There's not a single horse in this race that I wouldn't toss if they drew poorly

[slewzapper]

LOD and Conveyance will look to be in the first flight. If there posts make them work for it, both will be done earlier than expected.

Too many horses (on paper) are looking to stalk the first flight. Their posts will matter, especially if the first two can get out comfortably and compress the front end.

Everyone else should be able to find a reasonable path given the long run into the first turn provided they don\'t flip out from the crowd or gate trouble.

Toss Dublin if he gets an inside post.

[Flighted Iron]

.\"A very CAREFUL look shows those bad trips to have been over stated by the media and anyone who does not watch alot of races\".


  Almost going down twice imo is hardly overstating anything,but I suppose it\'s best to agree to disagree.Not a peticular fan of LAL and don\'t think he\'ll win it,but will use him underneath.

good luck,
mjs

[MO]

TAP absolutely hit the jackpot on this draw.

[jack72906]

Exactly what I was referring to. In my list of 6 I had 3 keys. LAL, Sidney, and Awesome Act. Every one of them drew poorly IMO. Back to the drawing board.....

[moosepalm]

In the past nine years, the #1 post has not hit the board, and the aux gate hit only twice with Big Brown (who would have hit if he started in the parking lot) and Closing Argument from #18.  However, the aux gate positions are underrepresented as only in the past five years has it consistently filled.

[MonmouthGuy]

While that is true, I think it is more a result of the horses that have been in the #1 PP.  For example, Sedgefield didn\'t hit the board at 58-1 because he is a slug, not because of the PP.  He was forwardly placed, got a perfect ride, and had every chance at the top of the stretch but was empty.

[sekrah]

Who has been in the #1 hole the past 9 years?

2009 - West Side Bernie, 32-1
2008 - Cool Coal Man, 44-1
2007 - Sedgefield, 58-1 (5th)
2006 - Jazil, 24-1 (4th-dh)
2005 - Sort It Out, 61-1
2004 - Limehouse, 41-1 (4th)
2003 - Supah Blitz, 43-1
2002 - Johannesburg, 8-1 (8th), Got a great trip, I didn\'t like this horse though
2001 - Songandaprayer, 35-1


Only 1 horse out of the past 9 were a serious contender.  2 of the bombers hit the exotics, and another just missed.


Factor in as others have pointed out, this is likely to be a well strung out field with all the pace and the post positions may not have as huge an impact as it sometimes does in other years.  I\'m certaintly not tossing LAL because of his post.

[miff]

Who has been in the #1 hole the past 9 years?


.....you can say that about any hole for 80% of the field over the years. Win, lose or draw, post 1 is NO GOOD in chute races!

[moosepalm]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Who has been in the #1 hole the past 9 years?
>
> 2009 - West Side Bernie, 32-1
> 2008 - Cool Coal Man, 44-1
> 2007 - Sedgefield, 58-1 (5th)
> 2006 - Jazil, 24-1 (4th-dh)
> 2005 - Sort It Out, 61-1
> 2004 - Limehouse, 41-1 (4th)
> 2003 - Supah Blitz, 43-1
> 2002 - Johannesburg, 8-1 (8th), Got a great trip,
> I didn\'t like this horse though
> 2001 - Songandaprayer, 35-1
>
>
> Only 1 horse out of the past 9 were a serious
> contender.  2 of the bombers hit the exotics, and
> another just missed.
>
>
> Factor in as others have pointed out, this is
> likely to be a well strung out field with all the
> pace and the post positions may not have as huge
> an impact as it sometimes does in other years.
> I\'m certaintly not tossing LAL because of his
> post.

Sekrah, that\'s a fair counterpoint, and I certainly had no intent of questioning your, or anyone else\'s, selection of LAL.  If he outruns his odds, as has been the trend suggested by your research, you should do quite well this year.  Nonetheless, it would seem, historically, when the \"pill pull\" gave trainers an order of choice, the #1 slot was generally one of the last taken.  I tried to google more specifics on this, but, could only come up with \'01 and \'09 when it was the last post taken, and \'08, when it was the third last post taken.

Also, above, I erred in talking about the auxiliary gate, because I was referring only to the 17-20 posts, as opposed to 15-20.

[sekrah]

Trainers think there horses are great.  They would rather have a wide trip with open air in front of them instead of getting a good horse trapped in too late to win.  They clearly have been over paranoid about the post over the years.   Jockeys also prefer to have clear sailing wide than to navigate a potential traffic jam.   Jerry Bailey apparently loves that Sidney got 20 and that is the perfect spot for him.  Go figure.  

LAL is not my key, but I do envision him trailing Super Saver\'s vapor trail and getting a piece of the exotics.