Stately Victor

[alm]

Does anyone know why he is entered in the Belmont?

Unless you think Maker is an idiot and has no idea this is a poly horse, he is entering to win.  Right?

If Maker thinks he can win, shouldn\'t we respect that?  Or should we DIS him?

Help me.

[covelj70]

I\'m with you on this one Alm.

I am going to use him along with Ice Box and Game on Dude.

Those are my three.

SV has that 1 to run back to, he is bred for this, I like the jock who knows how to win this race and I will take the chance at 15-1 that he will like this surface given how much his daddy loved this strip.

Good luck

[MonmouthGuy]

Covelj70.

I remember that you wrote that MMfM wasn\'t working well at Belmont.  

Understanding that it is not how fast they work, but how they work fast, is the 5/31 bullet misleading for some reason?  Like Ice Box, it is similar to his pre-KD work.

[covelj70]

they had to take the horse to breeze at the training track because he wasn\'t picking up the bit on the main track.  The trainer made these comments publicly, that wasn\'t anything I picked up on the backstretch.

the bullet was on the training track, the bad works were on the main track

that\'s not a good sign to me.  

unfortunately for mmfm, they run on the main track

[MonmouthGuy]

Thanks for the info.

[nyc1347]

DIS him!  off with his head!  =)  SV has proven last year and this year to run his BEST on poly.. i have no clue why hes in this race and ANY top dirt effort wouldnt come close to winning.. even a pair off his last slop race (which doesnt make senese to me since it wont be raining) wouldnt be close to good enough here.. imo pass completely and wait for his next poly start!

[covelj70]

NYC,

You could be right about him being a poly/turf horse only but he did run a 4 last time and he was suppossed to bounce based on the pattern so its a tough one for me.  I am sure I am putting too much empahsis on this but SV\'s daddy LOVED Belmont and he\'s built like a horse who would like this track.

I just can\'t get the \"1\" he ran in the Blue Grass out of my head at these odds.

at 15-1, I feel like I am getting paid to find out but I hear ya on the risks.

thanks for the thoughts

[TreadHead]

Our tickets look very similar with the 3 you mentioned Cov, but I am also throwing in Interactif.  The analysis seems to be saying his siblings are \"turf only\" horses, but I don\'t know how you can say that given that most of them never even tried dirt.  Fair to say they probably would prefer turf, but do you really know they hated dirt when most of them didn\'t ever race over it?

Additionally they were by horses like Silver Hawk and Red Ransom, who are confirmed turf profiles anyway, whereas Broken Vow is much more versatile and slightly prefer dirt according to sire profile.  Now maybe the turf prowess is just as much on the dam side, and that would be a fair point, but at the odds we are going to get, hoping for one of the 50% \"dirt explosions\" seems like a reasonable risk to take here.

[nyc1347]

i understand where you are coming from but that 4 effort last out was h_pace and slop.  seems like the derby for some was a toss effort (lookin at lucky, jackson bend as they ran better next out) and an effort for others (paddy o prado, super saver where they bounced).  SV did bounce 3 points but imo wouldve ran a poorer effort if it wasnt for the softer slop surface.  Even tossing that slop idea out his dirt figures are 9, 12, 8 and 4(slop).  IF he goes back to a top dirt effort that was slop it be a 4 (which isnt good enough).. and obviously anything slower would be a terrible race.  His poly efforts were a 6 and a 1 with big spacing between those efforts. Doesnt add up to me but I guess youll be getting the odds for it so thats a good thing.

Just wondering..  IF you are personally looking at SV to run his 1 number on this surface when looking at poly why isnt your opinion on Interactif consistent with the same thought with his turf numbers?

[covelj70]

Tread and NYC,

I like Interactif a little in this but I have to draw the line somewhere otherwise I loose my value!

Good luck.

Mike D, brutal beat in the Brooklyn, I am so sorry.

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Tread and NYC,
>
> I like Interactif a little in this but I have to
> draw the line somewhere otherwise I loose my
> value!
>
> Good luck.
>
> Mike D, brutal beat in the Brooklyn, I am so
> sorry.


I still love this game Jim. Love it.

Good luck tomorrow. Let\'s hope this doesn\'t turn into a washout!!

[covelj70]

Mike D,

Funny how much you talk about loving this game

I am right there with you.

I ran one at Belmont yesterday.  He was 17-1 so it wasn\'t like I was expecting to get my picture taken and I didn\'t as he finished 5th.  But even though we weren\'t competitive, I couldn\'t have possibly enjoyed the day out there anymore.

Just chilling at a beautiful racetrack on a beautiful Thursday afternoon.

All of the characters that are out there, hanging with your trainer and friends.

What an amazing game.

Tomorrow should be awesome but first let\'s try to build a little bankroll with this Friday night pick 6 carryover at Hollywood!

good luck

[Rick B.]

FWIW -- Stately Victor is what I call the \"proportionate\" favorite in the Brooklyn / Belmont double.

This is an old \"smell test\" I perform to see where some of the money is hiding.

It\'s a little tricky to use this shortcut, as you have to have a) decent sized pools, and b) a morning line you can trust. I feel like I have both of those here.

You simply take the ML odds for each horse, and divide them into the corresponding DD will pay; the lower the quotient, the stronger the action on that horse.

If everybody comes in around the same number, you have a relatively balanced pool...and no real edge or inside info.

Four horses: Uptowncharlybrown, Make Music For Me, Drosselmeyer and Interactif are in the low 20\'s (i.e., same).

The rest all come in with higher numbers, except Stately Victor. His number is a 16, which is significant: he\'s on many more live tickets than his ML would have you believe.

Again, FWIW.

[Silver Charm]

People are looking patterns and lines. Why not look at his Derby Chart. He made up 15 lengths in half mile to draw within 3.5 of the lead at the 1/4 pole but still had 9 horses in front of him.

He tired in the lane but maybe there was a bump or he made a BURIED middle move.

Trainer is good in this layoff category and has phenominal ROI in Graded Stakes.

[sekrah]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> People are looking patterns and lines. Why not
> look at his Derby Chart. He made up 15 lengths in
> half mile to draw within 3.5 of the lead at the
> 1/4 pole



The problem is about 3/4\'s of the field made up this distance as the pace collapsed up front.  Making the \"moves\" they all made look less impressive.