I've never had so little conviction ahead of a classic race

[covelj70]

Heavan knows I have been wrong before about which horse I liked ahead of one of the classic races but I can\'t remember a Classic race where I had so little conviction of who I liked a few days out from the race.

I don\'t like any of these really.  I have big issues with all of them.

In the absence of TG figs (which I am in desperate need of to help me sort this thing out) here are my very muddled thoughts

Ice Box - obviously has issues given that he won\'t switch leads like he used to but will those issues matter on Sat? not necessarily.  if he can hold it together, he\'s got a chance but how do I play a heavy fav who has obvious physical issues

Fly Down - wise guy horse who looked good beating no one in the Dywer and before that threw in a clunker in La Derby.  I do like that he beat First Dude in the GP Allowance.  I also don\'t think he has the bottom side pedigree to get 1.5.  

First Dude - likely a bounce candidate coming off the big effort 3 weeks ago.  They also won\'t let him get away with an easy lead.  D\'Tara got away with that because no one gave him a chance but everyone is aware of the danger of letting FD get away so he won\'t be out there by himself.  Just like Charitable Man last year.  He was suppossed to be out there by himself all the way around and a horse that was suppossed to be a closer was pushing him all the way (and damm near won the race btw)

Drosselmeyer - really has never beat anyone good and is training with bar shoes after suffering a minor foot injury.  I am a believer that even the very very good horses need everything to go their way to win a classic race and this is not a very very good horse (yet) and this minor injury is enough to get me off this one that I wasn\'t that excited about anyway given that he always seems to come out of a race with an excuse but remains the \"hot horse\"

Game on Dude - don\'t know what to make of this one.  Is he fast enough, was last race over the top?  He really hasn\'t beaten anyone either.

Make Music for Me - was interested in this one until I read that he wouldn\'t pick up the bit in his breezes.   That\'s a really bad sign and he\'s likely to go in the wrong direction 2nd on dirt like alot of them do.

Stately Victor - I like him for this race but is this really just a turf horse?  I don\'t think he is but how strongly do I feel about that

Uptown - never beat anyone and even his trainer thinks he has distance limitations which I would agree with

where does this leave me?  someone please help?

[jbelfior]

Cove:
I feel the same way.  I may stick with my original feeling about Baffert\'s colt in the hope that he 1) is over his gate problems and 2) Baffert has turned him around.  I love the Classic pedigree angle (Awesome Again) but is he fast enough?

Can\'t go with First Dude. I wasn\'t smart enough to have him at 23-1 at Pimlico, so why bother now? Perhaps Ice Box wins it despite his issues with lead changes, race flow, etc.

My advice: get Jerry\'s sheets, study, then go to the Belmont archives!

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Actually I think this is a very good betting race for those of us who like exotics, and betting against horses as much as we like betting on them. Of course that conclusion is based on the figures and patterns of the horses, which I realize is antithetical to all the posters here over the last couple of months. I look at silly things like whether a horse is concealed, as opposed to whether he passes horses, has beaten anyone, etc., and whether they look like they are ready to put in a good figure or bounce. Silly stuff.

(Jim, this was not specifically directed at you).

[covelj70]

No worries, it\'s impossible to offend me.  

when you do my job at the place I do it at, there\'s not much more anyone can say that hasn\'t already been said.....lol

maybe once we get the figs (hopefully tomorrow night), this will all become less muddled and we can stop worrying about who has beaten whom....in the meantime, that\'s all I have to go on since I don\'t know the sheets for more than half of these!

I can\'t wait for Sat....that said, usually when I am this excited, bad things happen.

[richiebee]

Covel:

One place where it leaves you is neglecting one entry-- a late entry-- who might
be the \"Boss of K-oss\" in this race. I am not familiar with this one\'s TG #s, but
he comes out from under a shedrow which has done very little wrong -- especially
in stakes-- in the last 5 months.

I think JB laid it out perfectly in today\'s NY Post-- a great betting race
especially with bounce possibilities for the top 3 betting choices. One angle
that was not played up enough in the Post is that \"Uptown\" goes from a woman who
has been an assistant trainer for 26 years to one of the top barns in the US.

Looking forward to the Brooklyn/Belmont double (3 miles and 24 hours of wagering
intrigue); da Brooklyn also looks like an open betting race.

[joekay]

Hey Cove, would you be kind enough to say where you read about MMFM, or expand upon what you have heard about his training.  Thanks. I share your lack of firm conviction about this race, but am trying to make a case for MMFM and SV as value in the \"price\" horses.

[martoon]

By the way JB, awesome ROTW call this week.  I wasn\'t on it as was busy this weekend but that was nailed cold for big money.  Looks like Race of the Week has been heating up lately.

[covelj70]

joekay,

no problem, it was reported in articles on both DRF and bloodhorse that the trainer switched MMFM\'s final work this weekend to the training track from the main track because the \"horse looked a little lost\" and wasn\'t picking up the bit on the main track \"because it is so big.\"  

To me that sounded like a \"dog ate my homework\" kind of thing, it doesn\'t seem like the horse is thriving right now after a reportedly weak 1 mile breeze over the main track and then a switch to the training track for the final breeze.

Does the trainer know they are running the big race on the main track?

[Rich Curtis]

TGJB wrote:

  \"Of course that conclusion is based on the figures and patterns of the horses, which I realize is antithetical to all the posters here over the last couple of months. I look at silly things like whether a horse is concealed, as opposed to whether he passes horses, has beaten anyone, etc., and whether they look like they are ready to put in a good figure or bounce. Silly stuff.\"

 This seems like a good spot for me to plug what I think are by far the two best handicapping books ever written:

 \"Fooled by Randomness\" and \"The Black Swan,\" both written by Nassim Taleb, both magnificent, both handicapping books to their core.

[Silver Charm]

Good to hear the DRF guys are on their game after the Pimlico/Preakness miss on Super Saver.

I know there is a damned if you do damned if you don\'t here but people can do what they want with this info.

What does the undercard look like. I was hearing Gio Ponte has not been exactly kicking his stall door down and was maybe going in the Manhatten

[covelj70]

very much agree Silver, give us the info and let us hang ourselves interpreting it but the media should let it all out there.

undercard looks tremendous

seems like there should be good size field for most of the undercard races and a 12 horse Belmont (especially one that is this wide open) should produce some monster payouts in this 1m pick 4 and 1m pick 6.  

Many will try to understandably single Proviso in the turf race given that she beat males last time out and that Mott is raving about her training which he doesn\'t do as much as other trainers

D\'Funnybone and Eightyfiveinafifty are going to mix it up in the Woody Stephens. If they ding dong with one another up front, that could set up for a bomb.

the Acron is loaded with Amen, Champagne D\'oro, Seeking the Title and a whole bunch of others.

should be awesome

[JimP]

Agree. Great books.

[jack72906]

Not that PP really matters at the marathon distance, but here it is with morning line:

Dave in Dixie   20-1
Spangled Star   30-1
Uptown          10-1
MMFM            10-1
Fly Down        9-2
Ice Box         3-1
Drosselmeyer    12-1
Game on Dude    10-1
Stately Victor  15-1
Stay Put        20-1
First Dude      7-2
Interactif      12-1

Good Luck!

[jbelfior]

You\'re probably right that post position in a mile and a half race does not matter however interesting that post 6 and out is batting 50 percent in mile and a half races at Belmont  in last 12 years.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ROBERT49]

I looked at the betting available on DRF, Equibase, and Brisnet for race 10 on 6/4 at Belmont. None of them show a BROOKLYN/BELMONT double being offered. It has to be available, right? Anybody know for sure? I\'m rooting for last years winner Eldafer to win the Brooklyn.