Stately Victor

[alm]

Please post some views about Stately Victor.  Am interested in hearing what others think about his win and his chances on May 1.

For my pathetic view:  I broke the race down to Paddy and Stately and bet Dale Romans and his blonde girlfriend, whom I have followed to the winners in similar situations, winning big in the past.

Not this time.  And \'no\' I also don\'t bet exactas.

I am sure most on the site think Stately is a dead certain poly horse.  Maybe, maybe not.  But I would like opinions.

[Niall]

The horse looked live based on # pwr 3rd back at Gulf. He checked on the backstretch and lost all chance. I bet him next time out and Prado had to hesitate just a touch before he tipped him out from the 2 path to the 8 and closed a ton ... Certainly this spot was a reach but I guess a case could be made for the number he recd 1st time over the local strip. Toss in a little oh this is synthetic and there\'s your winner right there ...

[jimbo66]

Alm,

I would ask a question to you.  Who was the last Blue Grass horse that \"stepped up\" and ran well in that race and then carried the form to the Derby on dirt (since the Bluegrass went to poly).

I think the answer is nobody has run even remotely well.  (Street Sense losing and running slow in the Bluegrass then winning the derby doesn\'t count, since he stepped BACKWARDS in the Bluegrass, which is the opposite of Stately Victor).

i think Mjellish or somebody else posted this BEFORE the race, but basically I think you throw out the results of the Bluegrass no matter what they are, when you handicap the Derby.  If you think Stately Victor\'s prior form before the Bluegrass makes him a Derby contender, then play him.  

Methinks he might suck up and finish 12th, passing a bunch of gassed speed horses.  

Anybody else find it a shame that one of the most beautiful tracks in the country, Keenland, has been unable to put a relevant surface on their track for the last 20 years, making it almost a useless prep in the Bluegrass (except to throw it out).  Back in the \"dirt days\", they had the insane inside speed bias on most days that made winners out of Sinister Minister and Millennium Wind, amongst others.  Now they have polytrack, which has proven out to be worse than cushion and pro-ride with providing consistent predictable results (by many handicappers).

[sekrah]

Small sample size to work with there as this is just the 4th Bluegrass to be run on poly but I\'ll go with another poly track.  I believe Hard Spun came forward in his first poly start in the Lanes End at Turfway, then finished 2nd in the Derby to Street Sense.

Or was this an attack on Keeneland/Bluegrass pre-poly as well?  

In 2005, I\'m not 100% certain but I believe Closing Argument came forward on the dirt Bluegrass.. I remember him being very wide and finishing 3rd a couple lengths back of High Limit (who got 1)   CA got 2nd in the Derby to Giacomo.    I can\'t remember what his Holy Bull fig was but it couldn\'t have been that great if he went off at 70-1.

[alm]

Thank you for the post, but I wasn\'t trying to make a case for SV in the Derby, just want others\' opinions.  

The only thing I can say about your post is this: you\'re not betting the past Blue Grass runners in this year\'s Derby.  You\'re betting for or against THIS year\'s BG runners.

The past is prologue, for sure, but longshots are made out of unusual circumstances and developments.  In other words, I try to look ahead a lot more than I look back.

Can this horse repeat HIS form in the Derby or not?

[mjellish]

He will need more than a repeat.  A repeat is still too slow.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

I said I thought he could \"suck up for 12th and pass a few tired speed horses\".  To try and be even CLEARER, i would say he is not going to repeat the form he showed in the Blue Grass on dirt, ever, in his entire racing career. But hey, he will be 40-1, so if you like him, don\'t let any of us talk you out of him.

[alm]

You\'re strange...you must read every other word...I never said I like him...but this is obviously a horse who finally showed what he could do in a certain circumstance...my question was what you thought he might do in the Derby...I know that now, so thank you.

[miff]

Al,

Stately Victor\'s poly win came up modest, 94 Beyer, app a TG 3.Under normal circumstances a total toss going forward. SV is slow and unaccomplished on dirt.SV may get a piece if a front end derby meltdown occurs(like the slug Giacomo\'s derby)

At present, dynamics for this years derby features like 5 horses with competitive figures but very similar running styles.Several are one dimensional speed types that the connections will say do not need the lead,nonsense.One dimensional speeds taken out of their preferred running style usually end up with an X performance.

Total tosses on several fronts are speedy types Rule,SS,and one or two others.I laugh when I hear about Rule or SS\'s pattern, when both are coming off gut wrenchers where they were forced to lay their bodies down and still tasted defeat. At least Sidney C has not been gutted by front end type wars having controlled modest paces.SC has license to throw a big one notwithstanding that he may be the speed of the speed, going ist time dirt.

Hard to understand why Sadler runs both SC and LOD even though there are separate owners.LOD,dead send type, a perfect Preakness horse with 6 weeks rest esp after running his guts out on Sat.

Anyway, in contrast to my affinity for speedy types, I\'ll lean to tossing any horse up near the front and look to the suck up type slugs to fill out the gimmicks.

Mike

[jack72906]

Did a little digging in the archives and only 9 horses from the BG stakes finished in the top 4 of the Derby and only Street Sense won since 2000.

Most of the horses that ran in the BG that hit the top 4 on Derby day were running only their second race of their 3yo campaign. Closing Argument matched a 3 in the BG and jumped to a 1 in the Derby. SS ran a 1 in Tampa and then had a slight move back to a 2 before matching his 2yo Top of 2n in the Derby. The others to hit the board were Lion Heart (2nd in 04), Bluegrass Cat(2nd), Invisible Ink(2nd), Proud Citizen(2nd), More Than Ready(4th), Limehouse(4th) and Peace Rules(3rd).

On to Stately Victor, strictly based on his 2yo foundation and lack of a decent top he\'s tough to endorse for anything other than a potential 3rd or 4th with a lot of luck. I can give him a pass in the races at GS. The second turf try was run with the rail at 24 feet which favors front running types and even the first turf race with the rail at 72ft. the front running Saint Eligius was running with Lentenor and Doubles Partner. Not his running style.

Based on percentages of all the horses that have hit the Top 4 since 1998 he\'s really tough to endorse for anything IMO.

[swale]

jack72906 Wrote:
The others to hit the board were
> Lion Heart (2nd in 04), Bluegrass Cat(2nd),
> Invisible Ink(2nd), Proud Citizen(2nd), More Than
> Ready(4th), Limehouse(4th) and Peace Rules(3rd).
>

Nitpick - Proud Citizen ran in (and won) the Lexington, not the Blue Grass, in 2002.

[alm]

Mike

Owners are owners...Sadler may not have a choice.  Sidney has run so slowly early that maybe he will rate?

My problem with Stately is his connections...I have deep respect for Maker. Still, this is the time of year everyone gets overexcited.  He can\'t NOT run the horse.

Al

[miff]

Al,

Most of the speeds seem somewhat rateable in the upcoming derby. With the roar of the crowd,jockeys chirping from the gate, and the long run to the first turn I feel the pace will be fast. Strangely, I am of the opinion that if all the speeds are strangled early, they\'ll do worse late.

Mike

[heatherk]

Has everyone forgot Alysheba?

[jbelfior]

The full gate and long run to the first turn almost guarantee a pace that is too quick for a 1 1/4 for 3yos in May. Great points made by several folks on here regarding who has demonstrated the ability to pass horses and either win or finish a close second or third. This is paramount in a race where several serious contenders who are used to getting the lead early, or comfortably stalking will have those circumstances taken away from them (see Eternal Prince, Friesan Fire, High Fly, .....you get the point).
I think horses like Ice Box and Stately Victor would require a complete meltdown. Looking for a midpack horse who has demonstrated the ability to pass and finish. I have cooled on SS as I\'m not convinced he can do that.

Good Luck,
Joe B.