Good luck Jim. We agree on a few things.
Super Saver - my futures pick. bred well to get the distance. solid \'2.25\' top over the surface at 2. tough time changing leads first out in the Tam Derby, but paired top last with Borel back up. don\'t expect a big jump on 3 weeks, but this is a pretty fit colt who figures to get the inside trip. a 1w/1w run in the \'1\' range puts him right there. will not, however, be 15-1.
Mission Impaz - loved him in the La Derby. another \'4.5\' won\'t do it, but there are some things to like: he relaxes well in a year where rating is a valued commodity, and he should get a decent amount of stamina from his broodmare sire and 2nd dam. Pletcher\'s other 3 are speed/stalker types, and I expect the instructions here will be to drop back. big top on 5 weeks a possibility. in my quest to find the longshot that might benefit most from the fast pace, I have landed on MI at a price. the likelihood of an off track, however, has tempered my enthusiasm for this selection.
SS and MI were to be my two keys, but the ugly forecast calls for a few minor tweaks (though my level of confidence drops markedly if sloppy). three horses with off-track pedigrees:
Discreetly Mine - too slow going in, but the sheet looks good and the jock is strong. not sure about Mineshaft on top, but Private Account and Believe It on bottom suggest an off track should not be a problem. note the dam’s wet track victory in the 10f Alabama. good stamina in the pedigree as well. may not have wanted 10f over a fast track, but DM might forget to stop in the slop. long odds.
Stately Victor - Ghostzapper is out of a Relaunch mare and he loved the slop. dam by In Reality. note the solid race first out over the off going at Sar. I was originally against this guy on dirt, but the fast pace and breeding could work in his favor if wet. huge odds.
Awesome Act - love Awesome Again over Mr Prospector over Halo in the slop. in the end though, I won‘t be keying on AA, as I don’t want to be 5 deep in the top spots, and SV and DM will be much longer on the board.
Key SS and MI over a fast track, go four deep including DM and SV if wet.
