stand after they draw pp\'s, until we see track conditions, watch them train, etc.

In other words, it\'s a bit too early to make the pick...unless ESK is a superhorse....but of course this board appoints a new super horse about once a month.

Last month it was Quality Road...the month before it was Zenyatta (after 2 years of trashing her)...before that Rachel...before that ?? I can\'t remember anymore.

[miff]

Al,

Do not think Escy is a super horse but the best 3yr old right now, by quite a bit, tomorrow he may not be. You that story well, I\'m sure.Even the neg -1-2 that he will likely get does not do justice to his edge over this group, right now.


Mike

[nyc1347]

Man il tell you what.. whatever pletcher has been given to quality road hes def giving the same to Eske.. this could be a negative 3 at the wood this past weekend.  No idea how he will do next out with just 4 weeks off but he looks like tons AND i reeeeeally think big money will be on this horse and he will be something like 6/5!  Why else wouldnt a horse winning by those margins the last few races not go off such a huge fave?

[analizethis]

Big Brown off a -3 1/2 was 2.4 - 1 out of post 20.Swetnorthernsaint off a -1.5 was a 5.5 - 1 fav. Belamy Road off a -5 was 2.6 - 1. Smarty Jones had run a -3.75 and was a 4.1 fav.

With 20 horse fields and large pools it isn\'t reasonable to expect that short a price.

Bob

[sekrah]

Your Kentucky Derby winner:

Endorsement

Enjoying every single stretch in distance including in the Sunland Derby where he stalked and buried Conveyance while going away.  Missed the track record by 1/5th of a second and he was going extremely strong past the wire.  111.4 1/2 mile, final furlong ran in 12.4.   Can\'t find another horse in this field who ran 1 1/8 race in sub 1:12 half and came home in under 13.

 Lightly raced and developing nicely.  I\'m very high on his chances to go forward at 1 1/14 on May 1st.  Distorted Humor/Ap Indy bred.   Seems to rate gorgeously.


Other bombers who I consider, but both need earnings to get in:

Pleasant Prince - Lots of dam side endurance.  Was impressed with his Fla Derby race.  Lots of tactical speed here.  Has some top-end speed.  Has some cruise speed.  Very versatile.

Super Saver - My favorite Pletcher horse.  The one with the brightest future at classic distances IMO.   I predict a monster performance in the Arkansas Derby, which may hurt his Derby chances though.

[smalltimer]

111.4 for 1/2 mile?
Final furlong in 12.4?  
Sub 1:12 half?
Better check your math ....

[big18741]

Endorsement ran a nice race.If the charts are correct:

     24.11/24.23/23.67/23.87  final 1/8th 12.58

Eskendereya:

Wood 24.72/24.79/24.13/24.09  final 1/8th  12.24
FOY  24.12/24.00/24.29/24.13  final 1/8th  12.33

Problem for both these colts in a 20 horse field is getting completely different trips than they\'ve seen in their preps.Are they versatile enough to adapt to traffic-shuffling or extreme wide? Neither figures anywhere close to stalking in 2nd or 3rd out in the clear unless a lot of the quicker early horses don\'t make the race.

Gotta see the actual field but there should be solid pace not these 48 and 49 half\'s.If they go 23 and change 46 and change it brings horses like Ice Box into the mix who should be 1w into the first turn.He got his final 3/8ths in 36.89 at GP and a final 1/8th 12.60(?) not changing leads.Slower going in off a jumpup race but he has six weeks and he\'s never gone back.He could move up again and his post isn\'t gonna matter.

[sekrah]

Oops Sub 1:12 3/4.. You know what I mean

[sekrah]

What impressed me most is that Endorsement was a fly-in to Sunland.. He wasn\'t there very long, he had no workouts in that altitude.   This horse has a nice set of lungs to handle the chore the way he did that day.

Sunland regulars that do well will tell you they throw out any shipper running first-time there.

[ajkreider]

The FOY chart has Esky in front at 6F in 1:12.41

[big18741]

That\'s correct -his first three quarters:

24.12
24.00
24.29

[Leamas57]

Sekrah, I endorse your endorsement of Endorsement--not necessarily as calling him the winner, but one of few that I will use to upset these usual suspects like Esky, SC, etc. I have had that sense since the day I saw him win. I rememember hitting the Preakness with Bernardino as a lightly-raced colt who made one more move on the big day.

He won\'t have the experience of some of these, but he seems to have all the tools and might make one more move forward.

Leamas.