Eskendereya Out

[BitPlayer]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112471.html

[sekrah]

Alright, no more posts from the National Enquirer.  This is getting ridiculous now.  Don\'t you know those clippings don\'t mean anything?

Actually, I am furious at this news.  An easy, logical toss is now out.   Looking At Lucky  (the most likely winner regardless if Esky ran), will be what, 3-1 now?

[SonicDonn]

Stunning news.

I was betting 10k on ESK at 5/2 or over.


Derby is now wide open.

[Michael D.]

Horrible news for the sport. We badly need great runners like Esky.

Though my pool 2 and 3 wagers on Super Saver just gained some value.

Odds change for all the runners obviously, but the stalker/closer types like LAL, Ice Box, AA, Mission Impaz, and Dublin might take the biggest hit. You\'ll still get a big price on the speedballs. Jackson Bend will also gain momentum, as he has always had a good following, but there was no way he could have turned the tables on a healthy Esky.

[sekrah]

3-1: Sidney\'s Candy, Looking at Lucky (could climb to 7/2)
8-1: Ice Box, Endorsement
12-1: Rule, Conveyance, Awesome Act
15-1: Super Saver, Jackson Bend, Line of David, Dublin (I still think he climbs to 20-1)
20-1: American Lion,

[MonmouthGuy]

Agree. I think this race is now much more likely to be won by a horse that is on or pressing the front end.

[MO]

Well, someboby has to be a false favorite/sucker horse............

I\'m on record now. Super Saver wins the derby.

[streetbull]

Eskendereya was a strong toss for (imho) this race with his weak internal fractions exerted in his last two races.   Strong performances at a mile and an eighth are not strong indications that a horse can get the Derby distance. Holy Bull, Bellamy Road, Indian Charlie are some examples.( Too much early energy exertions)  The Derby is won by a horse who can show somewhere in his two year old routes or in one of his three year performance line where he can exert a strong pace fractions and carry it through till the end of the race  ( Silver Charm and Winning Colors in the Santa Anita Derby) or exert a strong hidden fraction move with a strong last fraction. ( Funny Cide and Fug. Pegasus in the Wood)

Endorsement seems similar to Charismatic where he developed late prior to the Derby in the Lexington.  Looking at Lucky ran huge in the Rebel as did Dublin in his mile race 3 races back where he made a huge move from far back from the early pace.  The only negatives are his antics in his most recent workouts in the morning.

Prady O\'Prado ran a huge turf race two races back but it was on turf and his Blue Grass was uninspiring. Besides his energy expenditures are early even though the fractions were fast with the final time in 1:45 and change for a mile and an eighth on turf.

Sidney\'s Candy is a strong sustained front runner but will be challenge early in the Derby  and might be part of the early pace casualty.  Sidney\'s Candy will be an awesome turf monster later on in the year or next year with his ability to dictate a moderate pace and kick home with his strong kick. I see him winning some Grade 1 Turf races up to a mile and a half.

As for Pletcher, I really thought that this year was going to be his year to finally break through.  He still might surprise us.  One of these years, Pletcher might have 15 of the top 20 earnings qualifiers.

[richiebee]

Like SS\'s 2YO 2 turn SW over CD.

Ranking Team TAP post Eskendereya:

(1) Mission Imp: (4²) Like his La. Derby visually, like his pedigree
(I am not going to weigh so much the factor that ONE of his siblings--his best
one--was a one dimensional sprinter).

(2) Devil May Care (0²). Supposedly shown competitiveness in workouts
with quality males. Gets the weight. On the negative side as a novelty (filly)
she will get crushed in the win pool, no?

(3) Super Saver (2¹). See above.

(4) Rule: (1) Looked great dominating questionable foes at Delta/Tampa, to me
exposed as a cheaper, one dimensional speed type when pitched against better
at GP.

(5) Discreetly Mine: (3²). Not sure that he goes, waits for shorter
Preakness field?

(6) Interactif: (1³ turf) Not sure that he goes. Another turf talent
for the Wertheimer freres, who also have West Ocean and the synthetic loving Exhi.

The current most likely scenario from this poster:

Conveyance and Sidney a frantic 2 horse duel (and if you want to argue that
Convey is not a rabbit here, well, whatever).

3 high profile runners, Rule, Am Lion and Line of David, will be relegated to
chasing the top two. Borel may or may not gun SS, based on SS\'s PP.

The next group would arguably include Mission I, Devil,Dublin, Awesome Act,
Lookin at Lucky, and Super Saver. I think the winner comes from this group,
pending PP draw. These will be the runners on the horizontal spread tickets.

The two deep closers who would benefit from extreme pace heat and chaos to the
fore would be Ice Box and Deans Kitten, who should be huge number, having been
well beaten (33+ lengths) in his only dirt try.

The scratch of Eskie made this a very evenly matched race, TG wise

[smalltimer]

richie,

Nice post.  I\'ll reserved judgment till the posts are drawn, but I see no way Sidney will be in the top 2 on the backside, (just my opinion).  

All things equal getting out of the gate clean, I\'m seeing Sidney no better than 4th and possibly 5th or 6th behind Rule, Conveyance, Super Saver, David, maybe even Mission if the track is not wet.  I could be wrong, but it appears they are all just quicker than him.  As he\'s moved into the routes, his early speed has dimished because its been working on synthetic, but he was really quick in his first 2 sprint starts at age 2.

I can\'t imagine Borel not having SS on the engine at least initially, hell, if the other early speed types get caught up leaving the gate or draw terrible posts, he could inherit the lead even though he isn\'t the best gate horse.  I\'m thinking all this speed comes tumbling down in the early part of the stretch, with Sidney the horse likely to inherit the lead, assuming Talamo has been able to get him to relax. Really looks like a fun race to handicap once the posts are drawn.
Have a great one

[jack72906]

Reported on HRTV this am. The connections will decide on Rule\'s status for the derby over the next couple of days.

[jbelfior]

makes one wonder about our good friend Todd.

Don\'t forget ...he\'s a Lukas disciple.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MO]

Works for me if he\'s out.

[jack72906]

I guess I\'d like to see him stay in the race. He\'d probably take a little money and he\'s a complete toss IMO.

[sekrah]

I hope he\'s out because I\'m scared of him but would like to thin out my underneaths.