I think with as closely matched as many of these are, and being a slow bunch overall when compared to year\'s past, and with no true pace or front runner, saying anyone is a toss from this race with confidence is pretty tough to do. I think the trip these horses get is going to have a lot to do with who winds up finishing where.
Aikenite has run just as fast as SS, was pretty fast as a 2 yr old and could definitely hit the board if he handles the distance. I think he has more of mid distance pedigree than anything else, but he starts on the rail and will stay there until he gives it up. Saving ground is going to help him.
Schoolyard Dreams ran a 4 as a 2 year old, so he still has room for development. His Wood race is a complete toss as he had a minor illness. Take that out and look at his line and I would say he is very likely to run a new top. He\'s been working very fast for this, but had a pretty slow gallop out after his last work. Just once this year I wish a 3 yr old horse would make it easy on me and work fast, relatively far AND gallop out strongly. Has stamina on top but a sprinter\'s pedigree on the bottom. He drew well though and should be able to get a forward position and save ground, which will help him extend his distance capabilities.
I think the connections of Pleasant Prince blew it by trying to rush this horse into getting enough earnings for the derby. Now this will be his 3rd race in 5 weeks and he ran a new lifetime top in the race before that. He\'s already developed a lot from his 2 year old number and he may not get the pace to set up his late run either. So I don\'t think a new top is likely, but if he runs back to his prior top or comes close to it somehow then he will hit the board.
Northern Giant looks slow, but he drew well and has some early lick. This is Lukas\' other horse here, and I think we are going to see some good ole\' fashioned race riding. I don\'t think there is a chance that they let SS get an easy front running, inside trip.
Ywanna Twist comes into this as the fastest horse, but he\'s another one that has more of a middle distance pedigree. But he\'s fresh, fast, and I remember when his grandpa beat me out of cashing in the 1995 Preakness. If he wants the lead I think he can get it.
I don\'t think Jackson Bend really wants to go this far. He\'s never won a race outside of Florida and hasn\'t developed at all since his 2 yr old campaign, neither of which are positives. I don\'t think he cared for the slop at Churchill, and it didn\'t take much trouble to throw him completely off his game. But he should be able to get a forward position in the race, as forward as he wants to be. And he fired a very fast, bullet 4F workout after the derby with a strong gallop out, so I don\'t think he expended too much energy in the race. He could run his best race this year and while I don\'t think he will win at the price I can\'t see tossing him.
LAL ran a pretty remarkable race in the derby. He\'s won 3 grade 1 races and the only other horse that\'s even won one is Super Saver. His first race on dirt was a 3/4, and he had trouble. He\'s shown a lot of heart in almost every race, which is more than you can say for many of these. I don\'t like how Baffert isn\'t at least blowing this guy out though before the race. He usually works his horses pretty hard. I know the horse has to be dead fit, and I\'m not saying a work would do anything to move him forward. It\'s just when I know how this trainer usually operates, any deviation from the norm is something to pay attention to. He could win this race outright, or he could fade and miss the board altogether if he is a tired a horse. And I have heard he looks neutral in his gallops. Very, very tough read.
I\'m of the opinion that SS got a dream trip in the derby, is going to be over bet in this race and offers no value whatsoever. Even after getting the trip he got, which he earned, he still didn\'t exactly blow this field away. I don\'t think he\'s got a lot of room for error, and I think he\'s got a big bullseye squarely on his back. No way he gets to the inside without having to work hard for it early or dropping back. Calvin is pretty aggressive out of the gate, and I am assuming he is going to break sharp and come out strong. There\'s a couple inside him who will do the same, so I think he is going to get a 3w trip or have to expend a lot of early energy not to. But he\'s still likely to run well and is one of the fastest in the race. He also worked really well, with a double gallop out of two 1/8ths, both in 12 change, which would seem to indicate that the derby didn\'t empty the tank and may have even moved him forward.
Caracortado had just as much trouble in the SA derby as Lucky did. He got stopped cold but didn\'t recover as well. Now he comes into this with good rest, a good 2 year old foundation and has every right to improve. But he\'s another that has more of a middle distance pedigree. I also didn\'t like the way he couldn\'t make up any ground in the San Felipe. I know there was no early pace to run at, but watch the way Interactif still unleashed a run. I think this guy isn\'t nearly as good as some people think he is. But he is fresh and could hit the board.
IMP Paddy was hurt by the draw. I would be willing to bet that with a clean break this guy is going to come out running and try to get in front of SS heading into the first turn. I think they are going to see if SS can pass them in the stretch, rather than the other way around. Kent knows Pimlico as well as anyone and he knows you have to save ground and there is not much early speed in this race. I wouldn\'t be surprised to see him on the lead here, and then it just comes down to how fast does he have to go. I didn\'t see any major trouble for him the KD, but I did see more than anything I have read anywhere. Near the end of the backstretch he ran right up on the heels of MI and lost momentum, came out, came back in and got stuck down inside when SC began to tire, he then steadied behind Conv as he tired, came out, gathered momentum and then had to check again just before the 1/8th pole. After that he didn\'t have much left, and it almost seemed as KD had so much mud on his goggles that he couldn\'t see anything (watch the replay around the 1/16th pole) and didn\'t ride him too hard after that. He wound up getting nipped for second, but Paddy then went right by SS on the gallop out. A straight read of his sheet says a new top is unlikely here. But I\'ve been told he looks like a monster on the track during his gallops now. He may run even better. Tough read.
First Dude looks too slow and was hurt by the draw, but he\'s had trouble his last two races and one of them was on Poly. If you go back to his race in Feb he missed to Fly Down by a head. So if you give him credit for trouble in the FL Derby, and throw out his race on Poly, he could do almost anything here. I wouldn\'t think he could win, but he could hit the board and will be a price.
As I\'ve said on he board, Dublin seems like a complete head case to me. Not sure if Gomez is going to be answer. I also think he was really hurt by the draw. But on paper he\'s fast enough to contend, or even win. I don\'t think that is likely, but I can\'t toss him with confidence.
So how is a guy supposed to bet this stuff? SS will be over bet, LAL will be over bet, Paddy is going to have to work for it, you can make a case for almost every other horse equally after those three.
I think to bet this race you have to find some value by tossing either SS, LAL or Paddy from the tri and betting it strong, or keying all three of them in first and hope for the best by using the all button in 2nd, 3rd, 4th and hoping a real bomber or two comes in. Trouble is I think a lot of people are going to use the all button.
I\'m still hoping to get some solid info on LAL, as I think knowing his true condition is the key to making money in this race.
