Jimbo-- Cal synth numbers, first results

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- We started running some studies. I\'ll have more indepth stuff in the seminar, but briefly, since 1/1/2008:

1-- Of horses that ran on synth in California and shipped elsewhere (another state) to run on synth (96 total), more went back in their next start than forward (35 to 28).

2-- Of those that ran next on dirt (560), more went forward than back (253 to 201).

3-- Most interestingly, the percentage of those that paired the number (meaning plus or minus one point) was MUCH higher when they ran back on synth. In other words, horses either preferred dirt or didn\'t like it, but not that many were the same on both surfaces. Considering a) that we have been breeding horses in this country to race on dirt for a long time and b) trainers are selecting which ones they want to run on dirt, it\'s not surprising that more (though not a crazy number more) of those shipping prefer dirt.

And this is aside from factoring in California having the toughest testing in the country.

[smalltimer]

So, 28 forward, 35 backward, and 33 even?

253 forward, 201 backward and 106 even?

[smalltimer]

disregard.  meant to delete that previous post

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

That is interesting stuff.  

What I am struggling with (and I guess others too) is differentiating between two scenarios of move ups or move downs in figures when horses go from synthetic to dirt or reverse.

1.  THis is due to preference for one surface over another

2.  My view that it \"seems\" to me that the overall figures are clumped together more on synthetics (like turf) and therefore the \"tops\" are slower on synthetics.  So, when good horses that have no preference for synthetic or dirt (equally talented) will \"move up\" when they go from synthetic to dirt (on TG figures more so than other figure makers).

If I think the scale is different for synthetics on TG (which I suspect, but certainly have no proof), then I am troubled on how to treat horses that move from synthetics to dirt, when I believe the horse may have equal talent on dirt.

Thanks for taking the time to gather the information as I am sure many of us customers are analyzing this situation and quite interested.  

Jim

[Wrongly]

JB

Curious about your decision making process on who might move up from synthetic to dirt.  Running style?  Pedigree?  Or simply percentages?

[mjellish]

Jimbo,

My suspicion is that the reason we see slower figures on synth has a lot to do with jockey riding as well.  In a general sense, synth racing seems to reward turn of foot more so than speed, much like turf.  The jock\'s know this and ride accordingly.  And like I\'ve said before, a horse can\'t close his last 1/4 in 21 and change to make up for 48 sec half.  

So I would contend it is both surface tendency and race riding that leads to slower figs.  We haven\'t seen a -5 on synthetic yet, have we?

[jimbo66]

MJ,

I have heard this theory before, and I don\'t disagree.

But, no matter what the reason is for the scale difference (if it exists), my point is that this makes it harder to assess top class runners coming from synthetic tracks to dirt tracks, when you expect a \"neutral\" surface affinity.

[Rich Curtis]

Midnight Lute ran a negative 5 on synthetic.

[jimbo66]

Yes Rich, the infamous Midnight Lute exception.

Let me ask a different/related question.

Do you really believe we have had no fast 3-year old derby contenders coming out of California since they went to synthetics?  (it is a coincidence?)

Every year, the best Cali horses look too slow on TG. (since synthetics came to be)

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:

> And this is aside from factoring in California
> having the toughest testing in the country.

Presumably, one way to evaluate that is to conduct similar studies from non-California synthetic tracks, though other variables might be at play.

[mjellish]

Guess I should have said -6.  Weren\'t they going the 3/4 in 107 or so that day?

[RICH]

so in other words, its a toatl crap shoot

[jbelfior]

Mike:

Great point. They can only come home so fast. Makes one wonder if Sidney\'s turn of foot will be compromised after chasing a :46 3/5.

Still wondering how slow paced Wood with average final time resulted in a 109 Beyer. I\'m sure it has nothing to do with hype.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

i

[smalltimer]

Jimbo,

The data has to be sorted by sprint and routes.  The move ups from dirt to synthetic in sprints are smaller than the move ups from dirt to synthetic in routes.  So depending on the actual number of synthetic sprint horses used in the study, and the actual number of synthetic route horses in that same study, it would begin to clarify a portion of the haziness in the figures.  Okay?

Secondly. The higher the quality of animal, the bigger the probable jump.  I can give you lots of examples to show this.  

If TG has the ability to go back and just separate the sprints from the routes the numbers will start to become more manageable and I think will spell more consistency and result in less guesswork.

I\'m using Brisnet for this example even though they don\'t take into account, weight, wind and ground loss.  But they are using the same parameters on all races, so at least I\'m comparing like types.

Bob Baffert\'s horses, Conveyance and LAL.

Conveyance, 1 mile synth SA in San Rafael   Brisnet Speed of 90;
Conveyane,  1 mile dirt OP in Southwest     Brisnet Speed of 102.  +12

LAL, 8.5 furlongs HOL in Cash Call          Brisnet Speed of 90;
LAL, 8.5 furlongs OP in Rebel               Brisnet Speed of 102.  +12

Last year Pioneer jumped from 9f at SA to 10 furlongs CD from 95 to 103
Last year Papa Clem jumped from 9f at OP to 10 furlongs CD from 100 to 102
Obviously, Pioneer a higher quality animal.  

Didn\'t take into account the trip or anything. They key is separating the sprints from the routes in the synthetic to dirt races.

Final point before I offer other examples that you can accept or reject.
I think a crucial factor in the move ups from sythetic to dirt is the horses shipped from the So Cal circuit are VERY GOOD HORSES who are being shipped with the intention of winning.
I\'m convinced the more superior the animal the bigger the probable jump.  I\'d cite your horse IWR as an example.  Huge jump up in the Gotham...from 95 at 8.5f on synthetic to 113 at 8.5f on inner dirt.  We know this was a helluva runner.  I\'m not even gonna mention you know who.

FWIW guys.

[Rich Curtis]

Smalltimer wrote:

\"Last year Pioneer jumped from 9f at SA to 10 furlongs CD from 95 to 103
Last year Papa Clem jumped from 9f at OP to 10 furlongs CD from 100 to 102
Obviously, Pioneer a higher quality animal.\"

  What is your point in regard to the OP-to-CD difference?