Preakness by yours truly =) - You know what time it is?!

[miff]

LAL looks to have run a top in the Preakness.Nice trip and ride by Martin Garcia, finishing stronly.Beyer in at 102 and with ground the fig looks like app neg -1/2.Trip handicappers murdered the price on LAL after they showed LAL\'s derby debacle all week long.

First Dude,big sucker,ran lights out.Jackson Bend workmanlike again.Tricky\'s Twist ran well.

Dublin,kinda the \"trip\" horse(Gomez again) on this occasion, making a fairly severe right turn from the gate,costing a few lenghts.Sideways moves on straightaways not calculated in ground loss, I believe, but thats why you have to watch races(Icebox another sideways case and possible winner with any type of clear late run in the derby)

SS did not get the perfect trip and was exposed as the common slug I thought he was going into the derby.The SS weight stuff all bull and only an issue because he lost. TAP and co went into the Preakness fairly confident with the way SS was doing physically.TAP was aware and respectful though of the \"silent\" bounce, which appeared to surface.

Two weeks rest an excuse for SS?? The winner,third and 5th,6th place runners all ran ok with 2 weeks.

NYRA ill with the Belmont coming up ho-hum with very little buzz.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"TAP and co went into the Preakness fairly confident with the way SS was doing physically.TAP was aware and respectful though of the \'silent\' bounce, which appeared to surface.\"

 I\'m curious about your source for this, Miff, as well as your source for your pre-Derby post about the morale in the TAP barn. The reason I ask is that your style in these posts resembles the style Bob Woodward uses in those near-instant insider histories he writes shortly after big events. It\'s a controversial style. Woodward gets away with it because he\'s Woodward.

[miff]

Rich,

Don\'t know what you are referring to,hundreds of people know TAP and his team and speak to them very often, I\'m just one. No deep throat stuff,just people talking about the game.If there was something that they did not want known, no one would hear it.

Here are TAP\'s own words after the race, he also expressed the same during the week leading up to the race.

TAP:

\"Sometimes you can look at all the signs on the outside and while he’s eating well and he’s training well and acts enthusiastic and energetic, someone asked me when do you know if two weeks is enough time?” he said.

“Really, it’s at about the three-eighths pole in the race when you really know. He ran well up to that point and when Calvin called on him for a response at that point he didn’t have that extra gear on the day. It’s not only the two weeks from the Derby to the Preakness, but it was also back in three weeks off the Arkansas Derby. So he had two very good races close together. It probably wasn’t enough time for him to improve and put forth another top race.”

[Rich Curtis]

Miff,

Here\'s an example. Before the Derby, you posted the following:

\"TAP barn devastated by what they felt was a great chance in Esky. Bad karma may be with TAP runners and plan to toss all out of most slots esp SS.\"

Meanwhile, one could read news reports that discussed what a great job the imperturbable TAP was doing keeping everything light and happy around the barn after Esky was pulled.

Does this sort of conflict matter? Not to me. You can\'t even enter a racetrack without hearing a hundred people trying to make you think they have some sort of insider access to racing people. It\'s kind of a racetrack currency that some people use as a replacement for the real thing.

It wouldn\'t bother me a bit if I could never hear another word of this \"inside stuff\" in my life. Everybody who goes to racetracks stumbles over this stuff--in large part because half the people who go to racetracks now are insiders.

But I think it might be a good idea if you were more clear about where you got this stuff--DRF, hot walker, etc. Just in case there is someone out there who makes the mistake of caring about this crap.

[nyc1347]

I like the idea of the structure but a HUGE key wagering a race where a horse sticks out for a show at some kind of value is to analyze the money in the show pools on each horse and project an idea of what the payout will be.  THere are many times where a horse who is a favorite isnt even a favorite in the show pool.  If there was a situation that came up where the horse i liked in the race is 5 to 1 but hes a favorite in the show pool i obviously stay away and wait for a better opportunity for a bigger show bet.  Id just go with a small win instead or just stay away completely.  The money in that show pool is way overlooked by many people and even though nothing is exact you can still get a great idea of who the faves are in that pool.  

For bigger races I dont need to worry about that bc the ML is mostly king with the public.  If the ML on Deans Kitten in the Derby was 3 to 1 instead of 50 to 1 I guarantee people wouldve bet the horse muuuuuuch more... the general public are suckers for it and thats where we thrive as thorograph players for value.  I mean LAL paid almost DOUBLE the money to show bc the public falls victim to the sob stories on NBC about Borels derby ride, Pletchers 1st derby, etc. and think the horse will get at least 3rd for \"easy money\".. I see it myself everyday especially favorites..  people are clueless. Its redonkulous!  But i love it!

Bartender asked me the other day right after the race why i liked JB and i said this exactly \"He had an on off on off pattern this year and with 6 weeks off his last top 3yo effort he was in line to his 2yo career top race which he had a good shot of getting thru today (no joke i really said this)\".  And he was like \"OOOOK i see you play horses a lot\". He didnt know what to say haha I mean people have NO idea the powerful information we have.  Its a great feeling!

[miff]

Rich,

Did toss SS derby/preak,thought he was a slug, was wrong by one race, regardless of what anyone in the TAP camp said.Suggest you form your opinions and worry less about who knows what or whom.

No less than 3 people connected to Schoolyard Dream touted their horse  all over NY going into the Preakness. Had to be a stone sucker to use this one race,optical illusion fraud.Inside information,please!


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"Did toss SS derby/preak,thought he was a slug, was wrong by one race, regardless of what anyone in the TAP camp said.Suggest you form your opinions and worry less about who knows what or whom.\"

I have no interest whatsoever in assessing your handicapping opinions, Miff. This is a message board. Everybody is ####ing great. My point was entirely about the incessant hints I see about inside information that I consider to be utterly worthless. And you are not the only person I\'m talking about. Some of the comments I\'ve read from others about the inner workings of the Baffert camp are so on-their-face idiotic that they threaten to blow the sun right out of the sky.

Now regarding Super Saver being a \"slug\": Miff: Super Saver is so much better at his job than most/all of us are at ours that it\'s ridiculous. And the same goes for Dublin and LAL and the other horses who come in for ridicule at the hands of people who like to use message boards to take nasty shots at the horses who lay it on the line on human command.

[miff]

Rich,

Last post,my opinion on SS is mine, don\'t read it if you don\'t like it. As far as myself or others talking \"inside\"stuff that you object to, don\'t read it.The insights posted by someone re Baffy\'s MO on LAL was very perceptive, even though I did not agree.

You sound like someone getting waxed at the windows and misguiding your frustrations.

Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"Last post,my opinion on SS is mine, don\'t read it if you don\'t like it.\"

Oh, OK. If I dislike something you have written, I will go back and unread it.

\"You sound like someone getting waxed at the windows and misguiding your frustrations.\"

Well, this is a tough game and I am not wanting for wax. But do you know what I do to relieve my frustrations after I get waxed? I go outside and walk around the block. And I keep on walking around the block until I hear a successful bettor call a Derby winner a \"pig\" or a \"slug.\" Then I tell the successful bettor to knock it off. Works wonders for me.