Was there anyway to see that big negative number for LAL?

[covelj70]

I threw Lookin at Lucky out on top in the Preakness.

Is there any angle that someone could have seen before the race that said that LAL would jump up so huge like that?

I had posted that data that I went back and dug up from the Preakness archives about how there were 8 horses that ran big (relative to their TG figs) in the Preakness after having bounced in the Derby and Baffert had 2 of those 8 but I didn\'t see this big move up coming.

I could see the argument for getting back to the 0 but not a 2 negative?

Thoughts?

[APny]

If you look at the whole card there are at least a dozen horses who ran big new tops that didn\'t figure to.  I have no idea why this may be but it was definitely a tough day to figure out.

[magicnight]

It doesn\'t show up on the replay, but Garcia was dangling a slice of crispy, perfect bacon about a foot in front of LAL\'s schnozzle. QED.

[nyc1347]

after LAL and NP ran i had them being explosive next time out.  both horses had terrible trouble the next start and then the 3rd race was that disaster race on the slop on derby day with abnormal fractions going far.  when LAL finally had normal conditions he fired great.  NP should do that same in his next start imo.

[magicnight]

\"when LAL finally had normal conditions he fired great. NP should do that same in his next start imo.\"

Do you consider the Ascot lawn against some of the best milers in Europe \"normal conditions\"?

[marcus]

Talk about running the racing headlines gambit or gauntlet as the case may be -  a veritable tale of two cities from VLT\'s to BLT\'s . Another mild surprise and interesting race on the Day to note imo was the Dixie where two horses ran better figures than the winner   .

[nyc1347]

if that is where NP is headed then NOOOO lol  i havent read anything about his next start but i was assuming he would be running on dirt here in the states

[mjellish]

It\'s always easier to say this with the benefit of hindsight, but here\'s my two cents.

Lucky ran more or less a zero in the Rebel, which was his first race on dirt and his first race as a 3 year old.  That was off a layoff and only a 3 pt top compared to his juvenile top, so it was reasonable to expect he could improve off that.  He then had a troubled trip on the lint at SA and even more troubled trip over the slop at Churchill.  So I suppose if a capper could have looked beyond those two efforts as being more non-representative of Lucky\'s form, the forward move in the Preakness could have been anticipated.

That\'s kind of how I looked at Lucky.  I made him the most likely winner of the Preakness right after the Derby and private messaged that to a few people here on the board, but Baffert\'s deviation from the norm, the low odds and the possibility that Lucky may be tired and throw in a clunker tempered my enthusiasm enough to make me more or less pass the race other than a $252 obligatory Triple Crown race bet.  IMO this horse is better on dirt and Baffert would do well to get him out of CA after a freshening.  

Jerry has the Preakness performing pretty fast but I think he has it right considering the ground loss, and the forward move makes perfect sense for a 3 year old horse like Lucky.

[Silver Charm]

I do not know enough about making figures to argue with this one. Seems quick but maybe he was poised to pop a big one on Derby Day then he drew the one hole and the track came up wet. Which made him burnt toast. The kind you throw out.

But I will say this horse has some kind of RESILIENCE to him. The kind that can not be quantified on a SHEET unless somebody looks at the T\' or tu\'s and then sees a TOP on two weeks.

This horse might be somebody people should start getting excited about for the late summer and fall races.

[nyc1347]

I definitely agree to that Silver with the summer coming up!   Might sound crazy but there seem to be HUGE similarities between Zenyatta, Blind Luck, and Looking at Lucky with those tremendous closing kicks!  They also have come from Cali and run Poly..  going to be waiting in anticipation for the 3 to run again!  Love it!

[Silver Charm]

Let me qualify my slop remark. I did not intend for it to mean he could not handle it. Actually he did pretty well. What it meant from the one hole was a Mine That Bird type trip (last-to-first) in the slop and that means having to plow through a lot.

Actually the Preakness trip is his best style even though Baffert had conditioned him for the Derby to come from well off. Just not from nearly last and that is what the one hole did to him.

Its early but if these horses stay sound the BC Classic will be pretty dam good. Even the Arson Squads, Mine That Birds and Summer Birds can not be discounted at CD. They have proven to like it also.

[nyc1347]

Quality Road ran a NEGATIVE 7.5! WHO in the world would u get to compete with THAT?   If QR BOUNCED FIVE POINTS he would still be there to win LOL!!! that REDONKULOUS!  Hes a MONSTER based on the thorographs and last out!

[Silver Charm]

Yes VERY excited to see him on Met Day and hopefully not 9 other NY Bred races on the card.

If the real QR shows up and stays sound he will be a BEAST.

[mjellish]

I would be willing to bet a fair amount against QR at 1 1/4 at Churchill.  Don\'t care one bit about -7.5.  I am fairly certain he doesn\'t want to go that far and will get beat by good horses that do.

[alm]

This is a very interesting series of posts, in that it reveals both the strength and weakness of the sheet approach.  

First, there is no doubt that the science of the speed number is valid...it is probably the single best way of dissecting information about a horse and a race.  

Second, a LOT of people bet LAL in the Preakness...based on something, but not on the numbers.  He was clearly a \'go to\' horse, based upon his difficult trip in the Derby. The betting action was undeniable...even the idiots on TV made much of it.

So there are aspects to handicapping that go beyond speed and trip adjusted science.  Personally I regard handicapping as more of an art than a science, but that\'s me.