Here Are The Post Positions

[SonicDonn]

2010 Kentucky Derby Post Positions

1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Ice Box
3. Nobles Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Line of David
6. Simply Victor
7. American Lion
8. Dean\'s Kitten
9. Make Music For Me
10. Paddy O Prado
11. Devil May Care (filly)
12. Conveyance
13. Jackson Bend
14. Mission Impazible
15. Discreetly Mine
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
19. Homeboykris
20. Sidneys Candy

[sekrah]

Looking at Unlucky?

[MO]

Had no shot with a decent post. He will be the 4-1 post time favorite because of the bad draw. Interesting that even though LOD beat both Dublin and SS last out, they are half his ML price (30-1). Now that SS has drawn perfectly with BORAIL, his price will drop to about 10-1 post time.

[SonicDonn]

I hope the post positions of (1) Lookin At Lucky and (20) Sidney\'s Candy will not discourage their supporters.

(2) Ice Box should save all the ground early on and make a big run late.

[sekrah]

Agree.. that 2 hole suits Ice Box just fine and he moves up in this draw.

Sidney\'s Candy is not Big Brown and the chance Talamo gets him anything other than 4w4w or worse here are zero.    I was going to him underneath but out of the 20 hole I think he falls off all of my tickets completely.   I\'m still using LAL, but he\'s no longer a key.

[SonicDonn]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> but out of the 20 hole I think he falls off all of
> my tickets completely.

>  I\'m still using LAL, but
> he\'s no longer a key.



Unfortunately, I think many will drift away form supprting LAL and SC because of the draw.

[sekrah]

Eh, I wouldn\'t go too far.. they might lose a little bit, but not a ton.  LAL might go from 3-1 to 7/2.  Sidney may still go off at 5-1.

I don\'t think the general non-horse racing public that will be betting Saturday cares about post position.  I really don\'t know how much cheaper Big Brown would of went off at in 2008 if he drew to the middle.  Maybe he woulda snuck to 9/5, I duno.  But since he broke the ice on the 20th PP it may be even less of a problem now.

Super Saver/Calvin Borel have a 1w1w right in their lap now.   I think Borel can do ALOT from that spot and he moves up even more on my board.. Hell, he could catch a 0.5w/0.5w ;-)    He\'ll be able to clear Lucky easily and let Line of David go and tuck a few lenghts back of him.  The Field should be strung out sufficiently enough to get a move from there and force Gomez and Lucky into doing somethign they really don\'t want to do.

[Lost Cause]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Had no shot with a decent post. He will be the 4-1
> post time favorite because of the bad draw.
> Interesting that even though LOD beat both Dublin
> and SS last out, they are half his ML price
> (30-1). Now that SS has drawn perfectly with
> BORAIL, his price will drop to about 10-1 post
> time.


I\'m a little lost here..Why would the 1 hole be bad for LAL..He was not going to the front.  He won\'t have to navigate to the rail.  He\'ll sit in the back, let his entrymate do damage up front and try to pick them off around the turn and down the stretch.  For all I know he might get the rail closing trip ala Mine that bird.  Soemone please explain..On the Flip side Sydney\'s candy is a dead play from that post as far as i\'m concerned..

[MO]

Coming off a race where this horse was pinned on the rail, the horse will remember that bad experience and balk. the horse will have to be ridden hard all the way. Thats from a pace perspective. Couple that with his bad TG line......

[MonmouthGuy]

I don\'t disagree.  No reason he can\'t get get a Sedgefield type trip, save ground and, whereas Sedgefield circled the track like a merry go round, LAL may be able to pick off a couple more horses in the stretch.

[Dana666]

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2

Not quite understanding why the 1 post is so bad; other than the fact that you sit in the gate for a few minutes???

[miff]

Dana,

Most of the post one winners came way back when the fields were much smaller,less  early crowding. The time in the gate is always negative.The first few posts must angle out to avoid running smack into the rail which jets out after the break(app 1/32 into the race)


Mike

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

Lookin at Lucky won\'t be 3-1, nor would he have been with a different draw.  

The race is wide open, with no clear favorite for the public to \"latch onto\".

LAL goes off at 9-2, with Sydney\'s Candy 7-1.  We will see more horses than usual in the 10-1 to 16-1 range.  Horses like Awesome Act, Devil May Care, Dublin, Super Saver, Ice Box, Mission Impazzible.

The betting will be spread and anybody who gets this derby right, will get paid real well.

[MO]

A couple of years ago there was a gate scratch from the 1 hole. Rather than move all horses over 1 post, they left the load \"as is\" which points to the fact that the 1 hole in a 20 horse Derby is the worst place to begin.

[alm]

The filly may have gotten the best draw...if the draw comes to mean anything.