Belmont Pedigree

[jbelfior]

Interesting that 5 of last 7 Belmont winners were directly sired by either Derby, Belmont or BC Classic winners. The others were Afleet Alex and Jazil (sire Seeking the Gold was a BC Classic runner-up.)

Just thought I would mention it.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[sekrah]

So who qualifies?   I\'ll toss in other sires who\'ve won G1\'s at 10f or longer.


New Madrid (Rock Hard Ten, Big Cap)
Game On Dude (Awesome Again, BC Classic)
Stately Victor (Ghostzapper, BC Classic)
Fly Down (Mineshaft, JCGC & Suburban)

Tosses

First Dude (Stephen Got Even)
Stay Put (Broken Vow)
Uptowncharlybrown (Limehouse)
Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska)
Ice Box (Pulpit, who was retired after getting hurt in the Derby hasn\'t produced any classic winners.  His best 2 runners, Pyro and Essence of Dubai were best at a mile)
Make Music For Me (Bernstein)
Drosselmeyer (Distorted Humor)
Spangled Star (Distorted Humor)



I don\'t see how anyone doesn\'t make Fly Down the key.  Even at 3-1, this will be an extremely large wager for me in 2 weeks.

[jbelfior]

New Madrid probably not going.  Box the other 3 sit back and enjoy!

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[nyc1347]

Ice Box will only have run twice in 12 weeks going into the Belmont and they are both his best efforts of his career.  Hes in top form and the spacing is perfect.  You guys are leaving him completely out/tossing him?

[MO]

no lead changes last 2 races. potential disaster.

[albany]

Yes, his failure to change leads is a concern. Luckily for his connections, Ice Box appears to be better on a single lead than most of the others do when they change leads on cue. His little jaunt down the Derby stretch seems to confirm this observation.

[big18741]

Pedigree only Ice Box looks better than his stablemate to get the 12f\'s.

Mineshaft has a handful of graded winners at 9f:

Casino Drive
Coal Play
Cool Coal Man
Discreetly Mine

I know at least three of those four tried stretching out past 9f\'s and ran poorly.

Fly Down would be the other 9f graded winner.

Dam Sire Fly So Free produced Captain Steve a 10f winner in the Dubai World Cup vs a suspect bunch.He was a distant 3rd behind Tiznow and Giants Causeway in the 10f BC Classic.

Free Vacation was a very good distance grass filly in Canada winning multiple 12f races.Those two are Fly So Free\'s only progeny stretching out past 9f\'s.

Pulpit obviously with a much larger sample than Mineshaft produced these stakes horses stretching out past 9f\'s:

Church Service hit the board 6x going 12f\'s-was 2nd in the BC Marathon.

Ice Box 2nd in the Derby.

Wend won at 10f\'s beating some tough distance turf mares Film Maker and Wonder Again.

Melhor Ainda was 2nd at 10f to the very good Japanese filly in the American
Oaks.

Essence of Dubai won the UAE Derby(10f\'s then)beating Total Impact who would go on to later win the Hollywood Gold Cup at 10f\'s.

Corinthian won at 9.5f\'s at GP.


Ice Box stamina comes from the bottom with Belmont winning(solid 2:26 and change) Tabasco Cat the damsire.

The mother of Ice Box Spice Island won stakes at 11 and 12f\'s on the grass.

Other Tabasco Cat progeny include:

Island Sand 10f winner of the Del Cap.
Host 11f winner on grass and on the board at 12 and 13f\'s
Raylene 11f winner in Canada on grass.
Freefourinternet 10f Hawthorne Gold Cup winner vs Perfect Drift.

[jbelfior]

If Ice Box beats me at 2-1 then so be it. The flow of the race will not be in his favor and his Derby close on the wrong lead only fortifies the theory that this is a distance challenged crop.
I\'ll take 10-1 or better on Baffert\'s colt.

Good Luck,
Joe B.