Re-Handicapping the Derby

[TGJB]

Bike races are all \"pace\" races, I would think, which is a different situation. With horses they use all their energy and all travel the same distance on the flat and the \"pitch\". The final time for each will be equally affected.

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Who makes better figures for the motocross tour, you or Rags?

[TGJB]

You think you are kidding, but I just got off the phone with a guy that wanted to know if we could help him buy mares to breed to a quarter horse stallion.

[alm]

Do you remember \'Ussery\'s Alley\' at Aqueduct in the 60s?  Those horses weren\'t running the same speed when they came down off that hill.

[TGJB]

Whatever the effects were, in that case, some of the horses were coming off the hill, and some were not.

[shanahan]

Alm - the \"sore behind\" is definitely being talked about on the radio for sure...but then the next guy says he\'s never seen Baffert so relaxed and confident.  Records are made to be broken.

[alm]

Good point...that\'s what made Ussery so great...find an advantage and hammer it.

[sekrah]

He spit the bit off a 3 1/2 month layoff.  Oh No.  Toss him.

[sekrah]

Mine That Bird couldn\'t pass anybody at Sunland Park.
Giacomo couldn\'t pass anyone in the stretch prior to the Derby.
Funny Cide didn\'t pass anyone in his 3 yo preps.
War Emblem never passed anyone (and I guess he didn\'t have to in the Derby either, but he did in the Preakness.)
Real Quiet looked like a horse that couldn\'t pass anyone in his preps.

If Borel rates Super Saver off the leaders, he wins this race going away.  At 15 or 20-1, excellent value betting on Mr. Churchill to do just that.

[alm]

You\'re handicapping last year\'s Derby...it\'s over.  

Calvin has had a great run, but there have been others who won a couple of Derbies in a few years, but never won again.  

Find another story line...

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Stop drinking during the work day.

Your posts are making less and less sense as the thread continues.

You like Super Saver.  He has competitive figures and may like the track.  YOu will be well paid if he wins.  But He has nothing in comparison with Giacomo, Funny Cide, Mine that Bird, War Emblem, or Real Quiet.

[Uncle Buck]

Great analysis by Jimbo. Haven\'t had any time until now to handicap much of anything this spring. Eagerly awaiting tomorrow\'s seminar. Meantime - In looking at this bunch, I\'ve deduced that the only possible win cadidates are those who have the natural desire to win a horse race and those that are bred for the 10f. I\'m not playing anyone for the top two slots that has less than three wins in their brief career. Here\'s the short list of potential winners based on the \"who likes to win races\" theory. Here\'s the short list:

*L @ Lucky - 6 for 8 life
*Sidney\'s Candy - 4 for 6 life
*Jackson Bend - 5 for 9 life
Conveyeance - 4 for 5 life (probably won\'t make the distance but might hang on for 3rd or 4th at big odds)

I beleive Sid, Jackson Bend or LAL will be the most likely winner of this year\'s race and will play it accordingly.

Underneath my main three (and on top in small savers) on all my tix will include:
Conveyeance
Ice Box
DMC (f)
American Lion
Endorsement
Dublin
Mission Impazible
Super Saver

$20 exacta 123/1234567891011 = $600
$1 Trifecta 123/1234567891011/1234567891011 = $270
$1 Supe 123/123/1234567891011/1234567891011 = $432

[Sandreadis]

Jeremy  Nosada answering a question BEFORE the Wood Memorial.



Stumes: Preparing your horse for the Kentucky Derby or any dirt race, is the horse being trained differently? And like he was in England before the Gotham, is he trained differently than you would normally train a European grass horse?

 

Jeremy Noseda: Yeah, I mean now when we\'ve gone to - you know since we\'ve been at Belmont you know we\'re training him like an American horse which I\'m going to be very honest with you, I don\'t feel quite as comfortable with that as I do training here back at Newmarket. But you know that\'s what we\'ve got to do you know and that\'s what we\'ve got to do if we\'re going to arrive in Kentucky. You know being very frank with you though is an element after the Gotham where you know I stood there you know two hours after the race and thought to myself thought would I love to be able to take him back to Newmarket and then get him ready for the Kentucky Derby in Newmarket. But that isn\'t the case and you know we\'ve had our changes training like you know it\'s only a subtle difference but he\'s training as an American horse would train now. It seems to be suiting him. My query going in to this race on Saturday is that there could be an element with, you know, the performance he put up in the Gotham which is most likely a lifetime better performance coming off of break. You know, the traveling, the change of scenery, there\'s a little question in my mind. You know he is a possibility to bounce on Saturday, you know I\'m prepared for that. I hope he doesn\'t regress too much off his last performance. You know, the other thing which is you know I\'ve been careful with the traveling and with that first run, I have taken it quite easy with him since the Gotham and with the rain arriving this week in New York. And you know missing my final piece of work most probably because of the - you know the sloppy track there, you know we could turn up on Saturday maybe being - maybe just lacking that edge of fits we had in the Gotham. But if that\'s the case you know as long as he runs well in the Wood, big day lies ahead on the first Saturday in May so we\'ll take it from there and see how we go.

[jbrown007]

Hey Jimbo, new over here at thorograph forum. Probably some of the most insightful stuff I have seen in a while. I am pretty much on the same stuff you are but I will be playing Lookin at lucky ATB because I think I will get 4-1 and I think he is going to run either a 0 or a - number. The one thing I tend to agree with a few other\'s is super saver. I know everyone is hating on the fact that he couldn\'t get past Line of David but he really had a few excuses. 1) Line of David got loose on the lead and was really able to slow down the race from the 6 furlong pole to the mile pole (1:10 - 1:36). I believe this allowed him to save enough to withstand super saver. I also believe Oaklawn is a very tough place to catch a loose horse on the lead. 2)This was pretty much the first time super saver was asked to rate. Yeah maybe that is not a big deal but I believe any change for a horse is asking a lot. Just like I don\'t believe Sidney will be able to rate in a 20 horse field with dirt/mud getting kicked in his face for the first time. It\'s not the place to try new things. 3) finally the horse just loves CD. he ran his top as a 2yo here and now he is 3rd off the cycle heading to the place he loves. I know third of the cycle doesn\'t mean as much with todd pletcher but just maybe this horse will make the appropriate progression.

-I really don\'t believe he will win this thing but he still makes my top 3. I think he will get a great trip and he is proven to love the track. Hopefully Borel can hold him back long enough for the tired horses to drift out on that last turn and sneak up the rail. My current top 3 are LAL, Awesome, Super Saver with Devil may care sitting on the outside.

[ROBERT49]

I too like LAL-as I said earlier, being on dirt, no blinkers and the added distance of the derby spell a top to me. as for SS, I\'m only considering him for 3rd or 4th at best. this horse has not passed another horse in his last 5 races. hard to see him finishing any better saturday. where do you think he will be after a mile? that\'s probably the position he\'ll finish in. my plays with LAL will be ICE and ENDO for 2nd, with a bigger bunch for 3rd and 4th. good luck to all.