Breding Sometimes Counts

[albany]

Today\'s Derby results demonstrate that breeding should not be ignored. Both Super Saver and Ice Box trace directly to the great La Troienne\'s family. This is genetic magic.

[alm]

Whoops.  I bred at least three horses myself that traced in both families to La Troienne.  I still can\'t figure why none of them made it to the Derby...or a stakes race...or an allowance race.

[albany]

Mrs. Sullivan had twelve children but only one John L.

Breeding to a top distaff family does not guarantee success. It simply improves your chances.

The are thousands upon thousands of distaff lines. The first two finishers in this years Derby came from the same distaff line. A line that has produced innumerable graded stakes winners and champions for nearly a century. You seem to be saying this means nothing. I respectfully disagree.

[alm]

I\'m saying a lot more than that...I\'ve bred some pretty fine horses and I can assure you that once you\'ve gone back more than a couple of generations, the gene pool is so diverse it means practically nothing.  

There were only 3 foundation sire lines in this breed...they were formed around 300 years ago.  The pool is so diluted for each of these that looking back 40 or 50 years is pointless...MANY horses have the line bred characteristics to which you are referring or some other line breeding that has produced a handful of champions.  

If you try to pick winners based on breeding you will pick losers most of the time.  Stick to TG numbers.

[albany]

I am not a pedigree handicapper. Pedigree is a piece of the puzzle. It should be considered when a horse is trying something different (e.g., new distance or surface).

It is, as you note, a basic rule of genetics that the contribution of each generation diminishes over time. There are some genetic contributors who appear to have greater influence than others. Such is the case with La Troienne. There are many horses that have the La Troienne influence through their sire lines (that\'s no surprise given the La Troienne line\'s quality). I\'m not talking about these horses. I am talking about distaff lines. There far far fewer such horses. In the Derby there were two such horses - Super Saver and Ice Box.

I\'m glad to hear that you have been successful in life and have bred many fine horses. I am interested to know what distaff line La Troienne mares you bred. How did you get them and what sires did you chose for them.

Best of luck,

Albany

[alm]

Let me say it this way and then we can stop boring people...I bred my best horses and more consistent horses when I breed phenotype to phenotype.  (Equix Biomechanics philosophy and practice.)

I got lucky occasionally with linebreeding before that...the best choices were generally in the Nasrullah line.  Overall have bred about 60 horses so far and 56 winners.  No losers and a generally higher class of horses with phenotype breeding.

[TGJB]

If 56 out of 60 got to the starting gate that\'s amazing enough.

[albany]

Yes, it\'s amazing.

I\'ve never heard of anything close to 56 winners from 60 breedings. I\'d say that\'s an unbelievable success rate. Congratualations are in order!

[alm]

Hey, most of these could run, but only one of them was a graded horse.  About 5 were stakes horses.  I\'m not making any ridiculous claims here, only that phenotype breeding has given me better results.  A better class of horse.  I had a lot of runners previously who won one time and were cheap speed.

And for what it is worth, about a third of these horses came from one mare who had 14 foals and 12 winners for me...and her daughters who had the same percentage of winners to foals.

[albany]

Alm:

Truly unbelievable success!

Albany

[bobphilo]

alm,

Belated congratulations. Just got around to reading this interesting thread. I also complement you on your choice of phenotype breeding. Actually, that is exactly what nature does with natural selection. Those with the right phenotype that allows them to survive, breed and pass on these traits. Those that don\'t, do not, regardless of their breeding. Nature is not impressed by pedigrees. The incredible ability of species to adapt to their environment is a testament to phenotype breeding.

No doubt, knowledge of pedigree can add some information to the genetic puzzle, but since what is most important in breeding is a particular horse\'s genotype, a horses phenotype is crucial since it reveals at least half of that genotype.

What is true for breeding goes double for handicapping. A particular horse\'s past performance is the best predictor of it\'s future performance, though Albany is correct that pedigree is of some use when a horse is attempting something totally new. However, is a much, much riskier method of prediction.

Bob