Easy as 1-2-3?

[joekay]

Could it be as simple as this? Only 3 horses have Beyered 100 or better at 1 1/8.  Esky, Endy and SC.  Esky is my No.1, but I\'m a bit worried about Endy: he beat an undefeated colt, who is at least as good as any the others have beaten, in a race with legit fractions, will have 33 days to the Derby, his first work back was very good, lightly raced but never gone back, just picked up a top jock.  Hmmm.  Very interesting.

[richiebee]

Endy won the Sunland Derby, with I would presume a much faster TG # than MTB won
with in 09 (Whats a \"Beyer\" by the way?)

A big difference between the 2, not quantifiable by any TG or other #, is that,
for what its worth, MTB was Canadian 2YO champion.

I am about to make a statement devoid of any scientific background (again):
It is highly unlikely that the winner of the Sunland Derby will score at
Churchill 2 years in a row.

Not using up top, my third stone cold toss from the top spot along with the
2 Team Maker runners.

16 more to eliminate and I will have my Derby steed.

[Rick B.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am about to make a statement devoid of any
> scientific background (again):
> It is highly unlikely that the winner of the
> Sunland Derby will score at
> Churchill 2 years in a row.

Careful with that. How much experience / knowledge do we really have with animals
training at elevation (Sunland is ~ 4000 ft above sea level), then coming down
to the flatlands to run...possibly full of oxygen-rich blood?

[magicnight]

\"It is highly unlikely that the winner of the Sunland Derby will score at
Churchill 2 years in a row.\"

I\'d say it\'s impossible this year, Richie. Bird finished 4th in the \'09 Sunland.

[johnnyseychelles]

Highly unlikely yes, but for reasons different than yours.......Kelly Leak won the race last year......MTB didn\'t even hit the tri.  I think this horse is live.  And not just MTB live (waiting for a dream trip and meltdown).  I see this guy as a potential Real Quiet or Charismatic wakeup special.  Charismatic didn\'t do anything in the preps until Lexington.  Ditto for Real Quiet, until he ran (belated) second to stablemate Charlie in the SA derby.  Just wish he had more foundation for me to give my ENDORSEMENT.

Don\'t even get me started on Maker\'s pair.  Stately Victor also brings thoughts of Quiet and Charismatic.  He\'s not just a poly wonder either.  1st go at Saratoga tells me he had promise on the dirt.

If Esky gets beat, I\'ll take these 3 + Awesome Act over any 4 you choose.

[richiebee]

Sorry guys obviously my memory is shot.

Only one year ago. Is that short term memory loss or maybe some of my
recreational habits from the 70s catching up with me?

Amendatoria: The Sunland Derby will not produce the Derby winner for a second
straight year.

Without offending anyone, if Stately Victor has so much support in the Derby, why
was he 40/1 in a much weaker BG?

[Leamas57]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Endy won the Sunland Derby, with I would presume a
> much faster TG # than MTB won
> with in 09 (Whats a \"Beyer\" by the way?)
>
> A big difference between the 2, not quantifiable
> by any TG or other #, is that,
> for what its worth, MTB was Canadian 2YO
> champion.
>
> I am about to make a statement devoid of any
> scientific background (again):
> It is highly unlikely that the winner of the
> Sunland Derby will score at
> Churchill 2 years in a row.
>
> Not using up top, my third stone cold toss from
> the top spot along with the
> 2 Team Maker runners.
>
> 16 more to eliminate and I will have my Derby
> steed.


I would normally shy away from scribbling a rebuttal to our post-it laureate, but Endorsement doesn\'t know he ran at Sunland, though Conveyance knows he ran. And since when is a Canadian 2yr. old champ such a big deal--they breed \'em with caribou up there don\'t they?

But seriously, why can\'t this $450,000 son of DH and AP Indy win the derby after running 9 furlongs in 1.48 and 2/5 on a 11 bias track at altitude carrying 122 lbs? Bernardini won the Preakness in his fourth race (I know, only eleven-horse field) after winning the Withers (that after two maiden special weights). Beyers went 68, 90, 104, before 113.

This guy has a string of Beyers (sorry to commit this sacrilege, but it\'s all I have handy) of 52, 76, 78, 101.

I am not projecting a big upset, but he is among the last I would toss. I will have him on top in many bets.

Leamas