Why is Paddy O 20-1 when he lost to SV who is 30-1?

[covelj70]

First of all, I know the morning line doesn\'t mean anything in the first place but that said,

I know everyone is in love with how Paddy is training but Stately Victor destroyed him last time.

How is SV, who has run well on dirt before, 30-1 on the ML when POP who has never run on dirt 20-1?

What am I missing?

[miff]

Cov,


Good point, same LOD being much longer than SS and Dublin.


Mike

[Uncle Buck]

Mike Battaglia. That is why

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Probably best for MJ to answer, as on this board he is the biggest Paddy O proponent, but I think it is a pretty easy answer, to be honest.  

With apologies to Michael D, who picked this horse in the Bluegrass, most of the rest of us saw a huge unexplainable jump up on synthetic in the Bluegrass, for a horse who is bred better for turf and synthetic than he is for dirt.  

Whereas Paddy O shows a steadily improving line, with newfound tactical speed, which made him look like a solid play in the bluegrass and he ran well there.  He is by El Prado, so no reason why he can\'t dirt.  His \"bad\" dirt race was his first lifetime start, which can be awful for many horses.

So, in summary, SV was a one time \"jump up\", bred for synth/turf, while Paddy is a steadily improving horse, who can potentially run as well on dirt as he does on synth/turf (by his breeding).  

And \"yes\", he got the only \"wow\" workout report from Welsch.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I\'m not saying SV is any kind of lock or anything but SV ran big to Winslow Homer with a 9 on the sheets in his first lifetime race in the slop at the Spa after breaking very poorly.

Just seems like he\'s being overlooked in this thing in part because he was training at the Training Center all week so the clockers weren\'t watching him everyday like they were for Paddy.

SV might be the best closer in the race and he\'s certainly bred for the distance.

a 1 on the sheets on the poly is nothing to sneeze at and we we have seen horses jump up to a big number and essentially pair it before in this race (i.e. Don\'t Get Mad and Summer Bird)

It\'s not like he\'s a key for me or anything, I was just highlighting an anomaly.

[P-Dub]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> Mike Battaglia. That is why


There\'s a daily double for you.

Battaglia race caller and line maker.

I don\'t know which one he sucks more at.

At least when he makes a line, you don\'t have to hear him.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Summer Bird\'s \"jump up\" was in the Arkansas Derby, a dirt surface very similar to the one at Churchill.  (I believe Don\'t Get MAd\'s was also on dirt, but I could be wrong on that one)

SV\'s \"jump up\" was on one of the worst surfaces for predictability anywhere in North America, on the Keenland polytrack, which has shown to have almost zero correlation to dirt.

SV could be a closer on dirt, and the race might collapse, but I would take Paddy O in a matchup bet versus him every day and twice on Sunday.  (and yes, I will sneeze at the \"1\" on polytrack from keenland when I am handicapping a dirt race)

Good luck (although it sounds like we are polarized on quite a few horses)

Jim

[covelj70]

This is an awesome Derby to play

There are so many horses where half the people believe a horse is a toss and the other half believe they are the most likely winners, it\'s awesome

as you said, if you have it, you will get paid, no doubt.

Final word from me on this but I don\'t understand how you could be confident that Paddy will dirt but not assume that SV can given that SV already has and Paddy hasn\'t.

I don\'t know yet if I will use either one of them or both of them yet.