Re-Handicapping the Derby

[jimbo66]

After about 12 hours of \"sulking\" over the loss of Eskendereya from the race, I decided to \"re-handicap\" the race about midnight last night. (too much caffeine, couldn\'t sleep).

The first question I have to ask is \"who is already fast enough to win, if they run their best\"?  I am looking for horses that have 1 or faster.  I can\'t see the Derby being won with a \"2\", even though the field is now slowish.  Here is the answer to that question (Counting all horses that have 1 and a fraction):

Lookin at Lucky
Noble\'s Promise
American Lion
Ice Box
Stately Victor
Dublin
Jackson Bend
Devil May Care

I am going to adjust this list now by adding in any horse that has maybe not run fast enough yet, but fits two criteria:  1) I am expecting the horse to run a new top AND 2) They are a closer that will benefit from what I expect to be a demanding pace.

Awesome Act
Setsuko

Now, I am going to \"weed out\" the pretenders from the list:

Tossing:

Jackson Bend - likely to be too close to the hot pace and hasn\'t gotten back to his 2 year old top.

Noble\'s Promise - Just not convinced he wants the distance and another that needs to at least track the pace to run his best.

American Lion - A reluctant \"pace\" toss.  As a son of Tiznow, he has a right to relish both the dirt and distance.  But before the Illinois Derby I had a view he would wire that field because it was paceless and then flop in the Derby.  Going to stick with him as a pace casualty.

Ice Box - Big jump up in the Florida Derby.  He gets time, but the form of that race has not been flattered with several lousy races by Pleasant Prince.  I am expecting bounce.

STately Victor - I am not betting on a keenland polytrack \"jump up\".  Forget him.

Dublin - I guess I will use him \"underneath\" but the lousy stretch run in the Arkansas Derby, followed up by questionable works at CD, make him \"un-keyable\" to me.

Setsuko - I think he is an interesting \"suck up\" underneath horse for the Super, but not fast enough to be a key.

Lookin at Lucky - He will be an underlay on the board IMO as he is a plodder/grinder IMO without either true tactical speed or an acceleration in the stretch.  As the favorite, I can\'t key him, but will use underneath just because a plodder is likely an OK thing to be in this race filled with \"run and gun\" speed.

That leaves two horses left to choose from for my key.  Awesome Act and Devil May Care.  I really liked Awesome Act to be my key to finish underneath Eskendereya before the Esky scratch and I think this horse will run a new top and Leparoux at CD is a good thing.  But it comes to one point differentiating these two horses.  DMC is about 3 points faster (weight adjusted), coming into the race.  And since I expect them to be similar odds (maybe 10-1), that makes the filly the key for me.  I know it is tough to eliminate races from a horse\'s resume when looking at their form and pattern, but I am willing to put a line through both the Pro-Ride race in the BC and the 1st time out this year, where the filly blew a gasket behind the gate.  If you do that, you have a filly that ran an \"8\" 1st time out, then improved to a \"4\" 2nd time out.  Then comes back and runs a \"0\" this year (which becomes negative 1 when you adjust for the fact that she gets 5 lbs in the derby).  She gets 6 weeks into the Derby and reportedly has been working well at the track.  She figures to be off the hot pace and therefore has the right profile for the race this year IMO.  I am not a breeding expert, but the connections think she wants to run all day, so I will buy that.

10-1 is about the right price for me to \"buy\" her.

Jim

[alm]

Did I miss something?  Did you leave Sydney\'s Candy off your list because he has been withdrawn?  Or are you assuming that Lookin at Lucky and Setsuko, whom he buried, are more likely to jump up on the dirt?

Given how Sadler\'s poly horses have beaten almost everything in sight, going to the dirt, mightn\'t you give SC a mention before you throw him out?

[MonmouthGuy]

I think he is implying that he didn\'t use Sidney\'s Candy, because he hasn\'t run fast enough to win yet, with a \"3\" as his top. Same reasoning excludes Super Saver. He isn\'t willing to bet on a jump up for his key horse.  Not saying I completely agree with him, but that reasoning would have given you the super in 2008.  Remembering that year, I think Jimbo is still regretting (and perhaps overcompensating for) his toss of Eight Belles in a race that he handicapped superbly otherwise.

[jimbo66]

Alm,

I guess I am being a hypocrite with Sydney\'s Candy.  I said I am looking for horses that have run a \"1\" or faster.  Sydney\'s Candy\'s top is a \"3\".  I am saying \"hypocrite\" because I don\'t think TGJB is even close to being right about SC\'s last 3 races, but that is a whole different discussion (which we have all covered before).

But Sydney\'s Candy is the 2nd favorite and has gone \"wire to wire\" to win his last 3 races.  I don\'t believe he gets the lead and I am not convinced the horse can rate.  If he was 10-1 or higher, I would take the chance that the dirt doesn\'t hurt him AND that he can rate.  (breeding leans to synth, with CAndy Ride as the sire).

I don\'t like Lookin at Lucky, but the fact is that his 0 at Oaklawn makes him a contender.

Setsuko is my 35-1 \"suck up\" for the vertical wagers.

As somebody who has \"bet out\" on Sydney\'s CAndy the last two races, I now have to reluctantly toss him at 6-1, as the surface and pace scenario are both factors that make him an underlay IMO.

[MonmouthGuy]

Jimbo. Do you think Setsuko gets in?

[jimbo66]

Monmouth,

Yep, you got it.

I only looked at horses to run a new top who I believe would be \"off the pace\" as I believe that expecting any frontrunner to run a new top at 1 1/4 in a race with what is likely to be a ridiculous early pace is too much to ask.  (Which is why I am OK to assume \"suck up\" closer Setsuko will run new top).

Now, if somebody clears and 2 or 3 speeds don\'t get out of the gate, then I likely lose my bet.  But I am OK to take that risk.  Looks to me like you want to be at least 6 to 8 lengths off this pace this year.  (similar to what Richie B wrote the other day)

Yeah, Eight Belles.  Maybe a good toss at 3-5 in the Oaks, but not so bright at 10-1 in the Derby.  Sometimes my stupidity knows no bounds, just ask my wife....

Jim

[jimbo66]

I thought he got in with Interactif and Rule both being out, but if not, then I screwed up.

[MonmouthGuy]

I think Make Music for Me, Pleasant Prince and Exhi are the next three in line.  Have no idea whether their connections intend to run, hence my question.  I agree that Setsuko is a use in the bottom half of exotics if he earns in.



http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2010/earnings.html

[alm]

Thanks for the post...I get it and appreciate your thinking.

However, I bet people not horses (an assinine statement on the surface, I admit, but I bet a lot of winners thinking this way) and I can\'t get past what Sadler has done in the past few weeks.  And it\'s also hard to get past the horse\'s 6f workout at CD.

If he jumps up as much as Line of David and Hurricane Ike this horse doesn\'t have to rate much to stalk and then outrun this field.

[Wrongly]

Jackson Bend gets in with Rule going out and then Backtalk gets in if Interactif doesn\'t go.  Next in Line Make Music for me and Pleasant Prince after finishing 3rd this past weekend.  Next in line are A Little Warm and Setsuko.  I would use Setsuko if he got into the race but it doesn\'t look like that will happen.

[RICH]

Jimbo

I think your beat already by not including Super Saver somewhere, this horse has a nice line, loves CD, has Borel, 3rd off the layoff, and his pace figs look great, can\'t see him out of top three, otherwise good luck

[big18741]

The lousy races by Pleasant Prince following the Fla Derby were predictable on short rest off a five point jump.

Ramsey had Derby fever and they chased some earnings.I wouldn\'t downgrade Ice Box based on the BG and Derby Trial results of PP.

[jimbo66]

Rich,

Look me up on the board after the race!  Getting beat won\'t surprise me (it is annual derby day occurence), but I don\'t think it will be super saver that does it.

He is my \"poster child\" for handicapping with just figures and patterns, without paying attention to other racing factors.

He couldn\'t pass Line of David (who has a 1% chance to win the Derby) and he is going to beat the rest of these?  (almost all of whom are better than Line of David.

No thanks.

[sekrah]

Mine That Bird couldn\'t pass a handful of Sunland Park horses.
Street Sense couldn\'t get past Dominican in the Bluegrass.
Giacomo had nothing but a maiden special weight win on his record.


Super Saver not getting past Line of David is a pretty silly reason to completely toss a horse that has shown he\'s fast enough to win the race.   Is it not just possible, just a tiny bit possible that Super Saver didn\'t care for the Oaklawn surface?   He\'s not the first horse in the world to dislike a track.

Calvin Borel is a genius at getting his horses to relax and store energy during the race.  Horses can feel a nervous/panicking jockey on his back and horses won\'t relax.  I\'ll take him over a young Joe Talamo, or the countless veteran riders who\'ve failed to win this race.  This decade he\'s outperformed the odds on every Derby mount he\'s had.  He won this race last year on a horse that NO OTHER JOCKEY ON THE TRACK could of won with.   This year he has real horse underneath him.  

Leaving this horse off your tickets is a suicide mission.  It\'s a very easy decision for me to have him as one of my keys.

[Halo Fire]

Super Savor not getting past Line of David? No Sekrah, he WAS passed Line of David and allowed that one to come back. Didn\'t care for the surface? SS was traveling comfortably through a perfect trip. Certainly didn\'t appear he was climbing or bearing in/out and he ran the turns like a Porsche.

I thought you like Endorsement anyway?