Mountaineer Race 10

[nyc1347]

with 4 min to race i just placed a $5000 show wager (online account that doesnt go into pools) on the 10 horse.  why?  its a 2/5 show currently with money spread in the show pool and its not even a FAVE! how is this even possible?!  CLEARLY EASY money!.. imo

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> with 4 min to race i just placed a $5000 show
> wager (online account that doesnt go into pools)
> on the 10 horse.  why?  its a 2/5 show currently
> with money spread in the show pool and its not
> even a FAVE! how is this even possible?!  CLEARLY
> EASY money!.. imo

#10 Press The Limit ML 5/2 ***favorite ***

[nyc1347]

he was TONS the best on paper and JUST lost on a 5 wide trip around the track.. i just made $1000 on the race and THIS is the reason i do show wagers.

[nyc1347]

AND my rebate of $150.

[Rick B.]

Congrats.

Do it 4 more times (without losing one), and you will have doubled your money.

Post before and after 4 more times without losing, and maybe you will attract some followers, but not me: you are engaging in way, way too much risk for far too little reward, IMO. Too damn many ways to lose, and only 3 ways to win, to stomach such a pathetically small return.

Honestly, you seem like the kind of guy that would accept 4/5 on a coin flip, then crow about what a \"good bet\" it was because you hit heads 8 times in a row.

BTW...have you ever told the forum about losing one of these $5000 show bets?

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> AND my rebate of $150.

Which offshore is still offering rebates on show bets?
 
And when was the last time you got any money out of them?

You REALLY like to play with fire, don\'t you?

[nyc1347]

Rick B. Wrote:
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> Congrats.
>
> Do it 4 more times (without losing one), and you
> will have doubled your money.
>
> Post before and after 4 more times without losing,
> and maybe you will attract some followers, but not
> me: you are engaging in way, way too much risk for
> far too little reward, IMO. Too damn many ways to
> lose, and only 3 ways to win, to stomach such a
> pathetically small return.
>
> Honestly, you seem like the kind of guy that would
> accept 4/5 on a coin flip, then crow about what a
> \"good bet\" it was because you hit heads 8 times in
> a row.
>
> BTW...have you ever told the forum about losing
> one of these $5000 show bets?


everyone has their own style and i respect it completely.  You put up a post about this horse being the favorite BUT that is ML odds for the WIN.  The show pool when I placed the wager had the 10 as 4th favorite and that led me to do the wager at that time. Many times horses do not go off a favorite in the show pool as a ML fave. Even with just the %20 ROI it was in a range of %95-99 to come out. THAT difference im willing to accept in certain situations to make a profit.  Something REALLY ridiculous would have had to happen in order to for that horse not to win let alone hit the board.

a coin flip getting 4/5 odds is no way to compare to the show wagering situaion and would be a ridiculous wager to take.  u give me 6/5 well now we are talking =)

my next 5000 show wager is at belmont on wednesday with Kent.  Settling Seas in the 5th looks like a beautiful show play imo.. take it for what it is and i promise if it comes in it wont be paying a %20 ROI.. more like %100 or so or more and I wont need to hit 4 more times in a row to double the 5000.  Good Luck and il be back wednesday evening.

[nyc1347]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/Reviews/BookMaker/

[Boscar Obarra]

If the \'book\' was seeing people making easy money on this racket over time, they\'d shut you off or put it in the pools.

 They are not stupid.  You might win, but there are others who will make up the diff.

 Hard to imagine they would hold a large show bet at a dinky track.

[nyc1347]

using the website the max profit you can make at Mountaineer is $15,000 per race.

[Rick B.]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> You put up a post about this horse being the
> favorite BUT that is ML odds for the WIN.
> The show pool when I placed the wager had
> the 10 as 4th favorite and that led me to do the
> wager at that time.

\"Small Pool\" syndrome. By the time the race closed, the 10 *was* the favorite in the show pool, with $1955 of the $6558 of the show pool -- about 30%.

> Many times horses do not go off a favorite in the
> show pool as a ML fave.

\"Many times?\" How many? More than half? Can you quantify this with some numbers...or is it just an opinion?

> Even with just the %20 ROI it was in a range of %95-99
> to come out. THAT difference im willing to accept
> in certain situations to make a profit.  Something
> REALLY ridiculous would have had to happen in
> order to for that horse not to win let alone hit
> the board.

Well, something REALLY ridiculous DID happen, because the 10 *did not* win. The 9 did, snapped the 10 off at the wire.

And I disagree completely with your assessment that the 10 had a range of 95% to 99% chance to hit the board. You are in essence saying that if the race was run 100 times, the 10 would have finished off the board a maximum of 5 times.

Hell, at Mountaineer, the jockey would fall off 5 times out of 100, leaving you no wiggle room whatsoever for DQ\'s, breakdowns, a sick / lame horse getting past the track vet, non-triers, etc.

> a coin flip getting 4/5 odds is no way to compare
> to the show wagering situaion and would be a
> ridiculous wager to take.

Any example where the expected payoff is less than the actual odds of winning the bet will do when discussing \"the show situation\".

You simply aren\'t playing into very many overlay situations with show betting: you are risking way too much capital -- exposing yourself to far too many losing scenarios -- for too little overall return. Lose 1 out of 5, and you don\'t even break even. Lose 2 of 5, and now you are hurting. How many bad results out of 20 can you withstand before you are wiped out?

Plus, Boscar O. is correct -- win too much, and the offshore will simply cut you off.

If you happen to be winning with this methodology now, God bless you, and by all means, enjoy your 15 minutes of pari-mutuel fame. It ain\'t gonna last. I\'m not wishing anything bad on you, and even if were a cruel sort, I don\'t have to do that: the numbers will simply eat you up, over time.

[nyc1347]

Your assuming a %20 ROI though Rick.  Thats the case in THIS situation but there are many more situations where a horse will pay between %50-100 and I will have about an equal chance to win that wager.  I picked this ONE situation out of so many out there because of the edge I saw with how all the others matched up in the race.  If the conditions and factors were similar with other races with what I saw today I would have expected a huge percentage of the time for a horse like that to hit the board.  Assuming just a %20 ROI I would need that horse to run 81 or more out of 100 times in the money to profit.  I genuinely thought that THIS situation was a minimum of %95 to do it according to others in the race and i really thought i would also get at least %40 ROI.  The post delay and late scratch didnt help.

[nyc1347]

This is going to be a HUGE wager for me on settling seas as I am adding a few more k into the show wager.. the more I look at this horse the more I love her timing and line compared to the others.  Looks to be a minimum of %100 ROI or more and the fave imo is a complete underlay/toss this race.

[Lost Cause]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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> This is going to be a HUGE wager for me on
> settling seas as I am adding a few more k into the
> show wager.. the more I look at this horse the
> more I love her timing and line compared to the
> others.  Looks to be a minimum of %100 ROI or more
> and the fave imo is a complete underlay/toss this
> race.

In the end you won..Congrats man..Hope you backwheeled the exacta a few times also.

[nyc1347]

LC

thanks man.. its been working great and il just stick to this to contribute to the board and let my opinions speak for themselves.  this was another great example of losing money if i were to do a win wager.  i would be down $12,000 right now instead of up $4500 with my last 2 show wagers.. thats a HUGE swing.  People on here dont seem to understand that I extract a racing situation every so often where there is a HUGE racing edge against the competition and imo and what ive experienced, the ROI exceeds the realistic chance on paper of it being a winning wager.  

Just because theres lets say a random 8 horse race where only 3 horses that can show in it doesnt mean you have a true 3 out of 8 chance.. yes there are 8 horses BUT by extracting that one situation in a day you can seclude yourself into a race where there are 3 or 4 slugs (a competition edge)and the ROI is %100 in that situation... giving you a 3 out of 4 or 3 out of 5 shot to win and getting a great return... and thats without mentioning having the fastest or one of the fastest horses in the race (realistically giving you a better chance overall).. other situations might present the same scenario but only offer %20..  Happens everyday.. but being selective and aware of what the public is wagering along with projected ROI with the money in the pools you can make a profit over time.  Takes a ridiculous amounts of discipline though.

I do understand where people are coming from and roll their eyes to this but to me you just cant extract a race as efficiently when doing lets say an exacta or trifecta wager.  There are many more variables involved and with THOSE wagers and its actually wagering against yourself in a way.  If you do not have a straight exacta as an example the more you \"cover\" yourself (boxing, wheels, etc)the less ROI you get back since more money has to be put up.  Unless you have a longshot its not worth it and those wagers are a much harder way to make any kind of living.