Couple of Quick Thoughts about KD

[mjellish]

There\'s been a lot of speculation about what ESK Wood number is.  For what it is worth, according to my numbers, it looks like he has only a very slight move forward.  More or less a pair.  I don\'t know where the -2, -3 speculations come from.  We\'ll see what Jerry comes out with.

To my eye, that puts ESK on a very good looking pattern overall.  I can already hear the talk about development compared to his two year old top.  But keep in mind, this horse only ran once on dirt as a two year old.  He got a fever late in the year after the BC and missed a planned start.  He wound up running back first week of January instead for his second race on dirt and wound up with a nice new top.  Had he run that same race 1 week earlier, that would be his two year old top and it would be a fast one, not the number from the Pilgrim Stakes which isn\'t bad all by itself.  So I would keep that in mind while evaluating his overall pattern and room for development.

That being said, the thing that concerns me the most about this colt is that he has not shown me any athleticism whatsoever.  No overpowering front running scores.  No middle moves.  No overcoming trouble.  He just wins by sheer stamina, and that may be enough this year.  But in a 20 horse field with a likely 46 or so half mile, even the energizer bunny could find himself in a completely different situation if he gets stopped cold in a 20 horse field of Radio Shack runners.  So ESK is no lock by any means.  Point Given looked to me to be about as sure of thing as you would ever see, and he got beat by the pace and trip.  So did Afleet Alex.  Along with a foot and training issue, so did Empire Maker.  Being best isn\'t always enough.

Add to that, no matter what these horses have done so far, I still think how they work leading up to the derby is a key element to winning this race.  A horse has to be perfectly fit and ready to deliver the performance of their young life to win the KD Derby, and they also usually need to get some type of ok trip or be very superior to overcome a bad one.  The works leading up this race are therefore key, and we need to watch them closely.  As usual, I will share my clocker\'s info with this board and appreciate any returns anyone else can provide in kind.

ESK is an obvious horse, and if he trains well he may be my win key horse.  But as of right now, as an exercise, I am also handicapping this race with the idea that ESK won\'t run his best.  I am just leaving him out of it and asking myself who else is likely to win.  I am also looking for potential key horses that are likely to go off undervalued whether I concede the race to ESK or not, such as Endorsement who ran a pretty damn good race at Sunland with a fast closing time, and Pleasant Prince who ran better than Ice Box in the FL Derby and may go off at twice price if he gets enough earnings to get into the race.  Also, to my eyes, LAL is not a one-paced wonder.  He showed great athleticism in the Rebel to avoid clipping heals, regain momentum quickly and close well enough to win.  He nearly went down in the SA Derby and still re-rallied to hit the board.  So I am not as ready to write him off as some of the other posters on this board.

I am also looking forward with great interest to see how Dublin, Noble\'s Promise and Super Saver run.  Watching the Blue Grass to see who get\'s in and who doesn\'t, but I won\'t put much credence in the results regardless.

Just some food for thought.

[streetbull]

In Esk\'s last two races, he was absolutely cantering in the first two fractions of the nine furlongs race, the same goes for Sidney\'s Candy\'s last two prep races before the Derby. Thus, these two leading contenders will be vulnerable in the Derby if they are ask to run faster fractions in the early pace of the Derby.  The final times of the Florida Derby, Wood, and Santa Derby are deceiving since no real running were executed in the early pace fractions.  I seriously doubt the Derby field will let a horse like War Emblem get away with slow early fractions even though War Emblem had the best sustained fractions going into his year\'s Derby exiting the Illinois Derby at Sportsman Park.  I will wait until the final preps are in before  any real evaluations are done to determine the most probable winner of this year\'s Kentucky Derby.

[ajkreider]

Point Given also got beat by a great race from Monarchos.  The track was pavement that day, to be sure, but Point Given would have had to run a Derby record for the win.  

Esk looked nimble enough through the first turn in the Wood. Got a bit between horses and was moved outside.  Nothing earth-shattering but certainly good enough.

Esk hasn\'t been pressed early, though his results can\'t be put down to that.  The Excelsior group had the same half and 6F, but came home 1.5 seconds slower despite the weight advantage.  Esk can let a horse get away a bit and still run him down.  Haven\'t seen pace figs for it yet, though.

Don\'t like making a bet based on the best horse getting stopped.  If I\'m gonna roll the dice, it\'ll probably be underneath.

[jbelfior]

Esk will be 10 lengths out of it down the backstretch. With no middle spurt to speak of, his one paced stamina may get him on the board as he passes colts who cannot get the trip. That\'s about it.

LAL is a more nimble, athletic animal. He beat him at Santa Anita in November and will beat him at Churchill in May. But the winner may be lurking elsewhere.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TreadHead]

I still remember how ridiculous the track was that day.  One of my favorite horses ever, Rollin with Nolan, suffered a career ending injury over it.  And some Baffert maiden set a track record for 6.5f.  But yeah, they dont soup up the track for big stakes days or anything!

[streetbull]

In 2001, Baffert was the trainer of Point Given and Congaree......IMHO,Congaree was his primary horse for the Derby even though Point Given won the Preakness and the Belmont.. ...But Point Given ran too close to one of the fastest early pace in recent Derby histories, set by Unbridled Song....

Hind sights are 20/20,but with a more realistic pace, Congaree should have worn the roses that day....even Baffert commented that he had some futures bet on Congaree....With some so much posts and interests building towards the first Saturday in May, determining the winner of the Derby is no mystery as Doc Sartin,the creator of the Sartin Methodology, has stated many times that the winner of Derby are won by the top two sustained runners from the Derby prep races....Good Luck to all who are interested in this famous race for 3 year old thoroughbreds.....

[mjellish]

Unbridled Song didn\'t run in 2001, and trust me, Point Given was Baffert\'s main runner that year.  Baffert thought PG had a chance to win the Triple Crown, and so did I.  I thought if he survived the KD he had an excellent chance to win them all.  He had one of the strongest two year old tops and foundations with steady improvement at 3, was bred to get the classic distances and looked absolutely ready to explode that year.

I would have to go back and check, but I think it was Songandprayer who set those blistering fractions.  As I recall, I keyed Point Given on top with Express Tour in second and third that year over/under AP Valentine, Invisible Ink and Congaree to fill out some big tri\'s and got smoked on every ticket when Monarchos blew by them all.  And here I had bet Monarchos in all three of his Florida races preceding the Derby.  In fact, I remember betting Monarchos at 5/2 with about a minute left to post in the FL Derby that year and in the last flash he dropped to 8/5.  Someone must have bet a ton of money on him right before post.  Then after regressing in the Wood he didn\'t work much leading up to the big race and looked like a toss to me.  

Nuther lesson learned.  But you are right, the track was very hard that day.

[jbelfior]

I believe Songandaprayer set the fastest half mile in Derby history that day. How else could Monarchos beat Congaree?

One final note: The Sunland Derby winner has me scratching my head. Not sure what they feed some of their stock down there, but I would say that the menu will be quite different in Kentucky on May 1. Guess it was good \'ol fashion home cooking......TOSS!!!!!!!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

I\'m sure others are better at this than I am, but I\'ll take a shot at explaining where the negative 2 to 3 comes from:

The Wood went in 1.46 seconds faster than the Excelsior that preceded it.  The Excelsior looks like it would take about a 3 to win.  At 0.16 seconds per length (which is the conversion TGJB has previously posted), the Wood was 9 lengths faster.  At roughly half a point per length, that converts to 4.5 points, which brings the Eskendreya\'s fig down to -1.5.  The Wood horses were carrying 123, versus 117 for the Excelsior winner.  That\'s a little more than a point, and we\'re down to -2.5.  Eskendreya was 3-wide around the second turn (v. 2-wide for the Excelsior winner), so there may be another half point there. Ergo, negative 3.

Negative 3 would also fit well with the Beyer fig of 109.  TGJB has previously posted that a Beyer of 100 converts to a TG of 1 at 118 pounds.  At 3 Beyer points per TG point, 109 would equate to negative 2.  Subtract another point for carrying 123 v. 118, and we\'re down to negative 3 again.

[miff]

Mjellish,

The neg -2 area is not just speculation.I think the TG fig will be near there for many reasons. Unless JB has a very different take on that race from Beyer/Rags and anyone making speed figs, the number will be in the range suggested. The race itself and the prior race make it fairly straight forward, Bit has generally covered the logic.

Could not disagree more with your obsevation re Ecsy\'s athleticism.He is always away in good order and his last race featured more than one athletic move very early on. From the smooth early tuck to the smooth move into the 2-3 path out of the first turn.Escy not especially gate quick but has shown much better tactical speed from his 2 yr old lines, another strong indicator of development in a racehorse.

I think he can overcome a tough trip in the derby but not a very tough one, even though he will lay over most of these going in. No other 3yr old has shown that they are talented enough to win this derby off a very tough trip, so far.


Mike

[mjellish]

Agreed Miff.  

Esk looks to be far and away the best.  I still feel he hasn\'t shown much althleticism, or nimblness may be a better way to put it, which can be key in working your way through a 20 horse field.  But I am not going to tell you I am right and you are wrong.  We just see it differently.

I also get the logic behind Bit\'s post.  When you don\'t have alot of races run at any one distance on a given day, sometimes the only way to come up with the varient is to use some projections based on the horses prior abilities.  In fact that often turns out to be the case.  And if you do the Wood that way then you probably will wind up down in that negative range.  It certainly looked impressive visually.  But I don\'t have the race that way.  My fig puts him in the -1 range, which is only a slight new top, and even if Jerry has it a -3 that\'s still not anything like a 6-7 point new top.   But here again, to each their own.  

Either way, I think Jerry may have to wrestle with that figure a bit.  It\'s obviously an important figure.  But no matter what the fig comes back at, the horse wasn\'t exactly hard used in the race.  He didn\'t looked stressed at all, and it\'s not like he was involved in a photo finish, though I doubt he could have come home much faster than he did had the whip been out.  So make of that what you will as well.

No matter what, even without seeing the post position draw, I think ESK will wind up with a wide trip because he doesn\'t look like the type that can weave his way in and out of traffic.  Johhny V will get him out of the gate and try to establish a good stalking position out in the clear, which will cost him some lengths.  But it  looks like he has a few lengths to spare anyway.

[miff]

Mjellish,


Most sheet readers look at the whole number,in this case a negative fig. I tend to factor in that Escy \'ran\' about 5/16 ths of a mile in the race. He did not lay his body down in the Wood or the Fla Derby,imo.


Mike

[Silver Charm]

Jellish makes some good points but what the figure is IS of major importance.

If it is a Neg 3 then the inital read I guess would be a bounce.

If its another zero\"ish type then it is a pair, a good looking line but a horse that might be 2-1 and not be much faster than the rest.

In both cases one could argue he is a play against because of his odds.

If it is a zero\'ish then it could be argued he is a Barbaro type line. But Barbaro was like 4-1 not 2-1

Glad its not my job to do this......

[alm]

Mike

I want to make a point, but it\'s not a \'hot\' point...just an observation.

How many of Pletcher\'s horses have I seen run in person?  How many have I looked at closely in the paddock?  I don\'t know, maybe hundreds.

Apart from young horses in their first races, I can\'t ever remember seeing one of his show up with anything less than a top level of fitness.  The guy seems to want to win every time.  I could use words like \'cranked,\' but that might overstate what I am saying.  They look READY...almost every time.

I don\'t think that he knows how to train a horse any other way.  I find it hard to accept that Eskenderya did not run \'all out\' and to the very best of his ability in both Florida and New York.  He might improve, for sure, but what he showed you is what he had.  

I think the reason that Pletcher\'s horses have generally (not always) run flat in the KY Derby is because they were stressed to perform at peak ability in their pre-Derby preps.  The only thing he has done a little differently with this horse was holding him out of the Fla Derby to run in the Wood.  That gave the horse a little more time to recover and a smarter break before Kentucky.  It will take less training to have him ready for KY.  He gets more rest and there\'s less chance of a bounce.

But having said that, I don\'t think the horse will have anything more other than modest improvement...which may be all that it takes.

Al

[miff]

Al,

Totally understood but I will never buy that a trainer can \"stop\" a horse from running it\'s best by racing short, and we know that many try that in preps.There have been more horses destroyed, running huge off layoffs and being short than the other way around. A huge performance off short is a disaster, not so much when one is kinda tight. In one case the horse is ruined, in the other,the horse may temporarily regress, bounce!

The appearance of TAP\'s horses in the walking ring is well known, they mostly look like King Kong and they should for what they cost. Not many horses find their way to that barn that are not substantially correct at purchase time.Until they were banned, I believe TAP\'s horses may have been on a steroid regimen as were MANY from other outfits.

From an intellectual understanding of racing, there aren\'t too many trainers who are more knowledgeable than TAP.Whether or not his horses run well on big days is purely a function of the animal in question and no two are the same.His record going into the derby, 0-24? is totally meaningless as it relates to Escy imo, different horse, different day.

Escy has improved just about every day from when he first showed up at the TAP barn until his last race. I agree that he is very close to his best for this cycle and it is not without possibility that he is at or over even over the top.If he trains well up to the derby, someone will have to jump up to outrun him. From what we have seen so far, there may be a few that can,I do not believe Escy will jump up in the derby.

Mike