Arkansas Derby

[Leamas57]

This race has a lot of speed. UOB, SS, and maybe LOD. Hard to believe PUlsion was on front last time, but then, Nakatani...Wonder if Bridge will give UOB a chance--they didn\'t invite Corbett to this one. Also, Naki might not want to move Pulsion inside after the break this time--if he doesn\'t, he\'s crazier than I thought.

Point is, I think the horses who run a little off the pace are the key. Dublim will get better ride from Thompson, NP can rate a little, and the spoiler of the exotics (don\'t think he wins) could be the late entry, Northern Giant.Probably Dublim and NP in the exacta, then SS, NG, or Pulsion. Not the best betting race.

Leamas

[alm]

NP...no problem.

[sekrah]

If Super Saver has gotten the trips that Esky has gotten, he\'d be destroying his fields by 8+ lenghts as well and we\'d all be hailing him as the 2-1, 5/2 odds-on choice.   No, he\'s up near the front in 47/1:11.3, 46.3/1:11.2, while Esky gets 47.4/1:12.2, 49.1/1:13.2...   SS is a very easy play for me tomorrow, and just as good a horse as Esky, if not better..   There are great questions about Esky\'s endurance because he\'s never had to open a race with a hard 6 furlongs.   I have no questions about Super Saver\'s endurance..  He can go out and run hard the first 6 furlongs and still have 90%+ of his tank left.   If he gets even a moderate repreive in fractions, he will absolutely bury this field going away.

[Leamas57]

The track at Oaklawn seemed to favor speed today, so I expect it will favor SS (spped) tomorrow. I think he gets beat in the last half-furlong, though. If I don\'t use him on top, I will be plenty prepared for him to beat me. I will have him in second or third on my tickets, but that doesn\'t mean you can\'t score with him...

Leamas

[sekrah]

I said it in another post, but if Super Saver gets half as lucky as Esky has gotten with the early fractions, he wins this race going away in a romp.

If there\'s a hot pace to run at, I think there\'s longshot potential in Pulsion, who should have a nice forward move in him here.  Otherwise, It\'s SS\'s race to lose.

[Leamas57]

Yes, but if Nakatani guns him again, it won\'t happen.

Leamas

[sekrah]

I agree..  Maybe those were Biancone\'s instructions for the Fla Derby?  Try to keep Rule honest?

Pulsion will rate beautifully, they should let him do that, and hope for a good pace.

[Leamas57]

I can see a trainer wanting to try that. In this case, he should tuck in as that post would steal too much energy even if he did get the lead. I am still angry with Nakatani that he moved Dublin too soon. Lukas is probably, too, if you read the DRF piece. He said that because of that ride, they didn\'t get what they needed from the race.

Leamas

[sekrah]

Nakatani is terrible.  I don\'t know why anyone serious in the game gives him good mounts anymore.

[colt]

Leamas wrote - \"I am still angry with Nakatani that he moved Dublin too soon. Lukas is probably, too, if you read the DRF piece. He said that because of that ride, they didn\'t get what they needed from the race.\"
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C-Nak didn\'t cost Dublin a better placing - the horse simply QUIT.  Coming out of the gate and into the first turn, it was clear that Dublin was somewhat fresh, which forced C-Nak to go wide into the first turn in order to keep Dublin in the clear.  Thinking he had horse, C-Nak did what he does best>>Race-Riding, which forced Gomez and LAL to check off heels.  NP exploded heading into the turn/stretch which forced C-Nak to move Dublin to keep pace with NP to no avail.  Dublin is now clearly out of gas midway into the stretch and starts to drift outwards.

BTW, Dublin still hasn\'t paired up that effort in the Hopeful after 4 races, and DWL still holds the copyrights to all the one-line excuses as to why his horses don\'t win.

[Halo Fire]

It all comes down to today with Dublin. He must run big. Period. By 7 o\'clock we\'ll know if he\'s Charismatic or Dollar Bill.

[mjellish]

Couldn\'t agree more.  It\'s make or break time for Dublin.  Everything says he should move forward and run the best race of his life today if he is developing as he should.  I actually agree with Lukas that the ride Nak gave him in his last was dreadful.  Horse moved way to soon, went wider than he should have had to and had no shot after that.

We should also find out what Super Saver is made of.  If he gets the distance he should move forward as well.

I\'ve already gave my opinion on Noble\'s Promise.  He may hang on at 1 1/8th under the right circumstances, but I don\'t think he has a prayer in Kentucky.

[Lost Cause]

Halo Fire Wrote:
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> It all comes down to today with Dublin. He must
> run big. Period. By 7 o\'clock we\'ll know if he\'s
> Charismatic or Dollar Bill.


Regradless of what he does today he\'ll be in the derby..Lukas has a horse with enough earnings so it won\'t matter if he ran last..

[sekrah]

For them two horses to set those kind of fractions (especially with the winner) and still outkick the closers, that was a freakishly absurd speed bias at Oaklawn today.

[mjellish]

Or an indictment of the closers.  Dublin has the look of a horse who just doesn\'t want to win.  If he were mine I would put him back sprinting and find out if he can pass horse in the stretch.  I also highly doubt Super Saver wants to go 1 1/8th, much less a 1 1/4.  

The early fractions of ARK Derby were fast and the late pace was slow, so I think this is the right way to look at this race.  Suppose some will want to give NP a pass because of the tough start.  But to me, it suggests he can\'t change his running style and come from far back, and I already feel strongly that he can\'t press or set a realistic pace and get 1 1/8th or longer.