Super Saver and Rule

[covelj70]

Regardless of where everyone comes out on the great Eskendereya debate, I think some of the more interesting horses in the race are also in Pletcher\'s barn in Super Saver and Rule.

Assuming SS paired or move forward slightly yesterday (I have no idea but I doubt he jumped up alot), he has a good looking pattern and room to go forward off the big two year old top.

Especially if SS retains Calvin, he may become my key horse as he will go off at a big price given that the many pace handicappers will consider him to be a victim of the pace.

I had a bundle on his nose yesterday (with stupidly nothing underneath) but maybe I lost a battle but stayed alive for the war as if he wins yesterday, he goes off much lower in the Derby and instead, I think he flies under the radar screen heading into this thing.

And before anyone reminds me about Pletcher\'s record in the Derby, this horse reminds me precisely of another Pletcher mount, Bluegrass Cat, who himself blew up many an exotic ticket on Barbaro Day.

We have already had the Rule debate on this board awhile back after the Florida Derby but he has an even better pattern and spacing.

I understand all of the pace handicappers throwing these horses out but I don\'t think either of these horses will be right on the lead and I am not a pace handicapper anyway as I find the pace is completely different from expectations as often as not.  I don\'t really think all of the jocks on these front running types on Derby Day are going to run one another into the ground.  A few of them might but not as many as I think consensus expects.

at any rate, assuming they train well up to the race and draw ok and especially if Calvin stays on SS, these are my keys at this stage.

[Michael D.]

SS definitely has Borel now. That\'s what I was hoping when I took him in pools 2 and 3. I just wish they had taken a better route. Got caught short earnings though and the options were limited. Stuck now with 3 weeks. And we still have the distance to worry about, though 16 or 17 of these probably won\'t get the distance.

SS will take some money with Calvin up. Rule will be longer.

[sekrah]

I use alot of pace-handicapping and SS goes up in my book because he\'s actually fought tough paces.  I will definently be using him in the Derby.   If Calvin can relax this horse and get a good trip, I think he\'ll be near the front at the end.  Might be a big If, but I still like him to get 1 1/4 more than I like Esky to.

[mjellish]

Sek,

How do you get that Super Saver is more likely to get 1 1/4 than ESK?  Just want to know your logic.

By my eye, SS roughly went the ARK Derby in 23.05, 46.80, 111.28 136.60 & 149.42.  That translates to a final 3/8ths in 38.14, which isn\'t exactly flying late.  

The race should have set up perfectly for stalker.  But as far as I can tell LOD blitzed the field early and no one came to get him like they should have.  He was very leg weary and drifting in at he end of the race.  SS was right there but appeared to be gassed and also looked leg weary, drifting out and then back in again.  I don\'t know what to make of Dublin.  Given the way the race set up he should have went right by them both, but he hung instead after going widest of the three all the way around.  He probably earned the best figure in the race, but he looks like one of those horses that just doesn\'t want to win.  But with decent numbers you almost have to use him underneath in the exotics.

So how do you take out of this race that SS is more likely to get the 1 1/4?  Did I miss something?

[sekrah]

My conclusion from that race is that LOD is far better than anyone imagined (obviously, since he won).  His dirt speed was masked by the synthetics.  The turf let him to start showing it off a little.   It was an ultra hot pace.  I thought SS and LOD would get passed in the stretch but both showed lots of guts to hold on (and perhaps the closers were missing a cylinder yesterday).

So SS\'s splits were:  23.05, 23.75, 24.48, 25.32, and he came home in 12.82 ?    Super Saver can get the 1 1/4 if Calvin can get him to relax off the pace.. run a 24, 24, 24, 24 through the first mile and I think this horse has as much

What have we seen from Esky?  24.5, 24.8, 24.3, 24.2, and then kicking clear in 12.2.   From what I have seen, IF they can get Super Saver to rate at splits like that, I believe SS will be stronger at 1 1/4.

At a potential 15 or 20-1 derby price, I\'ll take that chance he\'ll be in the mix at the end because he\'s a very fast and gutsy racehorse who I think can overcome a troubled trip.   Endorsement is still my key though.  I think Endorsement will have the biggest lungs on the card at Churchill Downs, May 1st.

[jimbo66]

Well,

I guess I will likely put Super Saver into the Winner\'s Circle with this comment, but I think this horse has close to a zero shot of winning the derby.  I have read more \"good reviews\" of his Arkansas Derby than I can believe in the last 24 hours.  Line of David is an average horse who went out to an extremely fast pace while Super Saver and Dublin sat GREAT trips.  (different story on Noble\'s Promise who stumbled early and was too far back).  With Line of David absolutely staggering down the lane and looking for a place to lay down, neither Super Saver or Dublin could pick him up.  An absolutely awful performance by Dublin IMO, as he had shown he could rate and had no excuse not to get up.  At least we can say that Super Saver may not want to rate.  

So, after sitting the catbird\'s seat behind Line of David, going 1 1/8, without being able to get by, we are going to add another 4 or 5 speed horses to the mix, most better than Line of David (Sydney\'s Candy and Rule for starters) AND go an extra 1/8 of a mile and Super Saver is going to improve?  

Not with a nickel of my money on him in any of the slots.  

Yeah, the pattern may be OK, but there are other things to factor in racing and none of those other things works in Super Saver\'s favor IMO.

Sekrah, the fact that you think the 1 1/4 will be better for SUper SAver than for Eskendereya has to be one of the wilder comments I have seen on this board, this side of Chuckles the Clown............

[sekrah]

Line of David is an average horse?  Why is that?  Because he couldn\'t run on the mighty synthetics, that makes him an average horse?

That\'s one of the most wildest comments I\'ve seen on here.

Why can Eskendereya get 1 1/4?  Because he magically makes all the other horses around him run slower and let him get away slower fractions?  Please..  Eskendereya has run 6 route races and has had to run an honest pace in exactly ZERO OF THEM!!!   They\'ve all been absurdly slow!!  

Super Saver has had 5 route races and he\'s had to run BALLS TO THE WALL in ALL FIVE OF THEM.  Going all the way back to his maiden win plus four graded stakes races.  They all were faster than par at 4f and 6f.  Esky\'s races? All slower than par.. MUCH, MUCH slower than par.

Super Saver clearly doesn\'t have Esky\'s intimidation ability to slow down the rest of the field, right?

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

I am taking a leap that because you are posting on this board, you both understand and put value in speed figures.

Eskendereya has run faster than Super Saver on anybody\'s figures.

Yes, Super Saver has raced in some races with faster pace figures.  But guess what, Eskendereya is not a \"speed\" horse, doesn\'t need the lead, and can sit and pounce.  Super Saver has not shown an ability to pass horses, at all.  If he was EVER going to pass a horse it would have been Line of David as LOD staggered down the lane yesterday.  But he couldn\'t do that.  Line of David is an average horse not because he ran on synthetics, but because he had two wins under his belt before yesterday.  A maiden turf and a short field allowance turf race.  At best he is unproven.  

Unless Eskendereya bounces badly, or gets a bad trip, he is easily the most likely winner of the Derby.  If Esky doesn\'t win, it won\'t be Super Saver that beats him.

[mjellish]

Ok Sekrah,

Listen.  You want to put your money on Super Saver then go ahead.  You have every right to bet your opinion.  But don\'t sit here and try to talk nonsense to people who know better.  Super Saver didn\'t dig in to hang on gamely.  He STAGGERED home yesterday, just like the winner.  Super Saver came home his final 3/8ths in 38.14 on a quick track after getting a dream trip sitting all by himself right behind a sole leader that was cutting swift fractions. In comparison, Esk came home his final 3/8th INTO A HEADWIND on a much slower track after going 3w 3w.  

If Super Saver was going to improve with added distance he should have shown it yesterday, his first trip at 1 1/8th after sitting a perfect trip.  Ask any trainer out there if they would take the trip Super Saver had in a $1,000,000 race and they will say yes.  Bu Super Saver didn\'t go by anyone.  He staggered home, passed exactly zero horseflesh, bore out a bit on the turn and then drifted in through the stretch.  That means leg weary.  That\'s two all out races in a row coming off a layoff, neither one of which led to a victory.  And without seeing his sheet, at the added distance with even more early speed in the race I say that means Bounce, with a capital B.  

Now I would reserve my right to change my opinion about the Bounce factor if comes back to show me something in his training with a strong, double gallop out ala Dennis of Cork or something.  But don\'t try to tell me Super Saver is going to be better at 1 1/4 than ESK, or that Line of David is suddenly right up there as well.

Sheer nonsense.

[sekrah]

Esky rates better.. I\'m not denying that..  This is a speed handicapping website, that means nothing else can be brought into the discussion?   I buy and use TG figs.  I also use BRIS pace/class ratings with them..  I gather as much information as humanly possible before I place my hard-earned money down on that tellers counter.  I\'m not a person who is a be-all, end-all speed handicapper.  Are those the qualifications that are required to post around here?  Well if those are the requirements why are you posting?  Based on TG figures, Esky would be a very high % bounce candidate on May 1st, yet he\'s your key at 2-1?  I believe there\'s lots of missing information that goes into a speed figure.

I\'ll also put my pace handicapping skills up against just about anybody. I\'ve seen alot over the years and I\'m a firm believer that if they get Super Saver to rate, he\'ll put up better final times and better speed figures than Esky at 1 1/8 and beyond.  I already said that will be a difficult chore to get the horse to rate.. But at 15 to 20-1, he offers far more value than a 2-1 Esky who has A) yet to be tested at a serious pace, B) encountered perfect trips except for when he faltered in the Juvy, C) has shown zero tactical speed, D) figures to bounce on TG figs.

[sekrah]

Mjellish..  When and where has Esky had to run a hard fraction?   Or is that irrelevant to you?

Super Saver will be a use, not a key.  He\'s not exactly my premo Derby pick.

[mjellish]

It\'s not irrelevant to me.  I think I\'ve even posted that here on this board.  But no one, and I mean no one, that means not one of these other three year olds, has done anything close to what ESK has done on the track this year.  And I am not going to try to make up a bad reason to discount that.  

I agree with you that ESK hasn\'t run fast early.  He hasn\'t had to, and I don\'t see him as having to in the Derby.  Now he he reacts to that situation is whole different ballgame.  But if he relaxes and get\'s a fairly clean trip, by my count he has 10 lengths to spare on the rest of this field.  Now I haven\'t been up here on this board saying that that makes him the winner, but it\'s a lot to overcome.  And if he trains lights out the final week before the derby then I\'m going to have some tough decisions to make because I haven\'t found much of value that I can be confident in to use underneath him.  

For what it\'s worth, I like your take on Endorsement.  I even ordered up his sheet and plan to keep a close eye on him.  Call me crazy, but for some reason I also think Discreetly Mine may jump up in the Derby.  Mom and Dad both won at 1 1/4 and it looks like he can run all day as well.  He also has a decent two year old top and should get a good trip right behind the speed.  He\'s going to have to improve a bit to hit the board, but if he does it should be at big odds and that would be enough even if Lucky and/or Sid\'s Candy hit the board with him.

But do I really want to bet my $ on Discreetly Mine to hit the board in the Derby?
Does that give you an idea of how bad I may be reaching trying to find SOMEONE to make money in the Derby?  And I\'m still not going anywhere near Super Saver.

For what it\'s worth, I think Zenyatta would have burried Super Saver yesterday.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

You will get your 15-1 or 20-1.  The value will be there.  Good luck with it.

For the record, there is a difference between being a figure player and a sheets purist.  Yes, I guess there will be lots of purists that will play Eskendereya to bounce, the same way they played Big Brown to bounce.  I am not going to play a bounce unless there is something I see to warrant it (negative workouts or visible appearance).  I just re-watched the horse\'s three races this year now and he has improved from start to start.  He has become more tractable and finished faster in each race.  

Last point, then I am finished with it for now.  This fast pace you keep talking about it is going to hurt your horse SUper Saver, more than it is going to hurt Eskendereya.  What makes you think Eskendereya needs a slow pace and/or the lead?  First race back he was on top of a 47.3 / 1:11.3 pace, then he rated off of 47.4/1:12.2, then he rated even farther off of a 49.1/1:13.2.  And if it matters, in his dirt race last year, he sat 5th of 5, before winning.  

He is the tractable.

[sekrah]

10 lenghts on the rest of the field after beating a 2nd-tier crop of three year olds by 9?  I respectively disagree with the figure on the Wood.  Awesome Act throws a shoe at the gate and runs what, a 1 or 2?  I love these figures more than anything but I\'ll pass on that one.

The questions of how Esky reacts to getting behind a wall of horses and having to use tactical speed to hit the holes is enough to steer me away from 2-1.   He has never had to shoot a gap and re-rate.  He\'s been a one-run horse so far.

Agree that Discreetly Mine is due for a massive jump-up one of these days for sure.  Maybe during the Triple Crown, if not he certaintly should be a major player this summer.

[covelj70]

Jeez, I didn\'t realize I would start such a debate with this but since there\'s one going on, let me add a few things on Super Saver.

First, assuming he paired or moved forward slightly yesterday, more so than any horse heading into the race other than Rule, this one has a pattern that suggests he will move forward in the Derby so we wouldn\'t be playing him to be the horse he was yesterday, it was the horse he will be on Derby Day.

Second, I don\'t think Pletcher had him fully cranked for yesterday.  He needed to run well but Pletcher didn\'t want him over the top 3 weeks before the Derby.

Third, and this I think is a big deal, horses with a little turf pedigree tend to get over the Churchill track very well and this guy obviously has that kind of pedigree.  Obviously at least some of the Maria\'s Mons like the Churchill surface (see Monarchos) and other recent winners with turfy pedigrees include Barbaro and Big Brown. Remember, this guy set a stakes record as a 2 year old over the Churchill surface so I think it\'s fair to say he might like the Churchill strip more than the Oaklawn surface.

Bottom line from points 2 and 3 is that we should see a better horse on Drby day than we did yesterday so I think too much emphasis on what we saw yesterday becomes counter productive after a point.

Fourth, in terms of him not passing Line of David after a dream trip, LOD got loose on the lead on a race track that turned out to be a merry go round with the 1 2 3 finishers running around the track in that order.  Now, maybe Dublin\'s no good either for not being able to pass SS or maybe Line of David is a really good horse for not letting either SS or Dublin pass but Churchill is a different surface in that regard as well.

Finally, I think anyone who tosses Calvin out of the Derby needs to rethink things.  In a 20 horse field, when about 18 of the jockeys are scared out of their minds, this guy will make up alot of lenghts.

In the last 3 Derby\'s he\'s been 1, 3rd and 1st and we are going to toss him all together on a horse with a live pattern that\'s going 3rd off the layoff that set a stakes record over the course as a 2 year old that he\'s bred to love?  Come on, really?

I agree that unless something really bad happens to Esk either before the race or during the race (and I really hope it doesn\'t as I would love to see him take a run at the triple crown), they are all running for second but I think this guy deserves a look underneath at 15 to 1 or more.