Here Are The Post Positions

[MonmouthGuy]

American Lion, the fastest horse in the race, and the only horse with a negative number, is 30-1 on the ML and drew well.

Negatives. The race shape indicates that he won\'t get to the lead early, he\'s never really rated, and I am not sure he wants dirt kicked in his face. Pace handicappers like R. Moss hate the way he came home in his last prep but because of the strong headwind in stretch (i think covelj70 mentioned) perhaps it was better than it looked. He did draw away from the favorite.  He didn\'t beat much as it was probably the worst prep, but then again neither did the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby from Hawthorne, who was also a front-running type.

Wasn\'t real fast at 2YO so he has already developed 4+ points, and could certainly bounce second time dirt, after synth to dirt jump in last (a 4+ point top). But his race 2 back was a buried 4, and pattern says 33% for a new top.

In a race without an obvious choice, can one do worse than keying a horse that may be 40-1+ by post time that may be the fastest horse in the race, is bred to go long, will be forwardly placed and should move up on an off track. My key.

At worst, he seems likely to be an overlay to me, although R. Moss said he wouldn\'t bet him at 75-1 in his last column.

[slewzapper]

At least LAL has a rap sheet when it comes to being in traffic (not that it led to him avoiding trouble). Gomez will break him OK.

A lot of these will be facing prolonged company for the first time, and how they respond is not as predictable.

[P-Dub]

I think Jimbo will be closer than you think.

As far as non-horseplayer money, this gets overblown every year.

Yes, there are many non-horseplayers that play the Derby. But really, how much do they wager?? $2 across on a hopeless longshot?? $5 to win on another?? Non-horseplayers are not throwing around large sums of money on the race. Not every non-horseplayer that attends the Derby is Michael Jordan. He might throw around a few large, but doubtful others would.

In addition to non-horseplayers betting, you get a large influx of people who actually follow racing wagering also. Every weekend warrior plays the Derby. Every horseplayer that doesn\'t play on a regular basis, will be out in force on Derby Day.  These players also wager a lot more than non-horseplayers. These people more than cancel out non-horseplayers. In a pool this large, I would think it would be dominated by people who are generally speaking horseplayers.

LAL is no Big Brown or Fu Peg.  He will be the favorite, but to think this horse will be 3-1 or 7/2 is questionable at best. This is a wide open Derby and as Jimbo states, I wouldn\'t be surprised to see the favorite - probably LAL - around 9/2.   Guess we\'ll find out starting Friday when the pools open.