Eskendereya

[sekrah]

Oops, Going back to 2000 there\'s just 3 of those.. I was thinking 5/2 or cheaper.. which brings 2 more into the mix

2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus
2001 - Point Given
2003 - Empire Maker (5/2)
2005 - Bellamy Road (5/2)
2008 - Big Brown

IMO Esky has less impressive credentials heading into the Derby than all 5 of those clear favorites.

[rhagood]

Bandage question answered correctly.
Passing on FLA Derby was per Zayat,
Pletcher was ok to run there.
Zayat may have been buying time for potential sale, also didn\'t  like 6 weeks into Derby (5 weeks has worked fine as of late, previously thought to be too long).
Training in FLA is no problem, same route taken by Dutrow and Big Brown.

The trip may beat him but how many best of generation horses get beat by a bad trip in the derby?  A bounce may beat him but it would have to be a really big one and it could happen. His pattern has similarities to Big Brown who did run a new top off a big negative fig in 2008. As for the rest, most horses don\'t hit new tops in KD (well documented) so where does the competition come from? Everyone is trying to make the case against but no one is making a case for anyone else yet.

[rayj54]

My friend\'s point was that all theses things take their toll and believe me he knows.

[jimbo66]

I love to bet against favorites.  I \"invent\" as many imaginary chinks as anybody.  I am probably one of the only people that bet against Rachel and Zenyatta in every one of their races last year.  

But, some of the \"chinks\" being thrown at Eskendereya on this board in the last week are funny and somewhat \"unbecoming\" for a board that is about speed figures.  

1.  He skipped the Florida Derby for the Wood because a sale was in the works and they didn\'t want to race him in the event it was consumated.

2.  He wore fronts because one of Pletcher\'s horses \"ran down\" at Aqueduct in the days leading up to the Wood.

3.  Pletcher wants to train him in Florida instead of NY until he ships because he doesn\'t like the NY surface right now.

4.  The horse towers over the field on any reputable figures.  He has a \"double figure\" edge in that his last two races are both faster than anything anybody else has run ever.

5.  He is bred to run all day.   The 1 1/4 is not going to get him beat.

6.  To point to the November Pro-Ride race as \"the only race he faced competition\" and use that as the litmus test for the horse\'s quality is just silly.  Pro-Ride is another surface, and he got an unbelievable bad trip that day, stopped several times.  

7.  Yes, the pace will be faster in the Derby.  But NO, that doesn\'t mean the wide trip that people on this board keep pointing to.  Actually, it usually means the opposite.  The miserable wide trips in the Derby are usually caused by slow paces where the field bunches up.  This Derby figures to have a very quick pace, which will string out the field and allow stalkers and closers to have more lanes to run through.  (Real Quiet and Fusaichi Pegasus\'s trips come to mind).

8.  This horse appears to have a fine rating gear.  He has rated kindly off of 46, 48 and 49 in his last three.  No reason to believe he will have trouble rating off a fast pace in the Derby.

9.  THis last point is almost the most important in this handicapper\'s mind.  There has been NOBODY stepping up as a viable alternative to this horse.  Name a quality horse moving in the right direction?  This reminds me a lot of the Big Brown year where there was basically nobody to bet against Big Brown.  Other years there are multiple quality horses coming into their own around the Derby.  Not this year.  Sydney\'s Candy is the only other horse I can think of but the race by Line of David and his now running in the Derby just puts too damn much speed into the race for me to consider him.

If this horse trains well into the Derby, he will be a deserving favorite, in the 2-1 range, and will be the most likely winner.

[moosepalm]

It\'s often presented as an either/or situation that if you don\'t like Esky at 2/1 or 5/2, then make a case for someone else.  Well, if you\'re not strong on someone else, either, then you pass the race, which is a viable third option.  For a number of reasons, including history, I\'m not sold on Esky at 5/2 or less, but, that doesn\'t mean I will find someone else.  If I do, it will be relative to his odds, which is a complete unknown right now.  Isn\'t it ultimately about value?

[sekrah]

Passing the Derby is a third option but it\'s a poor one IMO.   There is always value in the 20-horse Derby.  The one race in a year where you get more public, non-horse player money than any other race.  It might be a 40-1 who only has a 5% chance of winning, but that\'s your play.

There isn\'t a person here who had the winner last year yet I\'ve seen the word \"lock\" thrown around with Esky about half a dozen times in the past week.

[moosepalm]

There is value in nearly every race.  Whether you feel confident that you have found it is the key, for me.  If you are assured, already, that you will find the right value in this year\'s Derby, you have my admiration.  For me, however, the existence of a betting opportunity is only one piece of the puzzle.  My personal ROI over the years in the Derby strongly supports the wisdom of \"the pass,\" if I can\'t find a confident value play.  Good luck in finding yours.

[sekrah]

I\'ve seen some 4-horse fields at Laurel and Aqueduct that failed to produce any value.  

[moosepalm]

Couldn\'t agree with you more.  There is ample value to be found in the Derby.  I think we also agree upon that.  The issue is confidently finding it in a twenty-horse field, where history suggests that many of the normal predictive indicators in the thoroughbred game can be illusory on the first Saturday in May.  It is a fun race to analyze, perhaps more so than any race of the year.  I don\'t think, however, that field size should be the determining factor in prompting one to reach for his or her wallet.  Value is not directly proportional to field size.  It is a function of odds, and one\'s assessment of probabilities independent of those odds.  If you find that in this year\'s Derby, by all means, jump in with both feet.  I hope I do, too.

[jimbo66]

Moosepalm,

There is no such thing IMO as a \"confident\" play in a 20 horse field.  There is jus too much that can happen.

However, there is no doubt that the Derby, Preakness and Belmont are three of the most bettable races of the year if for the only reason the amount of \"non-sharp\" money in the pools.  Yes, I know that some years the \"non-sharp\" money can win, like Mine that Bird (an unbelievable underlay at 50-1), but most of us will take our chances.  How many times are hopeless horses in the Preakness and Belmont 15 and 20 to 1, instead of 80-1?

To steal a poker term, I think the best to hope for is to \"confidently\" get your money in with the best hand and hope for the best. (best hand, being \"best value\").

[moosepalm]

Jimbo, I agree with you about the money which skews the odds in \"our\" favor.  That\'s an edge, and that\'s one issue in value.   Another issue is the challenge of betting the race.  Each of us has his or her strengths or weaknesses.  I think, in a general sense, that is predicated on finding patterns for which we have been most successful.  That is another side of the coin in finding value.  For me, I tend to find value in a comfort zone of determinants, based on a larger sampling of similar variables.  I find very few of those similar variables in the Triple Crown races.  Now, that\'s me.  Then again, it\'s my money.  So, while I absolutely agree with you about the funny money which improves the margins for the knowledgeable player, it still comes down to how much knowledge you have about the particular race, or kind of race, in the first place.

[Leamas57]

Yes, it may be a tough race to beat, but the one payoff makes up for a lot of ripped tickets. I have missed the super by inches and continue to play it. It seems to be the kind of day where you have an edge despite the takeout--especially if you are following all the preps. My secretary made an exacta bet using Bluegrass Cat in one of the TC races because she liked horses with \"cat\" in their names. The one time I forgot to make her bet, and...you guessed it! I had to take my lumps on the Derby and pay her a couple hundred on Monday!

Leamas

[moosepalm]

Jimbo, with apologies to Richiebee for the possible violation of his maxim about not responding to your own post, I wanted to refine something I said above which would have suggested that all Triple Crown races are created equal.  Clearly, that is not the case.  I have found the analytical variables going into the Belmont are quite different than the Kentucky Derby, both in terms of historical and Thorograph patterns.  My \"comfort zone\" is much greater.  There is still funny money going in there as well, though not so much as in the Derby, except perhaps when there is a Triple Crown possibility on the line.  Then, it\'s Katie bar the door.

[TGJB]

I\'m wondering what Sarah Silverman could do with the title of this string...

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> I\'m wondering what Sarah Silverman could do with
> the title of this string...


I haven\'t stopped laughing.