Couple of Quick Thoughts about KD

[sekrah]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Esk will be 10 lengths out of it down the
> backstretch. With no middle spurt to speak of, his
> one paced stamina may get him on the board as he
> passes colts who cannot get the trip. That\'s about
> it.
>
> LAL is a more nimble, athletic animal. He beat him
> at Santa Anita in November and will beat him at
> Churchill in May. But the winner may be lurking
> elsewhere.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


Agree with everything in this post..  Esky\'s running style doesn\'t bode well for a 20-horse field where lots of banging and maneuvering will be necessary to avoid troubled trips.  Remember the biggest field he faced?  The 13-horse BC Juvenile.. Got into a jam on the 1st turn, Castellano took him up, and he never really recovered as he got stuck back 7-8 lengths of a very slow pace..   Got gravy scenarios in his next three races, the January Allowance Race, Fountain of Youth and Wood.   If he\'s tracking the leaders of the Derby by 1/2-1 length (lots of E8 types), he\'s toast.   He\'s a one-run horse, which could be said the same for MTB, but MTB has show far more maneuvering ability in traffic.  Throw in the 2-1 price and Esky is a terrible Derby play IMO.

[Lost Cause]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Agree with everything in this post..  Esky\'s
> running style doesn\'t bode well for a 20-horse
> field where lots of banging and maneuvering will
> be necessary to avoid troubled trips.  Remember
> the biggest field he faced?  The 13-horse BC
> Juvenile.. Got into a jam on the 1st turn,
> Castellano took him up, and he never really
> recovered as he got stuck back 7-8 lengths of a
> very slow pace..   Got gravy scenarios in his next
> three races, the January Allowance Race, Fountain
> of Youth and Wood.   If he\'s tracking the leaders
> of the Derby by 1/2-1 length (lots of E8 types),
> he\'s toast.   He\'s a one-run horse, which could be
> said the same for MTB, but MTB has show far more
> maneuvering ability in traffic.  Throw in the 2-1
> price and Esky is a terrible Derby play IMO.


In my theory he gets a good trip tucking behind the horses dueling up front making the first move around the turn and galloping them into the ground..I\'m not a fave player but something has to really go wrong with the PP draw for me to not play this one at this point..

[sekrah]

No offense, but I don\'t understand how every year there\'s people that come on saying \"I\'m not a fav player\" but they want to load up on the chalk in the hardest, most crapshoot race of the year.   Something doesn\'t jive there.

[SonicDonn]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 LAL is a more nimble, athletic animal. He beat him
 at Santa Anita in November and will beat him at
 Churchill in May.  
 
 Good Luck,
 Joe B.
---------------------------------------------------------






Wanna bet?

[SonicDonn]

Of course, any horse can be beaten by a bad trip.

With good health and a reasonably fair trip, \"Big E\" wins the Derby.

In your heart, all of you know this is true.

[P-Dub]

SonicDonn Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of course, any horse can be beaten by a bad trip.
>
> With good health and a reasonably fair trip, \"Big
> E\" wins the Derby.
>
> In your heart, all of you know this is true.


This line has been repeated before several derbies.

It ends with tickets being ripped up.

Followed by excuses at to why said horse lost. Usually, he didn\'t get \"a reasonably fair trip\" is the first one.

By all means, take all of the 2-1 you can handle. Its one thing to come here and talk up a horse, its another to put your money on him.

If you want to brag to friends that you picked the Derby winner, then thats fine.  But don\'t tell me that playing a 2-1 shot in a 20 horse field is a good idea. And though you didn\'t say it, you said it.

[SonicDonn]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SonicDonn Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Of course, any horse can be beaten by a bad
> trip.
> >
> > With good health and a reasonably fair trip,
> \"Big
> > E\" wins the Derby.
> >
> > In your heart, all of you know this is true.
>
>
> This line has been repeated before several
> derbies.
>
> It ends with tickets being ripped up.
>
> Followed by excuses at to why said horse lost.
> Usually, he didn\'t get \"a reasonably fair trip\" is
> the first one.
>
> By all means, take all of the 2-1 you can handle.
> Its one thing to come here and talk up a horse,
> its another to put your money on him.
>
> If you want to brag to friends that you picked the
> Derby winner, then thats fine.  But don\'t tell me
> that playing a 2-1 shot in a 20 horse field is a
> good idea. And though you didn\'t say it, you said
> it.


I didn\'t say \"Big E\" needs a good trip to win, just a reasonably fair trip where he is not eliminated by something unusual happening.

I am not just talking-up \"Big E\", I will be betting on him.

I don\'t need to brag to anyone about picking the Derby winner, I have picked many Derby winners over the years, most at BIG odds. I have also played against EVERY horse that had a chance to sweep the Triple Crown since 1980, usually with great success.

It is fun and exciting to come up with the wise-guy horse that pays big in the Derby, I am sure I will be trying to do so NEXT year, not this year. BTW, I will be going for a big score this year since I believe the horses that will probably be 2nd through 5th choice in the Derby have little chance of being in the exacta.

[ajkreider]

Liking Esk for the win doesn\'t mean \"loading up on the chalk\".  Derby money is made with the super anyway, and having the top spot worked out makes things a lot easier, and cheaper.

[alm]

Thanks Mike (for some intelligence on this board.)

The guy who I think has had a short horse in the past 2 months is Baffert...I know you don\'t think a great deal about LAL and I respect that you don\'t believe that a trainer has this kind of micro-control, but check out the type of workouts the horse was put through prior to his final race of last season (Dec 19).  Mostly very fast.

Then check out the workouts prior to his 2 races this season.  Mostly slow. There is no comparison.

Even the 6f workout before the SA Derby was slow for this animal.  We are going to learn a lot about the horse through his Derby workouts at Churchill.  I think that a great deal more pressure will be put on him; I think he will either crack, which may not be apparent, or he will rise to a level we haven\'t seen yet.

I\'ll be honest with you.  You have done more to convince me to take ESKY seriously than I am trying to do to convince you otherwise.  If I can get 5-2 on the horse (odds I hardly ever bet) I may consider that an overlay at this point.

[miff]

\"I know you don\'t think a great deal about LAL and I respect that you don\'t believe that a trainer has this kind of micro-control, but check out the type of workouts the horse was put through prior to his final race of last season (Dec 19). Mostly very fast\".


Al,

Something very interesting about Baffy re LAL.I noticed right away(as you stated)that he does not \"drill\" LAL as he does with just about every horse. There are two possibilities imo,considering that Baffy is world class getting to and winning on big days.

1.From being around this horse Baffy felt early on that this horse would not hold up to his normal drilling.

2.Baffy felt early on that he could finesse this horse until spring and then press down hard for a top effort.

My gut tells me that number 1 is the reason. I\'ve heard/read subtle comments from Baffy about this horse and I think there is something.I have never heard he is unsound and I know of people who watch him train and feel he will win the derby.

As with all of them, watching him train the next few weeks will be important.


Mike

[sekrah]

Playing a 20-horse race superfecta with chalk on top doesn\'t make it any less chalky.  Esky backers are dreaming of this perfect trip where he sits out of trouble a length or two off the leaders and then gets his opening, makes the move on the turn, blows them away in the stretch.   There might be 2 or 3 horses in the entire race who get a dream-perfect trip like this and there\'s absolutely no way to possibly predict.   Only 4 favorites have won in the past 30 years, not ironically this is when they really started expanding the field.  Every year we talk about horses that \"I can\'t see how this horse loses.\", nearly every that horse loses.

Throw in that this 2-1 is coming off a top and will be a strong favorite to regress/bounce, throw in that there\'s a handful of other legitimate contenders that look very dangerous to make big forward moves, and this makes Esky a horrible bet whether you bet him for the win, the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta.  There\'s been far better looking horses, with far better looking patterns, against far weaker-looking fields to come up short over the years.

[sekrah]

SonicDonn Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of course, any horse can be beaten by a bad trip.
>
> With good health and a reasonably fair trip, \"Big
> E\" wins the Derby.
>
> In your heart, all of you know this is true.


In my heart I know Esky is a massive sucker bet that will steal money from even the most experienced gambler (who should know better).   Happens nearly every year.

[mjellish]

True, I think betting any ESK at 2-1 to win is probably not the way to go.  But in a 20 horse field you can get a great return in the exotics even with the favorite on top and a couple of logical horses underneath.  Here\'s a couple of recent examples.

2008
Big Brown 2.4 - 1
Eight Belles 13.1 - 1
Dennis of Cork 27.20 - 1
Tale Of Ekati 37.4 - 1

$2 Tri $3445.60
$2 Super $58,737.80


2007
Street Sense 4.9 - 1
Hard Spun 10.0 - 1
Curlin 5.0 - 1
Imawildanncrazyguy 28.90 - 1

$2 Tri $440
$2 Super $58,092.80


2006
Barbaro 6.1 - 1
Bluegrass Cat 30 - 1
Steppenwolfer 16.3 -1
(Deadheat for 4th)
Jazi 24.2 - 1
Brother Derek 7.7 - 1

$2 Tri $11,418.40
$2 Super $169,720.80 to Jazil
$2 Super $119,678.00 to Brother Derek


2004
Smarty Jones 4.1 - 1
Lion Heart 5.4 - 1
Imperialism 10.9 - 1
Limehouse 41.7 - 1

$2 Tri $987.60
$2 Super $82,760.40



So I have to strongly disagree with the point that you can\'t make money by putting horses like ESK in the exotics.  It depends upon how you bet it and who you bet it with.  Even if the race goes ESK/LAL/SC/DUB the tri will probably pay $300+ and the super will probably still pay at least $5k.  Not saying that is how anyone should bet it, but it can be done.

[P-Dub]

Sonic,

If you are right about Esky, I hope you do find some nice ones underneath.  Just tough to take a short price for me.

Good luck on Derby Day.

[sekrah]

I stand corrected ;-)... to a degree

Funny Cide won 03 Derby, paid $26 to win and the Tri paid $663 and change and the Super paid around $2795 with 5/2 Empire Maker and 6-1 Peace Rules underneath.   The Fusaichi Pegagus tri/super was 435/1635 with an 11-1 and 6-1 underneath.

You need those 30-1+ bombers underneath to get your $5k triples, $20k supers.  At this point, based on the figures and patterns, I believe LAL has a better % chance of being ITM than Esky.  If they both hit the board it\'s going to take alot of air out of the exotics.