Lookin @ Lucky

[ROBERT49]

just curious if any of you horsemen think Baffert should be taking the blinkers off him. anybody hear if Baffert is thinking of doing it? seems like to much of a coincidence that his two roughly run races were with blinkers. I know he won the Rebel with them, and I know Baffert said Gomez gave him a horrible ride in the SA Derby. still, the horse is lucky to still be running as rough as those races were. I have to believe Baffert is thinking about it-but I\'m just guessing.

[Lost Cause]

ROBERT49 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> just curious if any of you horsemen think Baffert
> should be taking the blinkers off him. anybody
> hear if Baffert is thinking of doing it? seems
> like to much of a coincidence that his two roughly
> run races were with blinkers. I know he won the
> Rebel with them, and I know Baffert said Gomez
> gave him a horrible ride in the SA Derby. still,
> the horse is lucky to still be running as rough as
> those races were. I have to believe Baffert is
> thinking about it-but I\'m just guessing.


I\'m guessing you\'re thinking he would settle back further off the pace and make one run at the end steering clear of trouble during the early part of the running and hopefully not hit trouble late..Not a bad idea..considering the pace may be hot..

[alm]

Blinkers Off is a weakass move with any horse.  It means \'I was trying to correct something and it didn\'t work.\'  It means \'I am still trying to correct it.\'

This is an automatic TOSS for me as a bettor.  Always has been and I have never regretted throwing out a horse for this equipment change.

Goodbye LAL.

[Rich Curtis]

Alm,

  Blinkers off is an automatic toss? Have you seen any studies on this subject?

[flushedstraight]

Baffert\'s won 3 derbies, lost one by a nose, was 2nd in another, and had a few 3rds. I\'m starting to think that maybe the guy knows how to get them ready for the big dance, and questioning his tactics is not an angle to exploit. Lucky\'s starting to look like the 07 KD winner; 2 yr old champ returning short of form at 3 gutting out a close one on class alone and then a meaningless poly prep. If the Rebel is any indication, this guy could be a killer on dirt and I\'m projecting no slower than a neg 2 on derby day. Combine that with some ground saving by the master GG and a probable wide trip by the other and we could have a supreme battle royal assuming the other runs his race as well.

I\'m taking BB\'s comments after the SAD race as him having fun and throwing out disinfo at the same time:

“It was bad luck. It was a bad trip,\" Baffert said. \"You can’t be on the inside on this track. (Gomez) took him back and he was fighting him. It was horrendous; his ride was horrendous. It’s unfortunate. The horse is a good horse. That’s the thing about synthetic. They’re not going to go fast. Keep him up there. He’s so afraid to let this horse run early, and it’s a shame, because that’s not Garrett. I don’t know why. He threw an interception.”

Baffert said he could not say if he would replace Gomez. “I’m not going to talk about that right now,\" he said. \"I cannot believe he rode him that way. It’s ridiculous.”

Asked about the inquiry that followed, in which stewards made no change in the order of finish, Baffert said: “I didn’t really care. When I saw him on the rail, I said, ‘What is he doing?’ He must not have seen Jerry Bailey’s tape. We’re going to buy him some DVDs.”

This is pure entertainment from the master, poking fun at his teammate, you gotta love it as a fan. Maybe they\'ve always been planning and hoping for a rail trip at CD in the big (almost certain) drawn out field to get an additional edge. The SAD meant nothing to these guys. They\'ve been thinking triple crown since last year, and they may have the animal this time. This is the big problem with ESKY besides his miniature price. Even if he runs his race he could get beat by this very talented beast in poly disguise, who\'s actually been part of some real horse races. I\'d keep my eyes on the red & yellow the whole race no matter who I end up with on my tickets; I\'m certainly not going to count on Durkin spotting the winning move when it\'s happening.

[RICH]

Until Baffert picks post 17 with the 5th pick

[alm]

My life is my study.  

I am not saying the horse won\'t run OK, I\'m not saying the horse won\'t be on the ticket somewhere...but I bet straight, very rarely bet exotics...I can\'t remember ever being disappointed by tossing a blinkers-off horse.  Give it a little thought...put yourself in the trainer\'s shoes.  He\'s admitting a mistake and that\'s not good.

God knows I love Baffert in this race.  I just don\'t like the screwiness of this move.

[Rich Curtis]

Alm wrote:

  \"...I can\'t remember ever being disappointed by tossing a blinkers-off horse. Give it a little thought...put yourself in the trainer\'s shoes. He\'s admitting a mistake and that\'s not good\"

  This is another way of saying the trainer thinks removing the blinkers is likely to result in improvement. But really, why not check the stats to see if blinkers-off horses have developed a knack for winning races on days when you happen not to be playing? I believe there are stats right here on this site.

  Having said that, I don\'t like LAL either.

[sekrah]

Just scanned over a couple cards real quick and pulled off the 2009-2010 Blinkers off records per Bris:

Patrick Biancone - 16 starts, 19% win, 44% ITM
Carla Gaines - 15 starts, 27% win, 40% ITM
William Morey - 36 starts, 14% win, 47% ITM
Peter Walden - 15 starts, 27% win, 60% ITM
Bob Baffert - 50 starts, 20% win, 58% ITM  *Including Concorde Point in the 6th Race Wednesday Night*

Sea Hero won the 1993 Kentucky Derby with blinkers off after running his previous 6 races with them on.

From this year, American Lion tried Blinkers in the San Felipe.  They didn\'t work, they took them off for the Illinois Derby.

From last year, Advice won the Lexington with Blinkers Off.  General Quarters won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa with Blinkers Off.

You either have selective memory and are tossing out alot of winners or you are always getting a bite to eat when these blinkers off horses are going off.   Because blinkers-off horses aren\'t winning less than their fair share of races.

[alm]

I respect what you are suggesting, but it\'s a little more complicated.  For example, a new trainer might remove blinkers...it doesn\'t mean the same thing.  

Personally, I bet people, not horses.  The weakness of the move that I am suggesting has to do with a trainer admitting that his \'solution\' of adding blinkers failed to solve a problem he was seeing.  Whatever the problem was, it doesn\'t go away with this move.

As a result, I am betting against the trainer\'s confusion.  It doesn\'t matter whether it\'s Baffert or the man in the moon.

[TGJB]

Sekrah--(and this goes for PDub and everybody else)-- that post is fine right up to the personal comment at the end. Stick to comments on the subject, not the person, if you want the posts to stay up.

[TGJB]

This is a Thoro-Graph board. LAL looks NOTHING like Street Sense, who had run fast enough as a 2yo to win the Derby.

[sekrah]

Bob Baffert is not a new trainer.  He\'s one of the best in the business.  He knows how to win horse races.

Now I just demonstrated that horses with blinkers off win their fair share of races.  These great trainers who have horses running blinkers off are winning just as often as they would otherwise..  LAL won 3 Grade 1s without blinkers as a 2 year old.   He won the G2-Rebel with a horrible trip with blinkers.

Now do you seriously (and I mean SERIOUSLY) think LAL is a toss because Bob Baffert, one of the most successful Kentucky Derby trainers in this era, is taking blinkers off of LAL?

I\'m personally stunned because I think LAL may be an even better horse without blinkers and this move from Baffert actually boosts LAL in my rankings.  And I have alot of statistical evidence to back up that up.    There\'s only one horse in this field that has consistantly navigated large fields and pass by gobs of horses and that\'s LAL and with all due respect, to think that taking blinkers off is a negative move to a horse that is 6-5-1-0 without blinkers (3 G1 wins, 1 G2 win)... well, I\'ll just disagree before I get myself into any trouble.

[Ill-bred]

Completely agree with Sekrah.

Blinks off can be a good way to get a horse to relax/settle into stride and finish better.

Cashed on this angle with American Lion two weekends ago.

[slewzapper]

This horse has been the victim of an outside post/wide trip before (with an extremely slow pace), as well as trouble finding him between horses and on the inside.

Given his running style, the distribution of running styles of the field, and Gomez, his post position is less critical than most.

His issue will be placement entering the far turn, when several upfront will soon start backing up.

In the SAD, he lost 4-5 lengths when he took up. Given his competitive nature (despite his penchant for incidents, he has never spit the bit), he would have laid his body down trying to close the 1-2 lengths on the winner in the stretch, and that effort would suggest a flatter race next out - for both. Instead we\'re left with the same unknowns about how LAL can finish at 9F+ against top 3yos and how SC reacts to a horse getting to him in the stretch.