There's not a single horse in this race that I wouldn't toss if they drew poorly

[covelj70]

I have the list of horses that I like and that I intend to use but there\'s not a single horse in the race that I won\'t toss in they draw 16 or out today.

There\'s no Big Brown in here who are fast enough relative to the others to overcome a post/trip.

There are alot of Any Given Saturday\'s and Cirqular Quay\'s who could run a number that would be good enough to hit the board IF they had the right trip but who will finish 7th with the wrong trip.

I believe MJ has said this several times but in a year of relative parity and slower overall numbers (to this point), the draw is more important than ever.

Can\'t wait for noon.

[jack72906]

Couldn\'t agree more. This is exactly why I haven\'t made any predictions yet.

I have a list of 6. 3 of which I\'m using in the 1st and 2nd slots and using the rest with others to fill out the Tri/Super slots.

If any of the 3 draw 17 or higher or even the rail, the whole strategy changes.

[alm]

I think both of you are right on.  This is a wide open race for about a third of the entrants.

We probably differ on this, however: I think Pletcher has 4 in the contender group.  There\'s no reason his 4 can\'t finish 1-2-3-4 as opposed to any other 4 contenders.

So the question for me is: do I parse the contenders for a focused bet,do I plan a major spread or do I concede that he is likely to provide an exacta, trifecta or more?

[moosepalm]

Quite possibly the most salient point I have yet read about handicapping this race.

[reboundman]

Are you referring to the win position only? Closing Argument and Don\'t Get Mad came from 18 and 17, respectively.

[covelj70]

I will have to let the closing arguments of the world beat me in this year\'s race at 70-1 (I did like that horses pattern coming into that race but didn\'t use him)

it\'s not that no horse from out there could possibly win but I just don\'t think that any of this year\'s horses is so much better than the rest that they are likely to overcome that obstacle.  Like JB frequently says, it\'s all about the percentages and the percentages say that that, all else equal with the pattern and speed figs which is the case this year with many of them, post matters alot.

[TreadHead]

I think a lot has to do with the race shape here.  Drawing aux gate may not be a bad thing if you are going to not be part of the 10+ horses who are going to gun for the lead or try to sit just off it.  

For some of the deep closers, it is very possible they could start 20th but get down to something like 3 wide by the turn if they drop back far enough, which may end up being a much better trip than someone starting from the 10 hole trying to be near the lead with 6 other fast horses inside him will get.  But outside gate for a horse trying to show any speed, I agree is a death wish here.

[MO]

I believe that unless you have the best horse by a lot (Big Brown) or are packing  machine, the aux gate is a major drawback.

[miff]

Post position statistically overrated last 15 years.Seven of last fifteen(7-15)winners came from post 12 thru 20. Supposed ground saving positions 1 and 2 and 4 have no winners during the same period (post 3 had Real Quiet)

Race dynamics,trips very important factor in any race and impossible to predict in this one.I\'d venture to say that the odds of predicting where most of the field will be after the first quarter are a zillion to one.

Good luck will be needed by all runners as none of these have shown the ability to overcome a real bad \"derby\" type trip.

Mike

[Flighted Iron]

Miff,

  Not a big fan of baffert here.his comments lead me to beleive he\'s rather self-absorbed.all that aside, LAL has almost gone down in his last two races and I cant
see how he doesn\'t qualify for bad derby trips.I uncomfortably have to give LAL
credit where credit is due.He\'s a race warrior.whether he returns to his top or
beyond is another story.

good luck,
mjs

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Have to politely disagree completely with your statement and agree with Miff, especially for this year\'s Derby.

Unless you disagree with the fact that this year\'s Derby pace will be fast and likely very very fast, then I don\'t see how logically you can think post will matter that much.  With the fast start and the long run into the first turn, the field will be very stretched out and that will allow many many horses to get over and be 2w or 3w.  You may see nobody 5w this year (on the first turn).  The \"wide wide\" derbies, especially into the first turn, are caused by slow early paces and clumped fields.  This group will get stretched out early and will allow for lots of \"seams\" when they start approaching the mile mark and the far turn.  Predicting ground loss on the far turn is just guessing and by then, the riders will have had a chance to decide how they will make their moves.  

Mj,

Saw your post on this too and don\'t understand your point.  perhaps you could expand/explain.  You see the fast pace making post more important because the pace players will slow down on the far turn, making horses go wide?  Yes, I guess somebody could get shut off with a horse stopping in front of them, or have to go wide around stopping horses, but there are horses stopping almost every year on the far turn of the derby and even if this does factor in, IMO it is more than offset by the fact that the fast early pace will mitigate ground loss for many in the first turn.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

There\'s no doubt that Conveyance and Line of David will be winging on the front end.

After that, I just don\'t see Borel, Flores, Talamo, and JJ pushing their horses too much when the come by the wire the first time.  Whether we like them our not, all of them believe they have some chance in the race and everyone is so aware of how hot this pace is suppossed to be that I think they all try and control themselves.  None of them is going to worry about Con and LOD taking it all the way.

I think those first two will set a very fast pace but then I see the others all in a big pack behind them and if someone is coming from the 20 hole, it\'s not going to be easy to get over/through/around that pack to save ground.  I can easily envision the 15-20 post horses 6w on the first turn.  Big Brown had tremendous tactical speed and even he was 4w into the turn and then just good enough to do that all the way around (much to my dismay).  None of these is good enough to pull that off.

it\'s very very hard to project positioning in this thing (other than Borel being on the rail somewhere) but none of these is talented enough relative to the others to overcome any issues in the race at all and at the very least, the 15-20 posts present another challenge for a group that doesn\'t seem to overcome challenges all that way.

[miff]

Ironman,

I\'m speaking \"ability\" to overcome a bad derby type trip and if he has,I have not seen it. Granted he had two rather tough trips.A very CAREFUL look shows those bad trips to have been over stated by the media and anyone who does not watch alot of races.

LAL\'s last is a mulligan, even though he was totally empty from the 1/8 th pole to the wire.LAL was outrun by a common slug, Setsuko, from behind no less.No telling how much was the result of the squeezing he took approaching the final turn.Gomez absolutely rode this one out off a perfect otherwise ground saving trip along the fence.

LAL detractors,like me, have to considered he is better on dirt, faster than his figs and a gutsy hard trier.The price, 4-1-ish imo is no bargain and it\'s sad that ESCY scratched, a mortal lock, with LAL a dead piece second choice.


Mike

[MonmouthGuy]

Jimbo.

I think Brother Derek was 5w7W the year that Sinister Minister and Keyed Entry went out in 22 and change.  I still don\'t think you want to start out in the parking lot.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

We will just have to agree to disagree.  Borel, Flores, Talamo and JJ\'s horses have way more natural speed than the rest of the field and would be foolish not to use it, to get position.  The first two will fly early, the other speed horses will leave the gate relatively hard to get position in behind what they expect will be the quitting leaders.  The field will get strung out.  There is no reason to think that we will see two horses up front and then 18 clumped together.  Too many horses with natural cruising speeds that are very high, relative to the midpack horses and the closers.

I will wager is if this is NOT the year to worry too much about post position.  I want the horse(s) that I think are fast enough to win, going in, without having to run too much of a new top (if at all), and will be sitting behind what projects to be a very fast and contested pace.