Re-Handicapping the Derby

[jbrown007]

I too question the removal of blinkers. I remember last year he would shut down after getting to the lead which is why baffert put on the hood. I also can understand why most people think Super Saver will not win. I guess what I see in the horse is an ideal trip over a track he loves. What this calculates to me is a good chance to repeat his prior three performances. This field is less then stellar and a lot of the better horses will be compromised by either trying to change their styles/being on the dirt for the first time/pace situation and I think SS was pretty relaxed last race. I think it is very likely he runs another 2 and a small possibility he improves to a 0-1. Even a 2 could possibly win this race because horses I like such as AA and Lookin could be compromised by wide trips and a lot of ground to make up. We could see a race where they both run 0 or -1 and a horse like super saver wins with a 2 with a great trip. Who really knows.

[alm]

Thanks for a thoughtful post about LAL, but I think your conclusioin about him is off.  Baffert is training the horse as if he is trying to keep him in one piece and to keep him in the race.  He had the jock shut him down at the end of his last work.  He\'s worried...that\'s not normal.

Maybe the horse will get through the Derby and fire a big number, as you suggest, but I believe there is an equally strong liklihood he won\'t run big.

As for AA, read the post above, which quotes Noseda.  If that inspires confidence in you for your betting, you need to reconsider your thinking overall on this race.  He\'s practically telling you that he has completely altered his training on this horse and now hopes for the best.

Don\'t bet his hope...bet the sound horses with good numbers coming into the race with no excuses.

[MO]

I see LAL as a horse who fits the pattern of \"throw out\" based on last years seminar. His races are slow - except the 1 dirt race, from which he should have bounced despite the bad trip. He is supposed to keep tailing off, as is Noble\'s Promise. The premise being that horses run 1 good race after switching to dirt from poly and then bounce, tail off.

Sidney\'s Candy is another SLOW horse who should not like dirt as much as poly.

Devil May Care is fast but the 0 is a huge jump. She did not look good to me working. In fact of all the horses working in the YouTube videos, the most impressive was Discreetly Mine. He looked like he was really enjoying his work over the track while the filly ran with her head high.

In the Oaks,

Blind Luck is another who figures to bounce big time Friday off that negative number. The Oaks comes down to Tidal Pool, Amen H, Champagne D\'oro and Quiet Temper. Should make for some juicy Oaks/Derby doubles.

[nyc1347]

I hear everyone talking about SLOW horses but no one even gives Nobles Promise any consideration?   Are we using the same data? lol

[drbillym]

Correct alm, hoping is for old ladies

[RICH]

The DRF has a nice write up on him today, they know what there doing. Nosada hasn\'t even been here, Assmussen appears to be involved with some decisions with this horse, beware

[jimbo66]

Alm,

I won\'t factor in the \"trainer speak\" from Noseda.  Last time I listened to a trainer talk it was Larry Jones, after he had Hard Spun work out in 57 a few days before the derby, which everybody criticized (me too).  I then listened to him speak about the workout and combination of the \"drawl\" and all the \"you know\'s\" made me think he was in idiot, so decided to get off Hard Spun as my key under Street Sense....

Noseda doesn\'t sound too bright either, if those are direct quotes.  But the horse has perked up in workouts and gallups the last few days (for what that is worth).  And the race sets up for his style.

jbrown007

Are you the 7th child of Jerry Brown  Anyway, I can\'t blame you for landing on Lookin At Lucky, but IMO it breaks a cardinal rule of betting on horses (my rule, not a general rule).  I can\'t bet a favorite who has no discernable edge over the rest of the horses.  Eskendereya was a rare favorite that I would have bet because he was significantly faster than the competition.  LAL has the one fast figure, and even that figure is at best \"as fast\" as a few others.  His others are slower (albeit potentially somewhat irrelevant because they are synthetic figs).  Hard to take him as the favorite.  There has to be better value in the race IMO.  (and I think there is)  This doesn\'t even factor in the horse\'s potential to get in trouble (which is not just \"bad luck\" IMO, I think it is because of his style, which is that of a \"grinder\" - yes, I know that not everybody agrees with that, but we are all allowed our opinions/interpretations).  I also laugh when I see writers talk about how LAL was moving up and would have beat Sydney\'s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.  Forget it.  No shot he had.

[jack72906]

Are we going to start this debate all over again?

[jbrown007]

Jimbo I agree that the numbers are pretty equal among the top contenders but i am one to have a lot of faith in Bob Baffert. He is not the type of trainer to bullshit and he is not the type of trainer that has his horses ready to fire their top number off the bench. thorograph shows that 20% of the time they reach top number third off the bench. Considering Baffert said he was not 100% cranked and ran a 0 in the Ark Derby that is enough for me to believe he can fire bigger and better then that. If there was one horse i would be willing to wager on top other then lucky it would have to be Devil because we just don\'t know how good she is. She has a nice running style and maybe the blinkers will really get her focused.
-As far as Awesome Act. I had to fight with myself to put him in my top 3. I understand he has solid thorograph numbers but am I the only one who watches this horse battle his jockey in every race he runs? I have a cardinal rule that if a horse can\'t relax I will not put him on my tickets in the Kderby. Easiest toss I ever made was Lawyer ron just from watching him fight his jockey every race he ran. Yes I think AA is a very talented horse but they are still schooling him at churchill because he has not figured it all out yet. I am also banking on the pace setting up for AA to drop back off the early speed and leperoux just letting the horse progressively move up instead of fighting him the entire race.

-I do not believe LAL would have won that race vs Sidney\'s Candy but I think we will have a different scenario come derby day. A lot of inferior horses can step up and beat better horses when they get loose on the lead with slow fractions. Horse isnt going to be sitting on the lead with 24 48 fractions.

[jimbo66]

jbrown,

Good points.  I didn\'t mean to say that YOU thought LAL would have beat SC in the Santa Anita derby, I heard it last night from a \"professional handicapper\" and have heard it from a few other people recently as well.  Agree with you 100% that the derby is a whole different animal.

[jbrown007]

jimbo. You are probably going to laugh at me but I just decided that I am going to use Noble\'s Promise as well. Now I am working with AA,LAL,Noble,Devil,Super Saver. If the track comes up wet Cuvee is currently hitting at 29% on an offtrack. The number is unheard of. The horse is light on his feet and I believe he should skip over the track. You can also look at the sire stats and see cuvee only wins on synthetic at a 12% clip yet wins on dirt at 19% so there is was little doubt he would move up on the dirt. The 13% at a mile and over is a little disturbing and I know everyone believes he may have distance limitations but this horse is a fighter. He should have a nice trip breaking from post 3 and sitting behind the front runners. Super saver and Line are to his outside and they should clear. Ice box to his inside should allow him to get some space. Now i know the lung infection is a major concern. In 1995 Tejano run was trained by mcpeek and he had lung issues and also foot issues however mcpeek got him right and he ran 2nd. McPeek is another trainer who sets his horses to run new tops 3rd of the bench. He is really training strong and he blew by a nice looking filly beautician the other. Welsch said he galloped out the best of all the workers in his last work and the rider said it was PERFECT. This is a push button horse. This is a horse who i liked a lot but jumped off after the ARK derby and lung infection. He is working great, scoping clean and his numbers are more then competitive. In fact he has pretty much been on an improving pattern since his 2 year old campaign. This horse could just sail up to 15 or 20-1 on derby day because nobody gives him a chance. If it comes up wet I am willing to bet him to win place show at huge odds.

[drbillym]

Lay it on us!

[jimbo66]

Dbrillym,

THe odds are up to 60% on the thundershowers now.  I am hoping for \"no\" on the sloppy track.

I don\'t want to \"re-handicap\" it yet because that could be \"bad kharma\", but I will say a couple things.

When the track at Churchill gets very sloppy, it is usually speed-favoring (like a lot of tracks).  The year that Smarty Jones won, it was very clear that Lion Heart got helped by that track, as a smallish horse that \"skipped over\" the surface, I remember Mike Smith saying after the race that he felt great about his chances on that track and he was somewhat surprised that Smarty went by him.  If we get sloppy on Saturday, I will re-handicap though, because the race changes.  I would NOT play for a pace collapse on the wet track.  1st off, I don\'t think there would be as many pace players, because of the fact that several in the field won\'t like the surface, they will be unable to keep up early as they normally would have been able to.  

At first glance, I would move Noble\'s Promise into the contender\'s list, being out of the Carson City line and also thinking that the 1 1/4 distance becomes less of an issue on a sloppy surface.  I would also move Paddy\'s Prado way up, because that horse has worked the best this week.  But both works were on sloppy surfaces.  We don\'t REALLY know if the horse likes dirt yet, but we do know that he reveled in the slop in the workouts and is an improving horse as Mjellish has pointed out.

[TreadHead]

From the ESPN PP draw article:

Heavy rain is forecast for the Louisville area beginning late Friday and continuing into Derby Day. The National Weather Service is calling for a 60 percent chance of showers Saturday, with a rain accumulation of 1½ to 2 inches.

Even under wet conditions, a crowd well in excess of 100,000 is expected.

EDIT - just went to the national wether service website and looked thru more details and maps, I\'d bet 10-1 it will be sloppy and very, very wet.

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/kentucky.php

[Uncle Buck]

If it does rain - who has the \"Frog\" information? After MTB blew it up last year, someone (can\'t remember who) came with \"That horse had a very high frog in his hoofs making it easy for him to negotiate the mud easily.\"

Got Frog? H.F.I. - High Frog Info!