P4 Ending with Belmont Stakes-- Early Thoughts

[richiebee]

Three wide open races in the sequence at my first glance-- Acorn, True North and
Belmont.

I am thinking that in the Manhattan, Gio Ponti (6/5?) might be a single for me,
now that his quest for Synthetic World dominance has been temporarily put on hold
and he returns to the surface where he made his bones.

Factors:

1) Arguably fastest TG #s in the race.
2) Two Grade 1 SWs over Belmont inner last year.
3) Will go well firm while others (Winchester, Grand Couturier and Interpatation)
may prefer softer ground.
4) Snappy bullet work last Monday.
5) Inside post in large field; do not know if temp rail has been up on Inner
Course; another plus if it has, no?
6) Dubai race without Lasix wasn\'t that bad.
7) GP\'s main competition is probably Court Vision (a bit camera shy lately) and
Just as Well, who comes back out of the Dixie at Pimlico on Preakness Day.

Thoughts?

[jack72906]

Very wide open and very difficult IMO. I agree with all of the points about Gio, especially #3. With scattered thunderstorms in the forecast the next couple of days we could very well see a soft turf course.

I took a brief look at the Acorn last night and based on pattern/lay offs there looks to be a few that could move forward. Tidal Pool will probably take a fair amount of money, but this will be her 3rd race in 6 weeks and a wide post position screams play against. Amen H looks good coming back and gets a better post, but there are a few in here that are going the synth/dirt route that could jump up as well. 4 or 5 deep may not be enough in this one.

Good luck.

[TreadHead]

I\'m going to try to beat Gio Ponti here, dont like the gap in his workout tab and like to wait a race when they get back from Dubai to make sure they are fully recovered.  Also don\'t like the rail for him here, there are a few that will try for the front and there seems to be the possibility of a troubled trip if he gets boxed in.  Either that or will have to swing wide to get around everyone who has pinched in as he comes from off the pace.

Goldberg is just on fire, and while Strike a Deal gets a new rider and more company on the front, if he can sit just off and move forward off his last, no reason he can\'t be there.  He should be plenty fresh as long as he is sound.

I think Winchester looks very interesting here, as he will have an honest pace to run at finally and a very fast figure to get back to on soft turf, especially at the weight.  I also think Sheppards horse can move forwad off his last.  Have to throw in Court Vision too, although not convinced 1 1/4 is his best distance.

Jet Propulsion and Pickney Hill are a little scary and not sure what to make of Grand Cs first race out, but I think I will leave them off and keep my ticket at 4 horses for this leg.

[richiebee]

Jack and Tread:

Thanks for the input.

As to the turf condition they are calling for \"hit and miss\" thunderstorms
tonight, tomorrow and Saturday. I am looking at a good chance for firm turf,
and firmly believe the turf will be no worse than good.

Agree about Goldberg but skeptical about Strike a Deal\'s ability to put 2 winning
efforts back to back. His only TG which comes close to GP was accomplished on a
yielding Aq turf 2 years ago. Winchester\'s best LT TG, which would make him
arguably competitive with GP, was accomplished on a yielding turf. Grand
Couturier\'s 2 best lifetime TGs have come on yielding turf courses.

Again, I think that on a firm or even good course, taking the weight into
consideration, GP is arguably faster than all of his main rivals based on his TG#s.

Can GP have a bad trip? Was World War II noisy?

Agree that the lightly raced Pinckney Hill, who made a nice forward move in his
last race and would need a similar forward move to compete here, is a decent play
in the vertical gimmicks at a price; his trainer, Angel Penna, is in my opinion
in the top 3 or 4 turf trainers in the US.

[Lost Cause]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Angel Penna, is in my opinion
> in the top 3 or 4 turf trainers in the US.


Does anyone know why Angel Penna does not get more horses?  He has been solid for a long time but never seems to get good horses.  Is he tough to deal with?

[ajkreider]

Gio\'s trainer has commented that he\'s unsure of the fitness of his horse.  Sounds like a bet against as the fav.

Also agree about PH.  Looked fantastic as a 3 year old at GP.  Running a 1:33 and change for a mile.  Then disappeared. Good effort last time.  Worth a shot at 10-1 or better.