I think Super Saver is a great bet against in the Preakness

[covelj70]

It\'s almost a bit sacrilegious for me to say this after the ticket I cashed yesterday on Super Saver but hey, we are gamblers so here goes.

I think SS is a tremendous bet against in the Preakness almost regardless of who shows up against him.

My apologies if this has already been addressed in another thread but I am behind given my travels to Louisville.

First of all, he came into the Derby on 3 weeks rest so the Preakness will be his 3rd race in 5 weeks.  That\'s an awful lot for a horse that has had his races spaced out so well before now.

Second, he very likely ran at least a decent new top so he is likely to react anyway to a new top on short rest let alone back to back short rest, this will be very similar to the Belmont spacing for horses going for the triple crown and we know how many of them can run their number back.

Third and very importantly, I bet the jockey yesterday just as much if not more than I bet the horse and Calvin isn\'t nearly the same jockey outside of Churchill as he is under the Twin Spires.   Just think back to the ride he gave Street Sense in the Preakness compared to the one he gave SS in the Derby.  Whether its the rail not being as live at most tracks on most days as it often is at CD (thank god that became obvious over the course of the day on Saturday as I was ready to toss SS aside for American Lion on top as I mentioned in my post on Friday), or if its that other tracks tend to be more speed favoring than CD or any number of other things, the reality is that his numbers outside of CD are nowhere near as good.

Fourth, he will very very likely be overderbet as the Derby winner often is at Pimlico.

Let\'s see who shows up but one that I know is interesting is Schoolyard Dreams.  He has a very live pattern if I am reading it right.

[smalltimer]

You better hope sekrah doesn\'t read this.....lol

[analizethis]

I was actually thinking a similar thing only expanded. I don\'t know how much of an impact that strong wind had (I wasn\'t there but I\'d love to hear from those who were) but that closing half mile fraction was so slow that the track had to be very tiring and I think every horse that didn\'t just shut it down is a bet against in two weeks.

I believe that I read a Baffert quote that said he wished that Gomez had shut his horse down after the first bump. You never know with Bob, a lot of what he says is tongue in cheek, but I think he really meant it. I bet we don\'t we see LAL in Baltimore. Schoolyard Dreams deserves a look as does Rule and maybe the Sadler horse that won the Derby Trial.

[Silver Charm]

Would Winstar run Rule when they already have SS?? I bet they do not.

Would not be at all surprised to see Ice Box skipped it and wait for Belmont.

Lot of Derby runners drop out I predict. Pimlico will piece together 12-13 but that could include several new faces..

[sekrah]

Why would I get worked up?   The Preakness is another race on another day.  I could just as easily throw SS to the curb next week, I have to see the rest of the field and how he looks.

covel.. I\'ll take exception to one of your points.   The closest to the Triple Crown we have gotten in the past decade was in 2004 with Smarty Jones (who also won the Derby by 2 1/2 lengths).   Smarty not only ran in the Arkansas Derby on the same rest as Super Saver, he made his major speed figure breakout in the Rebel on March 20th!!  A week after the Tampa Bay Derby.   He did it with even less rest than what

It\'s very likely that this horse is just hitting his peak and it\'s very possible he could string together a row of TG negatives / 104-110 Beyers.

All that being said, I have no idea right now if I plan on betting the Preakness.

[sekrah]

Pleasant Prince is who interests me.

[covelj70]

Sekrah,

Smarty was pretty freaky.  If you go back and look at all of the horses that ran those kinds of numbers with that kind of spacing, the large large majority of them couldn\'t pull off what Smarty did.

We need to be careful about using the exception to the rule as our benchmark.  Percentages say he will move backwards in the Preakness and as I mentioned, there\'s a bunch of other stuff going against him (mostly Calvin outside of CD).

Either way, the buildup and the race will be a blast.  I look forward to your thoughts as we get closer to the day.

[alm]

Fully agree...he needed the perfect post to do his work.  Let\'s see if he gets it in Baltimore.

One note: IF Baffert enters LAL in the Preakness, bet the mortgage on him.  That will mean the horse did not have any physical setbacks and given the significant bumpings he took, it was a miracle that he was still in contention during the stretch run.

[TGJB]

Either that or bumping with a mile to go matters less than people think.

[big18741]

Surprised Yawanna Twist isn\'t mentioned as one of the possibles for Baltimore.

Bushwhacked could be interesting if he improved first time going two turns in the Lexington.First couple dirt runs at GP were fine.Posse on top but the bottom is where he\'d get the stamina.I like him best of these new shooters:

A Little Warm
Caracortado
Aikenite
Pleasant Prince
Hurricane Ike
Schoolyard Dreams

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

You\'ve said this more than once here, but I assume you have watched the replay?

There is \"bumping\", of which the effect might be over-rated.

But then there is \"BUMPING\", as in sent to the rail twice in a 20 horse pack, like what happened to Lookin at Lucky.  Hard to believe you watched that and don\'t think he was affected much.

[nyc1347]

Super Saver is lightly raced this year and has now jumped to a new level.  Horses who win derby day are pretty notorious for running well on preakness day.  I wouldnt throw him out at all.

[covelj70]

NYC,

Not to be nitpicky but you said he was too slow to win in your derby analysis and now after one perfect trip in the derby he\'s not worth taking a stand against in the preakness?

[Ill-bred]

I cannot wait to bet against SS in the Preakness. Perfect trip winner in all respects plus he benefitted from Calvin\'s Churchill magic and troubled trips for Ice Box, Paddy, and Lucky.

[nyc1347]

My analysis was based on the idea that another horse would more than likely set a new top running faster already (or even pair in the case of DMC) and it be good enough to win the race. SS did have a perfect trip but also set a new top effort.  

Going forward into the Preakness race we know that SS has shown this improvement, is lightly raced and horses that have won the Derby going into the Preakness run very well.  Even if we expect a slight regression back to the 2 level SS will not be running against horses who have shown faster figures such as NP, LAL, AL, etc.  The preakness is essentially a softer spot for SS and to me this is in no way a reason to toss him in the Preakness.  If we take the last 10 years only 2 derby horses who have won did not finish in the top 3 at Pimlico.  

1.  The Barbaro incident

2.  Monarchos who showed a classic O-X-O-X pattern.

I am not saying that SS will win cause I dont know who else will be entered but he is a must use in the Preakness imo looking ahead.  With the upcoming softer spots he will have a decent chance at the triple crown.