Not For Nuthin...

[MO]

I think Dublin is going to be overbet and will be about 9-1 post time. I\'m not sold on him loving Churchill Downs.

[sekrah]

9-1.  LMAO.  Hope that was a joke.

[MO]

No and I was the morning line handicapper at Delaware Park for 2 years.

[Funny Cide]

It\'s Lukas.  If the horse wins or hits the board, everyone will wonder how they didn\'t see it - it was Lukas.

[jbelfior]

Mo:

That\'s fine but 20 horses and a 2-1 favorite does not translate to 9-1 for Dublin who figures to be no better than 5th choice.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

Dublin, 0 for his last 5 with only 1 graded stakes win as a 2 year old, won\'t pay any less than 20-1.  You can write that fact down on a check, take it to the bank, and cash it.    In the final future pool late March, they opened him at 15-1, and he closed at 18-1, that was before he crapped all over the Oaklawn frontstretch.  That was before several horses drastically improved their resume (Esky, Sidney, Endorsement, and others).  I would just love to see another example of a horse that closed at around 18-1 in the final futures pool, diminished his resume in his final prep, and then went off at cheaper than 10-1 in the Derby.

Even sportsbooks whose customers are semi-knowledgable in the sport and recognize some of Dublin\'s underlying value and potential are carrying 20-1 on the horse.   There is absolutely nothing squarish about Dublin past performances that would induce public wagering on him in the biggest public betting race in the year.

Horses without wins don\'t get bet by the public in the Kentucky Derby!

Horses 0 for their last 5 heading into the Kentucky Derby (since 2005)

2005 - Giacomo (5-0-2-2), 50-1
2006 - None
2007 - Liquidity (5-0-2-1), 40-1
2008 - None
2009 - West Side Bernie (5-0-2-1), 32-1
2009 - Join In The Dance (5-0-1-1), 51-1
2009 - Atomic Rain (5-0-2-1), 55-1
2009 - Flying Private (5-0-3-0), 46-1


Hell, lets look at horses with 1 win out of their last 5 heading into the Derby.

2005 - Wilko (5-1-0-3), 21-1
2005 - Closing Argument (5-1-2-2), 71-1,
2006 - Jazil (5-1-3-0), 24-1
2006 - Deputy Glitters (5-1-1-0), 60-1
2006 - Seaside Retreat (5-1-1-1), 52-1
2006 - Storm Treasure (5-1-3-0), 51-1
2006 - Flashy Bull (5-1-1-1) 43-1
2007 - Sedgefield (5-1-3-0), 58-1
2007 - Zanjero (5-1-1-3), 36-1
2007 - Storm in May (5-1-1-2), 27-1
2007 - Imawildandcrazyguy (5-1-1-0), 28-1
2007 - Sam P. (5-1-2-1), 43-1
2007 - Tiago (4-1-1-1) 14-1
2008 - Anak Nakal (5-1-1-0), 53-1
2008 - Big Truck (5-1-1-0), 28-1
2008 - Z Humor (5-1-0-1), 63-1
2009 - Mr. Hot Stuff (5-1-0-3), 28-1
2009 - Advice (5-1-1-1), 49-1
2009 - Nowhere To Hide (5-1-0-1), 45-1
2009 - Summer Bird (3-1-0-1), 43-1


Only Tiago broke 20-1 out of the 1-time winners, and he was the toast of the west coast fresh off his SA Derby win.

Dublin reminds me of Wilko who went off at 21-1.  Big 2-year old win followed up by measley ITM prep finishes.


My final argument:  13 horses have a better Beyer figure than Dublin\'s best of 97.  In the public eye, this horse is a complete and total stiff.


23 to 1.

[mjellish]

He will take money simply because of the Lukas factor. I figure him to be an underlay because of that based on what I believe his actual chances to win this thing are going to be. He\'ll also probably be an underlay in the exotics as well because on paper he also looks to have a decent shot to hit the board.

[sekrah]

What Lukas factor?  His last 5 Derby starts.

2009 - Flying Private, 46-1
2005 - Going Wild, 59-1
2003 - Ten Cents A Shine, 37-1
2003 - Scrimshaw, 16.50-1 (Morning Line of 15-1, coming off a strong Lexington win [99 beyer] over Domestic Dispute.  He also had a 104 beyer as a 2-year old.  This was also a 16-horse field.)
2002 - Proud Citizen, 23-1


Yea. Lukas horses gets hammered.  Those 4 wins in his last 145 graded stakes really stands out on the page.   Horses that don\'t win, don\'t get bet.  There\'s 19 other horses in the race, many with a series of bigtime graded stakes wins coming into the race but the public is going to throw money at the horse that doesn\'t win?  It doesn\'t happen that way.   Dean\'s Kitten looks better to Joe Q. Public than Dublin.

[mjellish]

Trust me.  The guy has won a few derbies, people will be talking about him and dublin will get bet more than he should.

[MO]

I hope you are right.

[albany]

I like this 0 for 5 angle. Great ROI!

[jimbo66]

MO,

If he goes off at 9-1 I\'ll eat the TG sheets for the Derby.......

That is ridiculous.  

MJ,

The \"Lukas angle\" is older than the dosage angle and AT BEST is worth a tick or two.  So,maybe he goes off at 17 or 18 to 1, instead of 22-1 or 23-1.  Nowhere near 9-1.  Yeah, I could see him getting bet into the 2nd, 3rd and 4th slots of th exotics, because the horse does seem to look like he could be \"in the mix\" for minor spoils.  And if he ever got a trip, I could see him in the Super.

[sekrah]

Evidence?

I completely, 10,000% disagree and just showed you my proof why, I just demonstrated, the best Lukas Derby horse in his last 5 starts actually rose from the morning line and Scrimshaw had a better 3yo resume in a much smaller field.  Dublin will be 20-1 ML, EASY and his odds will rise from that.   I clearly showed that there is no large public mob hammering Lukas\' horses anymore.  But we\'re all just suppose to just \"trust you\" that it\'s so.  So for the record please, what odds do you believe he will go off at?

[mjellish]

He may be 20-1 to win.  But in my opinion that is still an underlay.  To my eye he looks like a sucker horse.  He should have absolutely blown by LOD in the ARK derby.  He got the perfefct set up.  He keeps getting wide trips.  He just never seems to get there.  So I more or less don\'t give him any chance to win, but that\'s just me.  

That being said, he is fast enough to be competetive and has a decent shot to hit the board IMO.

[sekrah]

He\'ll be 20 to 25-1 because of his 2yo and winter hype, not because of the trainer

He\'s a splitting image of Wilko who won the BC Juvy, got alot of Derby hype as this big Euro invader and didn\'t do anything in his preps, he went off at 21-1, but atleast you only had to go back 4 races to find his win.

You have to go back 6 races to find Dublin\'s win.   Nobody is betting this horse and I may be getting him too much credit and with all due respect to the Delaware Park morning line handicapper, I wouldn\'t be shocked to see him climb past 25-1 and go off closer to 30-1.