Fly Down - Belmont Thoughts

[mjellish]

This may be a little premature, but I thought I would start a Belmont thread.

I am starting to really like Fly Down\'s chances in the Belmont.  I don\'t have his sheet in front of me, but I\'ve watched the replay of the Dwyer a couple of times now and it looks to me like this horse has really come into his own. Mineshaft/AP Indy over a Fly So Free mare says he should handle the 1 1/2 as good or better than anyone else in this field. He relaxes beautifully early, which is a must for this race.  There\'s not a lot of early lick in this race on paper.  First Dude and Game on Dude figure to set the early fractions.  Fly Down has enough tactical speed to stay close and be mid pack for the early going.  I also liked his 3 year old debut at Gulfstream earlier this year, in which he got up to nip First Dude after rallying wide on the turn.  He\'s had 3 1 1/8th races leading up to this and will come into the race off a break through win and 4 weeks rest.  With the money that is going to come down on Ice Box and First Dude I figure this guy is also going to offer some value.  Drosselmeyer isn\'t really bred to get the distance, but he runs like he is going to get it.  He probably plods along and hangs on for his usual piece.  Ice Box comes in with good spacing and a nice work the other day at Saratoga.  I still wonder why no one seems to ask Zito about why IB continues to fail to change leads in the stretch.

Doesn\'t exactly look like a stellar field.  I don\'t see any Summer Bird\'s or Dunkirks like last year.  As it stands right now I think Fly Down will be a fantastic key horse to set up a pretty easy way to bet this race.

[alm]

This is very similar to the thought I posted about Fly Down a couple of days ago...and a couple of people agreed at that time...leading me to wonder whether the idea is so obvious that Fly Down won\'t provide any value.

Comment if you will on the New Madrid angle that seems to be coming into play.  He\'s been prepped for the Belmont through the recent grass effort...he was allowed to rip through the early part of that race, which I thought was odd at the time, but realize now that it was only a workout.

[mjellish]

New Madrid won\'t run in the Belmont.

As far as value goes in the Belmont.  If you figure IB to come in at say 5/2, and First Dude to be just behind that.  I think you get 4-1 or 9/2 on Fly Down.  That\'s not bad on a horse that I feel is the most likely winner.  Don\'t know what the cold exacta of FD/IB would pay, but let\'s say it\'s $35-$45.  That\'s not bad either.  If you figure the Preakness took something out of First Dude, that also puts some value into the EX or the Tri with horses like Spangled Star, Stay Put, Drosselmeyer and Stately Victor.  Stay Put doesn\'t figure there numbers wise, but that was a hell of work he just put in.  Went 6F in just under 114, got hi last 1/8th in 11 and change, galloped out another 1/8th in 14 and another 1/8th in 14 to the mile.  That\'s a sign of a horse that is definately sitting on a big one in my opinion.  Not sure if gets it in the Belmont, but he\'s going to be a pretty big price.

If everything holds true to form from now up through the race I think the Belmont is the best betting race of the TC sequence this year.

[Michael D.]

mostly agree Michael. I like Fly Down. not expecting more than 4-1 though with Johnny V up.

Stay Put interests me a bit. comes in with 3\'s and a plodding style, not exactly the best look for this race, but I like Broken Vow over D Band, and the sheet might suggest a new top on the stretch-out. nice 5 week timing.

this does look like a pretty weak field.

[jbelfior]

The concern with Fly Down is that he runs hard and is not a big colt. The Dwyer was the target and I never like coming back with Zito tops off of short rest, especially with his spring 3 yos.

As for FD....well here I go again....no wedding, no wake. The time was last week at 23-1.....use but never as a key!

Interesting is Game On Dude....nice middle move into a strong pace....nice 6f work over the pro-ride just 10 days later. I prefer the. 1 1/16 prep for the Belmont ....see  bombs such as Sarava, DaTara.

Distance challenged crop all vulnerable to bounces in their next start. FD may be the next to prove this point.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[alm]

If I get 4-1 or better on him I am likely to bet him straight and be happy with the outcome if he wins.

As for Margolis\' horse, does he have a history in races of this type?  The last direct information I had on him and his various partnerships was that he pretty much was looking for early developing horses to race and sell if he could.  Not a lot of experience taking horses long.

[nyc1347]

With FD\'s last race being huge it will catch the public eye... there is no one else other than IB that sticks out so much.. i can picture a similar situation like the Preakness where we see co-favs at 2 to 1.. theres no one else \"on paper\" to the public to wager on unless your taking a stab so I cant imagine the odds being anything more than around that area even with so much money in the pool.  Wouldnt be surprised if FD went off the fave since he won last out compared to IB getting second place.  No value on top but def underneath especially if FD bounces.

[Leamas57]

I think FD is one of most talented horses I have seen from this crop of 3yrs outside of Esky, and perhaps, Endorsement, who is very athletic and may get stronger later.

Yes, that was a grueling effort from FD, but this big horse has a long, easy stride, and if can run back in three weeks (I know, big IF) and conserve some energy, he will be very tough to beat. Let\'s not forget that he went 1 3/16ths from the front and almost held on.

Leamas

[mjellish]

Think we need to keep our FD\'s straight.  First Dude, Fly Down.

[Beginner]

beat me to it - I was getting confused...

[nyc1347]

haha i said FD bc thats what the thread topic is but im referring to fly down

[sekrah]

Fly Down looks like a standout to me as well.  I\'ll wait for the entries though.

NYC - Fly Down is not going off at 2-1.   Ice Box will be a very solid favorite.   Fly Down will go off at 7/2 or higher IMO.

First Dude will get money and has a chance to be 2nd choice.

[MonmouthGuy]

I agree with all of your thoughts, but remember that Charitable Man looked just as good both sheetwise and visually coming into this race last year off the same prep.

[jbelfior]

Mike:

I was actually referring to First Dude. While I agree with those who are impressed with First Dude\'s Preakness, I am not convinced. Yes, he may have turned the corner at Pimlico and yes he may turn out to be the cream of this crop. However he may have received help from a track bias that, IMO, was heavily favoring speed.

The other consideration besides Game on Dude (who I will not shorten to GOD) may be Stately Victor. We already have P O\'Prado and 1st Dude running well out of the Blue Grass and perhaps SV simply hated the slop. Or bounced? Long striding colt certainly fits with this bunch.

 
Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Leamas57]

Thanks. Like Jeff Bridges in The Big Lebowski, I will refer to him as \"The Dude\" or \"Dude.\"

Leamas