This is a humbling game...

[smithkent]

Following the board for the last couple of weeks with the Bluegrass and now the Lexington results.  Lots of good handicappers, but nobody with strong opinions in favor of the ultimate winners.  
Maybe some races can\'t be figured- 3 year olds on synthetic surfaces seem to make it impossible.

Hope the Ky Derby is decipherable.  I\'m hoping Eskendereya is the real deal-the numbers seem to back him as a real talent- going to put money on a Triple Crown shot this time around.

[jbelfior]

Too many variables with the Keenland polytrack. I\'m convinced that temperature, wind,and humidity play a huge role.

Biases can change from day to day, if not race to race. The game is tough enough, especially when the Pletcher stable (and the likes) start tinkering with the race day menu.

What happened to Catalano\'s horse in the Lexington? Perhaps the chef was off today.

I\'m just hoping everyone has to play by the rules in 2 weeks. Perhaps a mile and a quarter on a real surface will be the equalizer. Then we can tip our hats to the winning trainer for his horsemanship not for his ability to use the right vet.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Boscar Obarra]

Is not being able to \'figure it out\' something new?

 If it isn\'t, then where\'s the guy with ALL the money?

[magicnight]

Damn it, Boscar! I\'m trying to push this idiotic string out of the top ten. Would you please play along? (Though I concur wholeheartedly and otherwise always appreciate your posts).

[richiebee]

(With apologies to Magicnight for perpetuating the string).

Smithkent:

I seem to have missed your pre race selection in the Lexington.

The ROTW is supposed to be a learning tool based on TG methodology.

As such it would have been impolitic to say the following: \"Exhi does not figure
TG number-wise but Pletcher has won the Lexington the last 2 years, has a last 90
day TG stat that is otherworldly, might have a pace advantage and the colt is
going off at twice its morning line...\"

The fastest TG horses didn\'t fire (except for Bushwhacked, who as predicted went
off at 1/2 his generous morning line) or were not suited to the distance.

As to the chaos which you seem to be implying reigns in the Keeneland synthetic
3YO races, the two previous winners of the Blue Grass were Dominican and General
Quarters, each of whom had some support on the board pre race. Only Michael D was
savvy enough to predict this years bomb.

Pletcher has won the Lexington 3 straight years. In 08, I got beat out of large
multiple race wagers when Behindatthebar got by Baffert frontrunning longshot
Samba Rooster in the final strides. Last year Advice passed the entire field in
the last quarter mile to win at 15/1.

[richiebee]

TG Last 90 Days == TAP == Going into Derby

Year/Starts/Tops/Pairs/Off/X
10/165/37/30/19/14^*
09/172/29/27/26/17
08/154/28/23/24/25
07/71/35/28/24/13
06/155/26/31/21/22
05/180/19/34/21/26
04/123/26/28/20/26
------------
* As of 4/17/2010; all others from Derby graphs in TG archive.

Eskendereya will be faster going in than any Pletcher Derby entrant except for
Bandini, who freaked in the 05 Blue Grass (neg 3 TG) and pitched in a Derby
stinker 21 days later.

My point here is that that given Eskendereya\'s obvious talent, and the fact that
Pletcher\'s current 90 day roll is spectacular, if I take a negative position
against Eskie or any of the other TAP entrants, it will NOT be because of TAP\'s
previous misfires in the Derby.

[smithkent]

You guys take things so personally here!

I respect the opinions of this board, as they are folks who are very serious about handicapping a horserace.
My observations about the Blue Grass and Lexington results were relating to the difficulty of picking winners, even given the brightest and most studious opinions.

I still think mjellish made a great call when he picked Eskendereya for the Fountain of Youth.

I\'m backing Eskendereya because the  numbers show him to be clearly the best horse numberswise out of this years field.

Sure- Eskendereya may lose, but for my money I\'m convinced.

[jimbo66]

Richiebee,

Yeah, the ROTW is a teaching tool, let\'s drum that up again!  

I don\'t know how many undecipherable results have to happen in these keenland 3 year old preps for people to stop betting real money into those pools.  The Keenland and Delmar surfaces are the most unpredictable and erratic surfaces.  The Bluegrass is useless as a Derby prep.  

ON to nicer topics.  Have you picked which weekend(s) you will be at the Spa yet?

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

I think the Keeneland preps have been rendered irrelevant by their proximity to
the Derby as much as due to the synthetic surface.

It seems like modern age trainers need that five or six weeks to get their 3YOs
ready for top efforts and as such I would be surprised if we ever see another
Triple Crown winner, which is too bad because Racing could really use one.

I could imagine the outcry from some posters if the board had been around in 1982,
when Woody Stephens ran Conquistador Cielo back in the Belmont after winning the
Met Mile (and setting a track record) six days earlier.

As to Saratoga, I haven\'t looked closely at the schedule but am really worried
about the quality of Racing which will be held upstate this summer. Monmouth,
your old stomping grounds, is looking to host a premier meet and I anticipate
that they will have top notch barns from all parts of the country and will siphon
quality horses from the Spa. Also, the NY OTB bankruptcy looks very ominous for
NYRA; NYRA has very poor cash flow and it will only get poorer as NY OTB falls
further behind in their payments to NYRA.

The Diana and the Jim Dandy are being run on Saturday July 31. I guess I might
want to go up that weekend and let Forever Together beat me in the Diana for the
3rd straight year.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee,
>
> Yeah, the ROTW is a teaching tool, let\'s drum that
> up again!  
>
> I don\'t know how many undecipherable results have
> to happen in these keenland 3 year old preps for
> people to stop betting real money into those
> pools.  


Jim,

They\'ve run the Blue Grass 4 times now over the poly, and, on this forum, I singled Dominican ($18), singled Monba ($19.60), and went three deep to come up with Stately Victor. And Saturday\'s race was perfectly logical. I made a pace/trip mistake with the Pletcher horse and it cost me. That one doesn\'t wire the field, and I nail the race. Not the surface\'s fault, my fault.

And there are many out there who handicap the Kee poly much better than I. It can be had.

The Keeneland poly meets aren\'t going anywhere. This is some of the best racing in the world, and Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) has Kee ranked as the top race track, #1, when it comes to gambler\'s concerns (pool size, field size, etc).



> The Keenland and Delmar surfaces are the
> most unpredictable and erratic surfaces.  The
> Bluegrass is useless as a Derby prep.  


Not useless, but the Blue Grass certainly has become a lesser Derby prep. That is unfortunate.

> ON to nicer topics.  Have you picked which
> weekend(s) you will be at the Spa yet?


Maybe we should all meet up at Mth this year?

[jimbo66]

Michael,

I always respect your opinions on races and I read your post on Stately Victor before the race went off and again after the race happened.  I still don\'t see what you saw.  I am glad you hit it and you found a way to come up with it, but Stately Victor was and is a medicore horse.

Monba?  Has he run well since?  An inscrutable who doesn\'t win before or after the race is the profile to look for?

I\'d love to know who is hitting the Keenland Poly races regularly.  (turf is a different story).  I have been reading the redboard room daily and the poly races have been a disaster there too.

As for ranked #1 by HANA, that is interesting.  Don\'t know how they rank that.  I only have my unscientific ranking in that as a relatively serious gambler who has mostly friends that also fire hard into the pools, I don\'t know a single one of my 20 gambling friends that will bet any money into Keenland\'s poly races.  

YOu might be right about Monmouth, but I have to go Saratoga, even if the racing drops off!  It is tradition....

[Lost Cause]

Hey Jimbo..I\'m actually doing all right at Keeneland..Pools are really good and the quality of racing is good..
Couple of tips that I have been using that seem to really work..

-Bet against Dirt to Poly favorites, there\'s a lot of value in doing so and they seem to run bad a lot.

-Look for lone speed.  people seem to think speed is dead on the poly where i\'ve seen a lot of them go wire to wire at good odds.

-Play the Poly to Poly.  I think alot of bettors see TP and think they are inferior horses but they run really well as they are used to the surface..

[MonmouthGuy]

Do not have the numbers, but Gulfstream Turf to Poly has also seemed to be a decent angle this meet. Stately Victor was not the only jump up. Agree on dirt to poly favorites. There were a lot of them that didn\'t run a lick.

[jimbo66]

Thanks Lost,

Appreciate the tips.  

To be honest, I don\'t even like watching, let alone betting on poly races.  The stretch runs are strange in that they often remind me of harness racing at the meadlowlands as 6 or 7 horses spread out across the track in a swarm.  

But I will watch your angles!

Jim

[alm]

You had better also watch when Garrett Gomez shows up on a horse that doesn\'t quite have the numbers.  His agent is probably the best handicapper at the meet.