Here Are The Post Positions

[Lost Cause]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dana,
>
> Most of the post one winners came way back when
> the fields were much smaller,less  early crowding.
> The time in the gate is always negative.The first
> few posts must angle out to avoid running smack
> into the rail which jets out after the break(app
> 1/32 into the race)
>
>
> Mike


But how does the rail jutting out affect LAL as he has no speed and should be able to steer clear of that jut out with no issues from the rear.  I\'m not saying I like LAL yet but to me that PP draw isn\'t bad for a horse with his running style.  As far as the early crowding , once again, LAL will not be a part of that early crowding.

[MO]

He will be in the gate the longest of any othr horse, up to 90 seconds, an eternity on Derby Day.

[Dana666]

Yeah, I don\'t think its so bad - there should be enough blazing speed to clear a little space and hopefully he\'ll be able to find some room down the backstretch. Trips are so huge in this race anyway; how can you possibly say who\'s going to get a bad or good trip just off the draw? No one knows, really.

[alm]

LAL has to either run through the field (could get lucky a la Ferdinand or Mine That Bird) or around it.  You bet him if you believe he will find a path through or if you think he is Secretariat, who spotted the entire field out of the gate and then circled them through both turns.

I think he will have trouble hitting the board.

[sekrah]

I\'ll take $10,000,000,000 on the under on both of your LAL and SC predictions.

[jack72906]

I would agree with this but why do you think SS will now be able to pass at least 3 or 4 horses?

That is my biggest issue with this horse and I\'m even willing to say that Borel may be worth a 1 point on the TG Scale.

[jbrown007]

Jack to me that is an easy answer. 1) third race off the bench. 2)it\'s not as easy as you think to pass a horse when you are being rated for pretty much the first time in your career. 3)Line of David got loose on the lead and slowed the race down from the 6 furlong pole to the mile 110-136(26 seconds). 4) The horse loves Churchill downs.

-Will he win? I am not sure the overall pace plays in his favor but I can definitely see him moving forward.

[MO]

Calvin on TVG today: says he\'s taking back, going to the rail, let the other speed fight it out.

[miff]

Lost,

Taking back from the rail, in a long chute race,is very difficult.A dead closer like Icebox may not be affected too much,LAL is not a dead closer.

Trainers choose posts like the 18,19,20 slot year after year over the rail for fear of getting buried along the inside.I think LAL has to kinda protect from being buried which may be possible but not easy from down there.I think if you were on the fence with LAL, the rail makes him a toss.


Mike

[sekrah]

What the hell is it with this \"hasn\'t passed any horses\" nonsense I keep seeing?  Half the Derby winners in the past 6 years couldn\'t pass a horse in their preps.

MTB couldn\'t pass allowance grade horses at Sunland Park,
Giacomo was a stiff in the stretch of his preps, he passed 10 after coming off the
turn in the Derby.
Funny Cide hadn\'t passed a soul in his life and he stalked and rolled right by the front runners in the Derby.
War Emblem coulda been a toss as well as he hadn\'t beaten anyone.  He didn\'t have to in the Derby either but not a whole lot of people seen that coming.

There\'s 4 winners in the past 8 years you tossed out because you believed they couldn\'t pass anyone.  IMO, your all just looking for a boogey-man under the bed here where there is none.   You\'re assuming he can\'t pass horses because of what?  One race?

Who can he pass in the Champagne when he sets the 45.3/1:09.2 pace?

In the Kentucky JC he set the pace, Activity Report pulled 1/2 length ahead of him at the top of the stretch and when Borel asked for the final gear, he goodness gracious, PASSED HIM, and pulled away from the field.

Tampa Bay Derby, first off the layoff, Schoolyard Dreams came around the turn like a bolt of lightning, went ahead a length just as they were coming out of the turn, Dominguez panicked and went to the whip on SS and he took off like a shot, and to the shock of the patrons at Tampa Bay Derby, PASSED Schoolyard Dream, pulling back ahead and led him for a few hundred yards in the stretch, before tiring.  Again, first of a layoff, certaintly a good excuse for not being 100% fit.

As far as the Arkansas Derby is concerned, he ran a very grueling 1:36.2 mile and he came home in about 12.3.  Not sure what you want to make of that, but I\'ve seen very few people actually giving Line of David credit for his performance there.  Esky\'s final prep was a very soft 1:37.2 and he came home in 12.1 and everyone was falling all over themselves to the windows.

[sekrah]

I seen an article somewhere about Calvin and Todd talking making a slight switch in tactics for the Derby.

That first turn Super Saver will be 3-5 lengths off the lead and hugging the rail.   He\'s already got the field beat right there.  If nothing horrible happens the rest of the way he wins the race.

[sekrah]

Gomez would be wise to tuck behind Super Saver and follow Borel around the track.

[MO]

I suspected the work in 48 2/5  would lead to this. Normally, i would not like this scenario because you don\'t change a horses running style. They are creatures of habit. However, I think LOD has peaked and Conveyance isn\'t that fast. I think Borel knows this. So he probably can afford to stalk those 2 and inherit the lead on the turn.

[jack72906]

No reason to get excited over a simple question. I like the horse given his draw, but that\'s my concern. That\'s why I asked your thoughts as well as those of others.

BTW, I think you have me confused about tossing out 4 winners the last 8 years with someone else. I\'ve only been posting on this board for just over a year now.

[sekrah]

Sorry jack, you weren\'t the one I was referring to, didn\'t mean to take it out on you personally.  My bubbling over was an accumulation of seeing multiple posts about how SS was a toss because he hasn\'t pass anyone.  As if he chooses not to pass other horses or something which is absurd given the evidence.