Where does this group of three year olds rate

[analizethis]

Tough question to answer but I took a shot at computing an average for each of the last eight years of each field\'s top three year old number prior to their respective Derby.

                       
From best to worst with averages in (): (1) 2006 (4/5), (2) 2004 (1 2/5), (3) 2005 (1 5/8), (4) 2008 (1 8/9), (5) 2009 and 2010 tie (2), (7) 2007 (2 2/3) and ( 2003 (2 5/7).
                     
For 2010 I used the 20 top graded earners as a proxy for the starters and it will, of course, change.

This seems to say that this year\'s crop is middle to low in rank coming into the dance. In order to protect myself against significant skewing I also computed the averages without the high and low of each groups and the rankings are pretty consistent with the exception of the Big Brown  group (2008) which falls to 7th without his -3 1/2 contribution.

Thoughts.

Bob

[slewzapper]

Given the progressive drop in TG figures over time, you would expect the reverse of what you found.

Reasons? Synthetic surfaces, spotty improvement in drug testing, fewer preps, more rest going in.

Doesn\'t explain 2003, however. Having a few key players injured could also explain some differences.

[nyc1347]

In my opinion this crop has huge potential to be the best ever.   With LAL, Nobles Promise, SS getting only 2 preps theres no reason to think that they wouldnt pop a pretty nice effort on the dirt derby day.  With the potential of that as well as Rule, Ice Box and several other having plenty of rest and of course Eske\'s number power this is setting up to be a very unique derby where MANY of these horses can run their best (which are very fast numbers) and still lose.. overall though taking top efforts and everything included we might have to throw a dart at the wall to get the winner if Eske doesnt run well cause its going to be almost impossible to guess with soooo many more factors this year than ever.   Many trainers took similar approaches with horses this year especially Pletcher having %25 of the field or so... he has horses coming in with all types of angles (rest, short rest, new top horses, 3rd off layoff, etc).

Think he covered the roulette board good enough this year?  After Eske.. PROBABLY NOT.

[sekrah]

Agree completely on the quality of this crop.  I think that there are several horses (10 or more) in this group sitting on very big moves this spring and summer and we\'ll be hearing their names again and again down the road in G1 races.

[Leamas57]

Oh, Please, with \"best ever\" remark. Esky, maybe SC have potential star quality, but I don\'t see a phalanx of monsters here to the point where that kind of talk is merited. The usual speed suspects are there every year and unless they have this track really tightened up, as Lukas said in DRF (...It looks like they added a little more clay and made it a little more glib and firmer.), they will set the unsustainable pace and drop off like flies under a fogger.

Leamas

[nyc1347]

THAT talk is merited based on the comparison of the last several years in a short period of time running these monster negative numbers (less than 10 years or so).  I dont think its that far fetched to expect many of these 3 year olds this year to run in Breeders Cup races in many different categories and run great on different surfaces especially with an Interactif type horse who clearly loves the turf over dirt or poly.  Or other horses who may switch to sprinting or go a mile.  This crop along with Blind Luck has huge potential and all have been taken care of greatly.   I dont see any indication of breakdowns or huge negative numbers that would allow me to think any of these wouldnt keep going forward.   SO MANY are going forward and improving each race compared to these more recent years BUT in much more healthier steps with rest given.  How many injuries this year with horses in prep races with bigger contenders?  one?  Potential here is HUGE to me AND the BC will be run on Dirt so shipping to the poly and out west wont be an issue or a factor either to most of these horses as well.

[nyc1347]

and he may decide to add the double zero now..

http://www.ntra.com/content/display/news/NDU0MDE=

think he wants this derby win this year bad?

[Funny Cide]

This filly is a complete toss and reeks of desperation.  The only filly who has a chance is Blind Luck and I\'d not put her in the Derby either.  She\'s small and getting beat up isn\'t likely to help her in the future.

[mjellish]

I dunno.  If the Oaks were today Devil May Care would be my horse.  She just had a fantastic work in Florida.  I loved her last.  She is lightly raced, improving, has plenty of rest and is almost as fast as Blind Luck coming in.  If everything remains the same she is going to be my bet in the Oaks, provided she doesn\'t work herself into a lather before the race.

[richiebee]

NYC:

DANGER!

In the article Pletcher says the OWNER will make the final decision as to whether
the filly races in the Derby.

DANGER!

[covelj70]

Devil May Care is a half to Regal Ransom by Malibu Moon

Regal Ransom couldn\'t get the derby distance and he was by Distorted Humor.

Highly, highly doubtful that Devil May Care will even come close to getting a 1 1/4.

Hope they keep her against the ladies.

[Wrongly]

Jim

I wouldn\'t jump to that conclusion, granted distance was an issue with Regal Ransom but the sloppy track didn\'t help his cause at all.  Not that I would bet the filly anyway, I like your \"wise guy\" horse.

[jimbo66]

Assuming that the owner makes the logical decision and runs the horse in the Oaks,I have a different take on this.

Yeah, you want to believe that Pletcher has \"derby fever\" and wants as many horses in the race as possible because he is so desperate to win a Derby finally, you can believe that.

But I have not seen the man make too many \"desperate moves\" over the years.  He is pretty calculating.

Also, as somebody who bet both Bluegrass Cat and Invisible Ink, I am not as negative on Pletcher\'s derby \"successes\" as some others.

What I take from this is that a horse that already looked pretty damn good for the Oaks, is looking even stronger.  The horse was a monster last time in the Davona Dale, dusting a decent Amen Hallelujah who had run pretty fast.  As Mjellish points out, this horse is almost as fast as Blind Luck and has a tad more tactical speed, so is a little less likely to get a wide trip.  And not to contradict my earlier post about the california figures, but Blind Luck\'s last race is a bit of an anomaly and \"jump up\", in a 4-horse race.  She is a very bad favorite by my count.

The fact that Pletcher is not screaming at his owner to NOT enter in the Derby, makes me think this is the horse to beat in the Oaks.  MJ reporting on the big work last week adds to that opinion as well.  Looking forward to seeing a CD work.

[RICH]

Hey

What is most interesting is that poll to the right, over 7000 votes and 27% (the most) pick Rule as the KD winner.

[Flighted Iron]

Breeders\' Cup | Posted 10/30/2009, 6:45 pm
Devil May Care a two-turn beast
By David Grening



ELMONT, N.Y. - Todd Pletcher watched Devil May Care complete her final workout Friday morning for next Friday\'s $2 million Breeders\' Cup Juvenile Fillies, and the trainer had one wish.

\"I wish the Juvenile Fillies was a mile and three-quarters,\" Pletcher said