Derby Reflections / Moving Forward

[moosepalm]

Pure guess, but, I\'d bet that if you polled knowledgeable handicappers a day or two before the race, the majority of them would have had projected SS\'s odds to be low double digits.  8-1 is a pretty square price, and we\'d all take that ten times out of ten, but, he was the second betting favorite, and those who have the ability to look at this objectively could probably make a case that there were underlay elements to his price.  I personally thought all the horses were underlays, but, if I can get an 8-1 shot home, you can call it, and me, anything you want.

[jack72906]

I have to agree that if we run the race 10 more times the idea of SS winning only once is a  bit absurd.

I keyed him for the following reasons:

-Post Position
-Borel
-17% chance to run a new top based on having only 2 preps.
-Had a win at CD
-Trained well in the slop
-Ranked number 1 is Bris 2/3 CMB....7 of the last 8 Derby winners were ranked in the Top 3 in this category. 2nd this year was Dublin who I tossed because he\'s quirky and he drew way outside and MI who I used but IMO had too many lengths to make up.(Giacomo not figured into the percentages)


If we rewind the race and everything stays the same I still don\'t see how he doesn\'t win it at least 3 or 4 more times. Yes, IB was compromised and he may have been the best horse on Saturday, but if we run the race 10 more times how many more times will he find trouble? In a 20 horse field, probably a lot. Same could be said for LAL who finds trouble in every race.

[Michael D.]

Super Saver offered good value.

SS paid $51.20 in pool 2 future wagering. Factoring in Borel and the stakes record win over the course, $51.20 was a good price. You did, of course, have the risk of a race out into the future, but that is irrelevant because every horse had that risk. As the 9th choice in the betting, SS was an overlay.

SS paid $73 in pool 3 future wagering. That pool closed after the Tam race, and you did have some distance risk. After a close review of that race, however, SS\'s inability to change leads properly was a factor in the defeat, and Borel had already  shown an ability to correct that problem (watch the Champagne and  2 yr old CD race). Super Saver offered good value as 12 other colts took more money.

SS paid $56.50 as part of the Oaks/Derby double, which was an overlay. Evening Jewel ran huge in that race, better than expected, but no other horse had a prayer of beating Blind Luck that day.

On Derby day, the exacta with the 6th choice paid $152.40, the tri paid $2,337, and the super paid $202,569. Overlay? Underlay? Reasonable people could disagree there. The tri and super look good to me.

SS was 8-1 in the final win pool. He wound up taking a decent  amount of money from casual fans who are now in love with Calvin Borel (and 100k from one very lucky dude). Reasonable people can argue over the value here. Personally, I think the horse wins this race at least 20% of the time, so I wouldn\'t call it an underlay, but there was significant trouble behind SS, and if I had keyed one of the tough luck horses, I might feel different. Do note, however, that many people handicapped SS\'s dream trip before the race. This was not 100% luck. One could also argue that SS did the real running when the race counted, and the horses that sucked up behind him were not as impressive, even with the trouble, though those arguments are usually filled with holes.

Overall, Super Saver offered value, though the $18 win price was not the best place to find it.

Going forward, it will now be very difficult to find good value on SS, as the Derby winner rarely offers good value in subsequent races; too many people saw the win. Borel up will only hurt the price further.

[miff]

With the trip SS had, he would win that same race several times, without that trip he might never win.


mike

[Lost Cause]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With the trip SS had, he would win that same race
> several times, without that trip he might never
> win.
>
>
> mike


I agree there..For me it was all about trips/running style with SS..The question was could he rate and finish behind the tiring speed.  If I knew that he could rate and finish he would have probably been a key for me.  Without knowing that I could not take a stand on him.

Gotta give it to Borel though..Most jocks would have swung outside of Nobles Promise around the turn and into the stretch but instead he squeezes up inside of him to save more ground..They guy is still one of the most fearless jocks I have ever seen..

[Silver Charm]

> Gotta give it to Borel though..Most jocks would
> have swung outside of Nobles Promise around the
> turn and into the stretch but instead he squeezes
> up inside of him to save more ground..

Not most but try 10 out of 10. That move was a little mind boggling but it just shows how conscience he is to sace ground and stay near the rail. I really am not sure how much ground he saved there and he also ran the risk of NP coming over and causing him to be checked.

But for Borel it did not matter because that is the trip HE WANTS.....

[sekrah]

His trip was forecasted by me and many others.


http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,58918,58949#msg-58949

That first turn Super Saver will be 3-5 lengths off the lead and hugging the rail. He\'s already got the field beat right there. If nothing horrible happens the rest of the way he wins the race.

Not a lot horrible can happy when only 3-4 horses are in front of you and you are sitting where nobody else will go.   The trip was very predictable IMO.

[covelj70]

Sekrah,

Can you please try to take yourself a little less seriously.  It\'s getting very old already having you tell us all how much of a genius you are.

Alot of us hit the race, good for us, now let\'s move on.

If the horse breaks a half of a step slow, the trip looks very different, of course he would still be on the rail because Calvin would get him there but he might have had 10 horses in front of him instead of 3.  Maybe he would have been good enough to overcome it maybe not but you don\'t know and neither do any of the rest of us.  

Please don\'t post again on how great you are for having made a great call.  You have congratulated yourself enough already.

When MJ nailed the Big Brown derby 2 years ago, he was super cool about it given that everyone gave him a heard time ahead of time and it made us appreciate him even more.  He never tooted his own horn.

Learn a lesson there and cool it.

[sekrah]

I was cool.  I barely made 3 or 4 posts since the Derby, mostly about handicapping the Preakness.  I didn\'t rub my win into anybody when the opportunity was clearly ripe for me to do so.  I\'m not like that.  But since then I\'ve read a half a dozen posts from people saying how cluelessly lucky anyone who had Super Saver was and how he was this big underlay and how nobody could of seen him A) Rate, B) Get the distance, C) Pass Horses, D) Get the Perfect Trip, or  E) Everyother B.S. reason they could make up to dismiss this horse.   All of those reasons were made up before the Derby and constantly repeated on here and I destroyed them with the facts.  The horse wins, and I am still a clueless rube that got a lucky trip with the underlay?

Laugh-Out-Loud.

[Rich Curtis]

Sekrah wrote:

  \"I was cool.\"

  I thought your bouncing vapor post on the Paceadvantage board was even cooler.

[sekrah]

Oh the humanity. Put me in cuffs and send me to the electric chair for this horrific crime against society.

[covelj70]

Sekrah

Are you kidding me?  You made 3 posts on this thread alone about how you made the SS call ahead of time and your whole tone that anyone who doubted you or who didn\'t think it was a lock is dumd is very annoying.

Take a reality check man.  Literally, 3 posts on this thread alone let alone all of the other posts on the other threads about your amazing call on the 2nd betting choice in the race.

I am annoyed with you and I took a boatload of dough out of the race, I can\'t imagine how grating you are for people that understandably went in another direction.

You made a good call on the race.  I am sincerlely pumped for you.  It\'s very cool.

You don\'t need to remind us anymore about how smart you are.  We got it.

[sekrah]

Umm.. A thread sparks up 3 days after the race telling Super Saver backers how much of an underlay he was, and I respond to it with the facts and that\'s me  bragging?  

Please, find another post, within 3 days after the race, where I bragged or rubbed in my win.   Find an \"I told you so.\".  The race was over.  I apologized for been vigorous during the days leading up tot he race.  It was a contentious week with an exciting field to wager.  We had a good back and forth arguments all week long.    We had all moved on to the next thing.  Then this.

The reasoning SS was an underlay?  He got a perfect trip to win this race.  Maybe. Besides being the fastest horse in the race for the distance, that lucky, perfect trip was extremely easy to predict and I did so on April 28th.  

I do not apologize for responding to false information with the facts.

[bellsbendboy]

Sekrah

You just posted that Super Saver\'s perfect trip was \"easy to predict\".

Are you kidding?  A twenty horse field in a quagmire. Please give it a rest! bbb

[sekrah]

I said Calvin will beat the 3 horses to the inside of him to the rail and sit off pace with a 1w in the first turn.   Wow.. Yea, that\'s really going out onto the limb there.  How could that possibly, EVER happen?  

Anyone who thought anything else than that was more likely to happen into the first turn seriously wasn\'t paying attention Derby week.

Calvin is in that catbird seat in the first turn 7 or 8 out of 10 times.