Prediction...Awesome Act will be the wise guy horse of this Derby

[covelj70]

Every non-sheet player that I know is talking up Awesome Act.

Wasn\'t fully cranked for the gotham, lost a shoe so last wasn\'t a true indication of his talent, will have pace to close into, etc.

He may go off as the 4th or 5th choice behind

Esk
SC
LAL
Ice Box

I don\'t like AA.  He could pair but I don\'t think he\'s likely to move forward and he will lose alot of ground with his running style so I don\'t think a 2 gets him a piece of this.

If we could get the 2 thru 4th choices out of the money, the exotics could pay even with Esk on top.

I am still leaning toward Super Saver, Dublin and Rule underneath but alot will depend on how they breeze over the next 10 days for me.

Now we only have to figure out who those horses might be.

[toppled]

Funny thing, I just posted my thoughts & I like AA to clunk up 2nd or 3rd behind Eskendereya because I think he\'ll be passing a bunch of horses tired of running after Esky after he pulls away from them in the stretch .

[SonicDonn]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If we could get the 2 thru 4th choices out of the
> money, the exotics could pay even with Esk on
> top.


I think there is a very good chance of this happening.

Good luck choosing the correct underneath horses.

[ajkreider]

Not sure about that.  SC apparently looked very good on the CD surface this weekend.

[big18741]

Not sure about wiseguy horse but there are three that figure to get overbet:

Sidney\'s Candy has an ugly looking sheet and the Candy Ride\'s aren\'t a lock to run better on dirt despite his work the other day.He figures to go off a strong 2nd choice and getting some serious love these next two weeks.Might go off closer to Esky than expected.Dirt freak that rates or up the track?

Endorsement\'s Sunland race didn\'t come back all that fast here and you have to factor in the Albarado wide.Nice horse but an awful lot of buzz.He could go off 4th choice.

Awesome Act.

[richiebee]

The wise guy colt worked 6f in 1:12.3 at CD this morning...

[Ill-bred]

I predict Endorsement is the wise guy horse.

[Funny Cide]

The one thing I\'ve noticed about the wise guy horse is that it never ends up being wise.  I like knowing who the wise guy horse is just to toss him off my ticket.

[sekrah]

Agree that Endorsement is quickly becoming the wiseguy horse from what I\'ve seen on various internet forums.  Bothersome as these horses rarely turn out so well.

[analizethis]

Anybody recall some \"wise guy\" horses from previous Derbies?

[sekrah]

From the best that I can remember..  Some years there are multiple wiseguy horses.

2009 - Chocolate Candy / Desert Party
2008 - Denis of Cork / Smooth Air
2007 - Any Given Saturday
2006 - Sweetnorthernsaint
2005 - Noble Causeway
2004 - Tapit
2003 - Ten Most Wanted (I think he was a Wise Guy horse in every race he was entered).
2002 - Saarland

[analizethis]

Thanks,

5th/15th, 3rd, 8th, 7th (fav), 14th, 9th, 9th and 10th.

The wise guys don\'t have a very good record.

[covelj70]

Wise guys horses haven\'t run well at all in recent history

I define the wise guy as the horse that the average handicapper uses in the race because they think they understand some angle that the novice who only bets the derby doesn\'t understand.

So, Awesome Act and the lost shoe in the Wood is a classic example.  The average capper thinks that somehow gives them the edge over the once a year guy that doesn\'t know about the lost shoe.

Friesan Fire last year is another example as the average capper knew that the horse had run well in the slop.

Point Determined was one of the wise guys in Barbaro\'s year

Ten Most Wanted is a great example.

[jbelfior]

Steppenwolfer.....Buddy Gil.....Greeley\'s Galaxy........

[Ill-bred]

I previously mentioned Endorsement, but today I see DRF has a big story on Awesome Act and the lost shoe in the Wood. This gives him serious wise guy cred.

We could be looking at co-wise guys this year.